Core Insights - Nvidia is planning to release a new GPU based on the Blackwell architecture as a response to the ban on the H20, which is based on the Hopper architecture [2][4] - Jefferies' analysis suggests that the US may impose a memory bandwidth limit of 1.7-1.8TB/s on GPUs, which could lead Nvidia to switch from HBM to GDDR6 for the downgraded H20 [3] - A report from Guangfa Overseas predicts that the new GPU, potentially named 6000D or B40, will be launched in early July and will feature GDDR7 with a bandwidth of approximately 1.7TB/s, significantly lower than H20's 4TB/s [3][4] Market Analysis - The expected shipment volume for the new GPU is projected to reach around 1 million units by the end of 2025, supported by NVLink and CUDA technologies [3] - Previous estimates for Huawei's Ascend series shipments in 2025 ranged from 700,000 to 850,000 units, with IDC reporting 640,000 units for 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3] Product Development - The rapid development and anticipated release of the Blackwell-based GPU within a few months of the H20 ban highlight Nvidia's agile design capabilities and collaboration with TSMC [4]

Core Viewpoint - The next-generation Nvidia Blackwell GPU architecture and RTX 50 series GPUs are expected to be released, with significant marketing materials already circulating. The official announcement is anticipated during the CES event on January 6, 2025, by CEO Jensen Huang [1][2]. Release Timeline - The RTX 50 series is projected to launch in January 2025, with potential delays due to packaging issues related to the Blackwell B200 GPU. The announcement is now expected by the end of January 2025, with at least one or two models being released [2][3]. - Historically, Nvidia has released new GPU architectures approximately every two years, and while the Blackwell series is slightly delayed, it remains within the expected timeframe [4][5]. Technical Specifications - The Blackwell B200 will utilize TSMC's 4NP node, an enhanced version of the previous N4 node used in the RTX 40 series. This choice is likely to save costs, although it may open opportunities for competitors like AMD and Intel to adopt more advanced nodes [8][9]. - The upcoming GPUs are expected to feature GDDR7 memory, which is projected to provide significant bandwidth improvements over the current GDDR6X and GDDR6 memory types. GDDR7 aims for speeds up to 36Gbps, representing a 50% increase over GDDR6X [10][11]. Performance Enhancements - The Blackwell architecture is anticipated to include various updates from the previous Ada Lovelace architecture, particularly in tensor cores supporting new numerical formats for AI inference. This could enhance performance in both consumer and professional applications [15][16]. - Expected improvements in ray tracing performance and potential new features like DLSS 4 "neural rendering" are also on the horizon, although specific details remain unclear [17]. Pricing Strategy - Nvidia is unlikely to reduce prices for the RTX 50 series compared to the RTX 40 series, given the current market conditions and demand for AI performance. The pricing structure may remain high, reflecting the increased demand in non-gaming sectors [18][19]. - The anticipated pricing for the RTX 5090 could reach as high as $1,500 or more, with budget GPUs now starting around $300, indicating a shift in market segmentation [19].