Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 The Risks to US Inflation from the War with Iran 23 March 2026 | 5:22PM CDT Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST n Our commodities strategists now expect Brent oil pric ...

American GDP growth slowed after the last big oil shock, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The economic hit may be harder this time https://t.co/Zuuf8cTZos ...

>> THE FED HOLDING INTEREST RATES STEADY IN A RANGE OF THREE AND A HALF TO 3.25%, THAT WAS, AS EXPECTED, THE LATEST SO-CALLED DOT PLOT OF FED MEMBERS RATE PROJECTIONS, INDICATING THAT THE CENTRAL BANK COULD CUT RATES ONCE THIS YEAR AND ONCE NEXT YEAR BY 25 BASIS POINTS EACH TIME. OFFICIALS SEE A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE OF GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY DID. BUT THEY ALSO SEE HIGHER INFLATION GROWTH IN 2027 PROJECTED A 2.3%.THAT'S HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2% FORECAST. FED CHAIR JAY POWELL SAYING THAT ...

LIVE FROM THE INVEST PHILIPPINE SUMMIT IN MANILA, THIS IS INSIGHT WITH HASLINDA AMIN. WE ARE DIVING INTO THE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA AMID TANGLED SUPPLY CHAINS AND DEEPENING ECONOMIC PRESSURE. THE PHILIPPINES IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON FUEL AND REMITTANCES AND POLICYMAKERS ARE BEING FORCED TO RECONSIDER THE PATH FORWARD AS THEY CONSIDER DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASES, WHAT -- RISING POWER COSTS AND A WEAKENING PESO.THE WAR IN IRAN MAY BE THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY BUT ECONOMIC SHOCK WAVES ARE FILIPINO ...

Central Bank Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy with no changes this week, aligning with prior expectations despite recent geopolitical tensions [2][13] - Updated projections and the dot plot will be released, which may reflect an increase in inflation expectations and a slight slowdown in economic growth and higher unemployment rates [3][12] Economic Indicators - Economic fundamentals remain important, with the Q4 GDP report showing a revision that slashed growth expectations in half, yet underlying trends suggest stability with GDP growth around or above 2% [10][11] - The labor market shows signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims, although the February jobs report was weaker than anticipated [11][12] Market Reactions - The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding immediate policy changes in response to inflation concerns, and will assess the duration of current geopolitical conflicts before making decisions [14] - Investor positioning suggests a need for patience, as the Fed is not expected to overreact to short-term inflationary pressures [12][14] Global Bond Market Dynamics - There are significant movements in global bond markets, with shifts in bond yields observed both in the US and overseas, indicating changing outlooks for fixed income investments [17][19] - The interest rate differentials between the US and other economies may influence demand for US Treasuries, with the dollar remaining a strong reserve currency despite some waning demand [18][20][21]

Economic Overview - The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% annualized, down 0.7 percentage points from its advance estimate [2] - The January Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index showed a 3.1% annual increase, up from the previous 3%, indicating a further departure from the Fed's 2% target [2] Market Performance - U.S. stocks settled lower, with the S&P 500 recording a 1.6% loss last week, the Dow dipping about 2%, and the Nasdaq declining 1.3% during the week [3] - On Friday, the Dow Jones closed lower by around 119 points to 46,558.47, the S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632.19, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.93% at 22,105.36 [4] Sector Analysis - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with information technology, materials, and communication services stocks recording the biggest losses on Friday [4] - Consumer staples and utilities stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher [4] Investor Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed an increase in the overall fear level, remaining in the "Extreme Fear" zone with a current reading of 20, down from a prior reading of 22.5 [1][5]

Group 1 - The economy is currently exhibiting mixed signals, with contradictory trends observed over several months [1] - Identifying megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and potential investment opportunities [1] - The importance of focusing on fundamentals, leadership quality, and product pipelines is emphasized for successful investing [1] Group 2 - The analyst has experience in evaluating startups and emerging industries, particularly in the context of international development and non-profit work [1] - There is a growing interest in macrotrends, futurism, and emerging technologies as key areas for investment analysis [1] - The integration of personal interests in megatrends with a focus on fundamentals and technicals is seen as vital for uncovering investment opportunities [1]

Wall Street is digesting a raft of economic data that could bolster the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. The FOMC meets next week. Bloomberg's Michael McKee reports on consumer spending and US GDP growth. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit http://www.bloomberg.com for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, ...

U.S. GDP grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with the forecast of 1.4%. The pace of growth has slowed noticeably.In such a situation, the Federal Reserve has more room not to keep interest rates high for too long. https://t.co/5km444582o ...

Core Viewpoint - India's external balance and government finances are at risk due to high oil prices driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which could lead to increased oil import costs and necessary subsidies for key commodities [1][3]. Current Account Deficit - India is highly vulnerable to global oil shocks, importing nearly 90% of its crude and about 50% of its gas, with current oil stocks sufficient for only 20 to 25 days [2]. - An average oil price of $100 per barrel could widen India's current account deficit to 1.9%-2.2% of GDP for the 2026/27 financial year, up from a projected 0.7%-0.8% [4]. Fiscal Deficit - The federal government's annual expenditure may increase by 3.6 trillion rupees ($39 billion) if oil prices average $100 per barrel, with total estimated expenditure for the next financial year at 53.5 trillion rupees [5]. - Fertilizer subsidies could rise by 200 billion rupees, and the government may need to compensate oil marketing companies to keep retail fuel prices low [6]. Growth and Inflation Impact - India's economy is projected to grow over 7% in the next financial year, but if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, GDP growth could decline to 6.6% and inflation could rise to 4.1% [8]. - If oil prices average $130 per barrel, GDP growth could drop further to 6% [8].