The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce the decisions taken in its first meeting of 2026 on Friday. Led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, the six-member panel will deliberate on key aspects like interest rates, inflation targets, and growth projections. This meeting comes after the RBI’s December 2025 decision to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking a cumulative cut of 125 basis points throughout 2025. (RBI)Date and TimeThe bi-monthly MPC meeting ...

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has advanced 1% year to date, and the benchmark index for U.S. stocks sits within a percentage point of its record high. However, the economic fallout from President Trump's tariffs, coupled with high valuations and midterm elections, could cause the stock market to decline sharply or even crash in 2026. Here's what investors should know. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join S ...

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep policy rates unchanged at its meeting on Friday, signalling a prolonged pause after aggressive front-loaded easing over the past year, even as liquidity conditions remain tight and bond yields elevated. A Mint poll of 10 economists shows nine expecting a pause at 5.25%, while one anticipates a 25-basis-points (bps) cut to 5.00%. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. The MPC is scheduled to announce its polic ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic outlook for the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions, focusing on monetary policy, inflation, and GDP growth forecasts. Core Points and Arguments US Economic Outlook - The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% in a split decision of 10-2, aligning with consensus expectations [4] - Anticipation of two 25 basis point cuts in June and September, potentially lowering the rate to 3-3.25% [5] - Better growth news and signs of labor market stabilization suggest the FOMC is positioned to hold rates steady while assessing incoming data [5] - Q4 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to +2.0%, influenced by a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders and a widening trade deficit [5] Euro Area Economic Outlook - Euro area real GDP increased by 0.3% in Q4, surpassing expectations [6] - Inflation in January was slightly above expectations in Spain (2.5% YoY) and Germany (2.13% YoY), leading to an upgrade in the Euro area headline inflation forecast to 1.77% YoY [6] - The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% for the foreseeable future, with no major changes anticipated in the upcoming meeting [6] Asia/EM Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, with expectations for a rate hike in July [10] - The Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, signaling stability until at least the second half of 2027 [8] - Client sentiment from a Global Macro Conference indicated increased optimism about the global economy, with a preference for EM equities, particularly in China and Korea/Taiwan [8] Additional Important Insights - The potential removal of US tariffs could lead to significant changes in trade flows and consumer prices, as evidenced by the experience in Canada [4] - The labor market remains a critical uncertainty in the economic outlook, with expected net job losses in AI-exposed industries [5] - Geopolitical developments are ranked as the highest risk concern among clients [10] Conclusion - The economic outlook across the US, Euro area, and Asia/EM regions shows cautious optimism, with central banks maintaining current rates while monitoring inflation and growth indicators. The potential for tariff changes and labor market dynamics are key factors to watch in the coming months.

Summary of Key Points from the US Economics Analyst Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the US economy, particularly GDP growth, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and fiscal policy implications for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The company forecasts GDP growth at 2.5% for 2026 Q4/Q4, above the consensus of 2.1%. For the full year, the forecast is 2.9% compared to a consensus of 2.4% [5][7][70]. 2. **Business Investment**: Business investment is expected to be the strongest component of GDP, growing over 5% on both a Q4/Q4 and full-year basis, which is double the consensus forecast. This growth is attributed to spending on artificial intelligence, easier financial conditions, and new tax incentives [12][16][70]. 3. **Residential Investment**: Residential investment is projected to remain the weakest component of GDP, with single-family housing starts unlikely to rebound above 1 million due to a construction boom earlier in the cycle and affordability constraints [19][20][29][70]. 4. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The labor market is expected to remain balanced, with wage growth around 3.5%. However, job losses in AI-exposed industries are anticipated to increase, potentially displacing 6-7% of current jobs [31][35][70]. 5. **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation is expected to decline from 3% in December 2025 to 2.1% in December 2026, with significant drops in core goods inflation and shelter inflation [42][51][70]. 6. **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, with the next cut projected for June, bringing the rate to 3-3.25% [56][58][70]. 7. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: The company does not expect major new fiscal stimulus measures ahead of the midterm elections, with a positive fiscal impulse averaging +0.5pp from previously passed tax cuts and spending increases [62][64][70]. Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Policy**: The effective tariff rate is likely to remain stable or decrease slightly due to political considerations ahead of the midterm elections [59][60][70]. - **Household Formation**: A decline in net immigration is expected to reduce new household formation, further impacting the housing market [24][70]. - **Affordability Issues**: High prices and mortgage rates are constraining demand for new single-family housing, despite a national housing shortage [26][29][70]. - **Investment Incentives**: New tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to boost investment primarily in manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors [16][70]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic outlook for 2026 as analyzed by the company.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Projections - The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.2% of GDP for FY27, with the government's borrowing cost expected to be between 6.8-7% [1] - Nominal GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 10.5-11%, influenced by rising international commodity prices affecting wholesale inflation [1] - Capital expenditure is projected to exceed ₹12 lakh crore in FY27, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [1] Tax Revenue and Borrowing Trends - Personal income-tax collections are expected to continue surpassing corporate tax collections in the FY27 Budget [2] - Gross market borrowing over the next five fiscal years is estimated at ₹93.8-95.2 lakh crore, indicating a need for alternative borrowing sources such as small savings [2] Medium-term Fiscal Strategy - The central government has established a medium-term fiscal consolidation roadmap, aiming to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 56.1% in FY26 from 57.1% in FY25 [5] - The government is committed to a declining trajectory for central government debt towards around 50% (± 1%) of GDP by March 2031, barring major external shocks [5] - The report recommends that state governments adopt medium-term, scenario-based debt-to-GSDP paths aligned with realistic growth assumptions and development needs [5]

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released its final reading of third quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the three-month period including July, August and September. That figure topped the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated 3.3% GDP growth in the third quarter. It was also the fastest growth rate in ...

2025年,北京实现地区生产总值(GDP)52073.4亿元,按不变价格计算,比上年增长5.4%。据介绍,去年北京规 模以上工业增加值按可比价格计算增长6.5%。重点行业中,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业,汽车制 造业分别增长20.2%和17.7%。中新 ...

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,564, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI closed at 9,134, down 0.9% for the day and up 2.5% YTD [2] - The MSCI China index closed at 86, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude remained stable at US$64 per barrel, with a YTD increase of 5.4% [3] - Gold prices rose to US$4,671 per ounce, reflecting an 8.1% increase YTD [3] - Copper prices fell to US$12,803 per ton, down 2.3% for the day but up 3.1% YTD [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth moderated to 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, with a full-year growth of 5% for 2025 [6] - Industrial profits in China decreased by 13.1% YoY as of January 27, 2026 [4] - The 1-Year Loan Prime Rate in China remained stable at 3.0% as of January 20, 2026 [4] Sector Insights - The OTA sector is under pressure due to an antitrust probe involving Trip.com, which saw a stock price drop of over 20% [10] - Despite the probe, long-term earnings impact on Trip.com is expected to be limited, with investor confidence potentially returning by August 2026 [10] - The property market in China is showing marginal improvement, but underlying pressures persist, with expectations for stabilization by late 2026 or early 2027 [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing Q4 GDP performance and December economic activity indicators, including industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's real GDP growth moderated to **4.5% year-on-year (yoy)** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, primarily due to a high base effect. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to **1.2% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) seasonally adjusted non-annualized** in Q4 from **1.1% qoq** in Q3 [1][8][17]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth increased to **5.2% yoy** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, driven by stronger-than-expected exports, particularly in the computer & electronics equipment and pharmaceutical sectors [1][9][10]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth declined significantly to **-13.0% yoy** in December from **-10.7% yoy** in November, marking the first full-year contraction since the 1990s at **-3.8% yoy** for 2025. This decline is attributed to statistical corrections and fundamental factors such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [1][11][12]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to **0.9% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, indicating broad-based weakness across sectors. Online and offline sales both decelerated, with restaurant sales growth also declining [1][12][13]. 5. **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index grew by **5.0% yoy** in December, up from **4.2% yoy** in November, suggesting that services consumption is outpacing goods consumption [1][13]. 6. **Property Market Trends**: The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by **-19.3% yoy** and **-18.3% yoy**, respectively, in December. Property sales also remained depressed, with a **-15.5% yoy** decline in volume terms [1][14]. 7. **Labor Market Conditions**: The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at **5.1%** in December, with a slight decrease from **5.2%** in November after seasonal adjustment. The youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group was reported at **16.9%** in November [1][16]. 8. **Future Economic Outlook**: The forecast for full-year real GDP growth in 2026 is maintained at **4.8%**, slightly above the market consensus of **4.5%**. The report suggests that incremental policy easing will be necessary to address subdued domestic demand and structural challenges [1][17][34]. Additional Important Insights - The divergence in economic performance is highlighted, with strong export growth contrasting with weak domestic demand [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of statistical corrections in interpreting recent economic data, particularly regarding FAI [1][11]. - The services sector's growth is noted as a positive sign amid overall economic challenges, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services rather than goods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy.