Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing resilience with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, but signs of slowdown are evident in the third quarter, necessitating measures to boost consumption to stabilize growth [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The fiscal policy has significantly strengthened since September last year, with net financing of government bonds reaching 7.66 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest issuance since 2020 [5]. - Broad fiscal expenditure grew by 9.3% year-on-year from January to July, the highest level since 2022, indicating a strong fiscal push [5]. - Retail sales growth reached 5% in the first half of the year, surpassing last year's annual growth of 3.5%, largely due to fiscal measures [5]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - The shift in policy focus from investment to consumption has led to a notable increase in retail sales, particularly after the implementation of the "trade-in" policy, which saw a 20% to 30% growth in related products [6]. - New consumption trends include a surge in health-related products, the rise of domestic brands, rapid growth in AI product consumption, and increased spending by the elderly, although consumption remains uneven across different city tiers [6][10]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Economic data from July to August indicates a significant slowdown, with retail growth dropping to 3.4% in August, and fixed asset investment continuing to decline [8]. - Exports are facing challenges, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 4.4% in August, and a notable decline in toy and bag exports by approximately 20% [8][9]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with a 10.6% year-on-year drop in sales area in August and a nearly 20% decline in new construction starts [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Expanding the categories eligible for the "trade-in" program is recommended to sustain retail growth, including adding baby products to the list [11]. - Increasing support for service consumption through subsidies and vouchers for sectors like dining, tourism, and health is suggested to enhance overall demand [11]. - Encouraging high-end consumption by relaxing restrictions in areas such as yacht purchases could stimulate significant economic activity [12].

GDP measures what’s made within a country’s borders. GNP measures what a nation’s people and businesses produce worldwide. https://t.co/FwmRIP5KHa https://t.co/RWUTDTVvDc ...