Germany could suffer economic losses of around 40 billion euros if this winter turns out colder than average, gas utility Uniper has warned in a report that said such a development could plunge Germany into a recession. Every year, as October begins and with it, quite often, heating season, Europe begins a race to fill its gas storage facilities in time to secure a comfortable level of stocks ahead of peak demand for electricity and heat. Norway stands ready to step up gas exports to the European Union, U ...

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. A surprisingly weak private-sector ADP Employment report, released during an ongoing government shutdown, has intensified fears of a looming economic downturn. Economist Warns Recession Odds Are Not At 0% Level U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs in September, a stark reversal from consensus expectations of a 51,000 gain. The losses were driven entirely by small and medium-sized businesses, ...

A surprisingly weak private-sector ADP Employment report, released during an ongoing government shutdown, has intensified fears of a looming economic downturn.Economist Warns Recession Odds Are Not At 0% LevelU.S. private payrolls unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs in September, a stark reversal from consensus expectations of a 51,000 gain. The losses were driven entirely by small and medium-sized businesses, painting a troubling picture of the U.S. economy.With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suspending it ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the U.S. economy, indicating signs of a slowdown following a significant revision in job data by the Labor Department [2][3] Economic Outlook - Dimon stated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of "slowing down," with a revision of nonfarm payrolls data reducing the job count by 911,000 compared to earlier estimates, marking the largest revision in over 20 years [2][6] - The current economic environment features a weakening consumer sentiment despite strong corporate profits, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [4] Federal Reserve Actions - Dimon indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate in the next meeting, although he expressed skepticism about the potential impact of such a move on the economy [5] Labor Market Concerns - The unexpected downward revision in job data has raised alarms regarding the strength of the U.S. labor market, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing an overstatement of job growth by 911,000 for the year through March 2025 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Group 1 - Udemy experienced a significant stock price decline of nearly 12% in April, attributed to investor sentiment and external economic factors [1] - The company underwent a sudden CEO transition from Greg Brown to Hugo Sarrazin, which contributed to shareholder unease [2][6] - An analyst downgrade from Truist Securities reduced the price target for Udemy from $10 to $7, reflecting concerns about the company's positioning in a potential recession [4][6] Group 2 - The economic climate is causing fears of a recession, which typically leads consumers to cut back on non-discretionary spending, impacting Udemy's business model [5] - Despite reporting a more than tripled non-GAAP net income of nearly $17.9 million year over year, Udemy's revenue growth was only 2%, reaching slightly over $200 million [8] - Current guidance for the second quarter and full year was in line with analyst expectations, but the overall sentiment remains cautious regarding Udemy's potential for significant growth [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines is facing significant challenges due to potential economic downturns, leading to a sharp decline in stock price and the withdrawal of crucial profitability guidance for 2025 and 2026 [1][6]. Company Performance - In the first quarter of 2024, Southwest Airlines reported a revenue increase of less than 2% year over year, totaling just over $6.4 billion, which was in line with analyst expectations [4]. - The company narrowed its bottom-line loss to $77 million, compared to a shortfall of $218 million in the first quarter of 2024. The non-GAAP net loss improved to $0.13 per share from $0.36, beating the consensus projection of $0.17 [5]. Industry Context - The airline industry is highly sensitive to economic conditions, particularly discretionary consumer spending, which tends to decline during recessions [2][4]. - A study by Bank of America Institute indicated a 2.5% year-over-year decrease in weekly consumer spending on lodging as of March 22, suggesting a waning post-pandemic travel demand [8]. - The potential for a recession could exacerbate the already challenging environment for the airline and tourism industries, making recovery difficult for companies like Southwest Airlines [9].

Group 1 - The stock market has rebounded sharply from year-to-date lows due to renewed optimism for trade deals, but the economy is still bracing for a recession as the Q1 earnings season progresses [1] - Consumer spending is highlighted as a significant factor in the current economic landscape [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing insights into industry themes [1] - He has been a contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been quoted in various web publications, with his articles syndicated to popular trading apps like Robinhood [1]