TOM: IN. THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE AND THESE OF THE STORIES THAT SIT YOUR AGENDA. GLOBAL STOCKS HAD A RECORD AFTER U.S. INFLATION DATA FUELS BETS ON A FED CUT NEXT MONTH.THE TREASURY SECRETARY SAYS 50 BASIS AND SHOULD BE IN PLAY. SCOTT BESSENT RULES OUT THE POSSIBILITY CHINESE INVESTMENT IN THE U.S. COULD BE PART OF A TRADE PACT. WE WILL SPEAK WITH THE TREASURY SECRETARY LATER TODAY.UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SAYS HE WILL NOT SEE THE -- CEDE DONBAS TO RUSSIA AS HE PUSHES TO BE INCLUDED IN TALKS ...

🇺🇸 LATEST: Odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September have surged to 69%, while chances of no change dropped to 24%, according to Polymarket. https://t.co/qGJd03TuRZ ...

🚨 LATEST: Market odds of a Fed rate cut in September have surged to 75%. https://t.co/QSYKaX96bx ...

Labor Market Overview - ADP报告显示，非农就业人数减少33,000，远低于预期的100,000，为2023年3月以来的首次下降[1] - 预计非农就业人数（包括政府和私营部门）为110,000，ADP连续第二个月表现疲软[2] - 小型企业就业人数下降47,000，中型企业下降15,000，大型企业增加30,000[3] - 专业和商业服务部门就业人数减少56,000，教育和医疗服务部门减少52,000，金融活动部门减少14,000[3] - 制造业就业人数增加15,000，休闲和酒店业增加32,000[4] Wage Trends - 仍在职员工的工资上涨4.4%，跳槽员工的工资上涨6.8%，较上月下降210[4] ADP vs BLS Discrepancy - ADP与BLS私营部门数据的平均绝对差异扩大至每月77,000[5] - 过去12个月内，两者相差约200,000，即每月约14,000[6][7] Economic Impact and Fed Policy - 就业数据疲软将增加美联储降息的压力，但不会改变其对潜在通胀的担忧，加剧了滞胀担忧[7] - 市场对ADP数据持矛盾态度，但可能反映了就业市场疲软的趋势[6] Tariffs and Uncertainty - 关税和不确定性可能对小型企业造成损害，影响其招聘决策[3][13][14] - 进口关税可能对经济产生数学影响，但特朗普政府可能夸大了其影响[18][19] Market Outlook - 劳动力市场可能正在放缓，但可能只是一个小挫折，未来可能会出现复苏[8][9][11][12] - 市场对劳动力市场放缓的反应可能存在矛盾，可能出现反趋势反弹[11]

Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing a rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs due to eased trade worries and geopolitical tensions [1][6] - The S&P 500 has gained nearly 20% from its April lows and is up 5% year to date, closing at 6,204.95 points [6] - The Nasdaq closed at 20,369.73, also marking a new all-time high [6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has rebounded for the first time in six months, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising 16.3% to 60.7 in June from May's 52.2, marking the largest monthly increase in over 30 years [3][9] - This increase in consumer sentiment is attributed to positive developments, including a potential trade deal with China and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants are anticipating at least two 25 basis point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations for the first cut as early as July [7] Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Consumer discretionary stocks such as Interface, Inc. (TILE), Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL), Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE), and fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) are identified as having strong potential in 2025, each holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [2][9] - Interface, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 8.2% for the current year, with a 2.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [8] - Carnival Corporation & plc is projected to have a 38% earnings growth rate for the current year, with a 5.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [10] - Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 8.8%, with a 1.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [12] - fuboTV Inc. is expected to see a 69% earnings growth rate for next year, with a 25% improvement in current-year earnings estimates over the past 60 days [13]

The US and China have signed a trade agreement. US Commerce Secretary Lutnik says it includes a commitment from Beijing to deliver rare earths. But the clock's still ticking for other trading partners worldwide -- scrambling to reach the finish line before that July 9th tariff increase deadline; US economic data boosts bets the Fed will cut rates at least twice this year... Traders now focusing on PCE data today and the jobs report next week for more clues; and Iran rejects claims that nuclear talks with US ...