Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is a leading provider of chip fabrication equipment, with a market capitalization of $180 billion and reported $18 billion in revenue over the past twelve months [3][4] - The company is set to announce its earnings on October 22, 2025, with consensus expectations predicting earnings of $1.22 per share on revenue of $5.23 billion, compared to $1.28 per share and $4.17 billion in revenue from the previous year [3] Financial Performance - In the last twelve months, Lam Research achieved an operating profit of $5.9 billion and a net income of $5.4 billion [3] - The stock has shown significant long-term appreciation, increasing by 210% from $45 in early January 2021 to approximately $140, outperforming the S&P 500's rise of around 75% during the same period [4] Historical Earnings Volatility - The stock's post-earnings movement has not displayed a strong historical trend, with an equal likelihood of rising or falling after earnings announcements [4] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 documented earnings data points, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating a balanced volatility [10] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can assess historical odds and position themselves accordingly before earnings announcements, with a median gain of 5.7% on positive one-day returns and a median loss of -3.3% on negative returns [6][10] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can provide a strategy for positioning after earnings releases [8][9]

Group 1 - Kinder Morgan, Inc. is a leading energy infrastructure company in North America, focusing on the ownership and operation of oil and gas pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities [2] - The company is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings on October 15, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.30 per share on $3.98 billion in revenue, reflecting a 7% increase in earnings and an 8% rise in sales compared to the previous year [3][4] - Kinder Morgan currently has a market capitalization of $60 billion, with total revenue of $16 billion, operational profits of $4.5 billion, and net income of $2.7 billion over the last twelve months [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that Kinder Morgan's stock has decreased after earnings announcements 55% of the time, with a median one-day decline of 1.5% and a maximum drop of 6% [3] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Kinder Morgan, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 45% of the time [6] - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can provide a trading strategy, where a positive one-day return may lead to a long position for the following five days [7]

Core Insights - GameStop is set to announce its earnings on September 9, 2025, with historical volatility observed in its stock price following earnings announcements [2][4] - The company has diversified its business model beyond traditional video game sales, now including physical and digital products, as well as cryptocurrency investments exceeding $500 million [3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts project earnings of $0.16 per share on revenue of $823 million, a significant increase from $0.01 per share on sales of $798 million in the same quarter last year [4] - GameStop's current market capitalization stands at $10 billion, with reported revenue of $3.7 billion, an operating profit of $59 million, and a net income of $208 million over the past twelve months [4] Historical Stock Performance - Over the past five years, GameStop's stock has shown an even distribution of positive and negative one-day returns, with a median positive return of 8.9% and a maximum gain of 35.2% on positive days [2][11] - Conversely, on negative days, the median return was -16.6%, with the largest decline reaching -39.4% [2][11] - The likelihood of positive one-day returns post-earnings is approximately 50%, increasing to 58% when considering the last three years [11] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can benefit from understanding historical trends, as actual outcomes relative to consensus estimates will significantly influence stock performance [3][7] - Pre-earnings positioning involves evaluating historical chances of achieving positive returns, while post-earnings positioning focuses on analyzing immediate and medium-term returns to guide trading decisions [7][8]

Core Insights - MongoDB is set to release its earnings on August 26, 2025, with historical stock movements showing unpredictability post-earnings, having an equal chance of rising or falling [2][5] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, MongoDB's stock has exhibited significant volatility, with a positive one-day return in 50% of cases, yielding a median gain of 18.5%, while the other 50% resulted in a median loss of -9.5% [3][12] - From January 2021 to the present, MongoDB's stock has decreased by 40%, dropping from approximately $360 to $220, contrasting with a 70% increase in the S&P 500 during the same period [4] Earnings Expectations - The market consensus anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 on revenue of $553.6 million for the upcoming earnings report, compared to the previous year's adjusted earnings of $0.70 per share on revenue of $478.1 million [5] Financial Overview - MongoDB currently has a market capitalization of $18 billion and generated $2.1 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, but reported an operating loss of -$171 million and a net income loss of -$86 million [6] Trading Strategies - For event-driven traders, understanding historical patterns is crucial, with two potential trading approaches based on earnings results compared to expectations [5][8] - A strategy involving pre-earnings positioning and post-earnings analysis can help traders make informed decisions based on historical correlations between short-term and medium-term returns [10][11]

Core Insights - Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY) is scheduled to report its earnings on August 21, 2025, with historical data indicating a 55% chance of a positive one-day return post-earnings, averaging a median gain of 9.1% [2][7] - The consensus for the upcoming quarter anticipates earnings per share of $2.11 on revenue of $2.34 billion, compared to $1.75 on $2.08 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - Workday's current market capitalization is $62 billion, with trailing twelve months revenue of $8.7 billion, an operating profit of $640 million, and net income of $487 million [4] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Workday has had 20 earnings observations, resulting in 11 positive and 9 negative one-day moves, with a positive return occurring 55% of the time [7] - The likelihood of a positive return increases to 67% when focusing on the last three years, with a median of 9.1% for positive returns and -5.6% for negative returns [7] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical patterns to inform their positions, assessing both pre-earnings and post-earnings strategies [6] - A correlation analysis between one-day, five-day, and twenty-one-day returns can help traders identify the best timing for trades following earnings announcements [8] Peer Influence - Workday's post-earnings reaction may be influenced by the earnings results of its peers, with pricing often adjusting before Workday's own report [9]

Group 1 - Palo Alto Networks is set to announce its fiscal Q4 earnings on August 18, with historical stock performance showing a positive one-day return in 65% of cases over the past five years, with a median return of 7.7% [2][7] - Analysts estimate earnings of $0.89 per share on $2.5 billion in revenue, an increase from the previous year's earnings of $0.75 per share on $2.19 billion in revenue [3] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $112 billion, with $8.9 billion in revenue, an operating profit of $984 million, and a net income of $1.2 billion over the last twelve months [4] Group 2 - Historical data shows that there are 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, indicating a 65% chance of positive returns [7] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can inform trading strategies, with a focus on the strongest correlations between 1D and 5D returns [8] Group 3 - Peer performance can influence post-earnings stock reactions, with historical data comparing Palo Alto Networks' stock performance to peers that reported earnings just before it [9]

Group 1 - Aramark is set to announce its Q3 2025 earnings on August 5, 2025, with analysts predicting adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share and revenue of $4.66 billion, reflecting a 29% increase in earnings and a 6% rise in sales year-over-year [2] - In Q2 2025, Aramark reported a 2% increase in revenue to $4.28 billion and achieved 3% organic growth, with operating income rising 9% to $174 million and adjusted EPS increasing 22% to $0.34 [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $11 billion and reported total revenue of $18 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $772 million and net income of $348 million [4] Group 2 - Historical data shows that Aramark's stock has a 50% probability of moving up or down after earnings announcements, with an average one-day increase of 3.5% and a maximum gain of 10% [2][7] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 documented earnings data points for Aramark, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, maintaining a consistent 50% rate of positive returns [7] - The company reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting organic revenue growth of 7.5%–9.5% and adjusted EPS growth of 23%–28% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co., Inc. is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, which could provide insights for event-driven traders [2][3]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict earnings of $2.03 per share on revenue of $15.87 billion for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a decrease from $2.28 per share and $16.11 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year [3]. - The anticipated decline in sales is attributed to challenges faced by Gardasil in China, despite growth in Keytruda sales [3]. Financial Performance - Merck has a market capitalization of approximately $212 billion and generated $64 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $20 billion and a net income of $17 billion [4]. Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the last five years, Merck's stock has shown negative one-day returns 60% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median drop of -2.1% and a maximum decline of -9.8% [2][6]. - In the last three years, the proportion of positive one-day returns increased to 50%, with a median of 1.7% for positive returns and -2.1% for negative returns [6]. Post-Earnings Return Strategy - Traders may consider establishing positions before earnings announcements based on historical probabilities, and evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-announcement [5][7]. - Correlation data indicates that understanding the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns can guide trading strategies, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [7]. Peer Influence - The performance of peers can impact Merck's post-earnings reactions, with historical data suggesting that pricing may begin ahead of the earnings announcement [8].

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is set to announce its earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a strong likelihood of positive one-day returns post-announcement, occurring in 70% of cases [2][6] - The analysts' consensus for the upcoming quarter is earnings of $1.42 per share on revenues of $20.85 billion, reflecting modest growth expectations compared to the previous year's earnings of $1.40 per share on revenues of $20.53 billion [3] - P&G currently has a market capitalization of approximately $372 billion, with $84 billion in revenue over the past year, $20 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $15 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, P&G has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day returns, resulting in a median increase of 2.2% for positive returns and a median decrease of -2.9% for negative returns [6] - The probability of positive one-day returns drops to 67% when considering the last three years instead of five [6] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical trends to position themselves ahead of earnings releases or analyze post-earnings returns to inform their trading strategies [5][7] - A strategy based on the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be effective, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation [7][8]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) is scheduled to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.94 per share on revenue of $111.6 billion, compared to last year's earnings of $6.80 per share on revenues of $98.86 billion, indicating a contraction in profit margins due to rising medical costs [2][3] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Over the past five years, UNH stock has shown positive one-day returns after earnings announcements in 53% of cases, with a median one-day gain of 4.0% and a maximum increase of 7.2% [2][7] - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 45%, with a median of 4.0% for positive returns and -2.9% for negative returns [7] Group 2: Financial Metrics - UnitedHealth has a current market capitalization of approximately $267 billion, generating $410 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $33 billion and a net income of $22 billion, reflecting strong operational profitability [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical data to position themselves ahead of earnings releases or analyze post-earnings returns to guide their trading strategies [5][9] - Understanding the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D, 21D) returns can help traders make informed decisions based on historical performance [9]