中国经济以2025年上半年5.3%的GDP增长率稳健前行，展现出强劲韧性。然而，三季度经济数据显现明显放缓迹象：社会消费品零售总额增速回落，固 定资产投资增速进一步下降，叠加房地产持续下行，以及产业逆全球化浪潮，明年稳增长压力将进一步加大。在此背景下，提振消费已成为稳增长的关键 一环。 导 语 近期笔者受邀参加深圳香蜜湖宏观经济论坛，与中国证监会原主席肖钢、上海市人民政府原常务副市长屠光绍、中央财经委员会办公室原副主任尹艳林、 中国建设银行原党委书记、董事长王洪章等金融界与学术界重量级人士共聚一堂。本次论坛上，笔者认为，提振消费需从以下几方面入手：一是扩大以旧 换新支持品类；二是加大对服务消费的支持力度；三是鼓励中高端消费；四是完善社会保障体系；五是优化收入分配结构。这些举措旨在释放内需活力， 推动经济向消费驱动型转型。详情请参阅以下发言实录！ 非常荣幸参加本次研讨会。近期我前往了新加坡、美国以及欧洲部分国家，发现欧洲经济增长乏力，中国、美国以及新加坡经济保持增长态势。上半年国 内经济稳步增长，但是三季度部分核心数据有所放缓，明年经济面临一定下行压力。我认为经济学家有使命唱响中国经济光明论，这里我就如何提振消 ...

低利率下的宏观分析框架与债券定价 20250926 摘要 中国房地产投资占 GDP 比重显著下降，从 14%降至 7%，住宅投资降 至 3.3%，低于发达国家水平，表明房地产不再是宏观经济的核心驱动 因素，需调整分析框架，转向消费等其他驱动因素。 房地产投资下降导致储蓄剩余，资金流向制造业投资和政府债券，理解 资金流向是宏观分析的关键，需关注储蓄和消费之间的动态变化，以及 工业和服务业的相对变化。 中国消费率相对较低，提升消费率是一个长期过程，面临收入分配和消 费者倾向较低的挑战，不能简单照搬美国消费驱动型模式，需具体情况 具体分析。 新兴市场高消费率往往与高通胀相关，并非健康的消费驱动型经济，温 和通胀环境更有利于维持稳定健康的消费者行为，中国应避免高通胀或 低通胀。 房地产融资下降，政府债券融资快速增长，实体企业融资保持较高水平， 社融结构变化降低了社融指标对宏观经济的指引作用，未来金融对实体 经济的作用可能更多依赖于利率。 Q&A 传统的宏观分析框架及其对债券定价逻辑的影响是什么？ 传统的宏观分析框架在很大程度上以房地产作为核心。过去，房地产在中国经 济中的占比非常高，对经济波动有着显著影响。例如，房地 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the paradox of high savings and low consumption in China, which is becoming a key bottleneck for economic development [1][3] - China's economic growth over the past two decades has relied heavily on foreign trade and real estate investment, both of which are now facing significant challenges [3][4] - Despite the People's Bank of China's efforts to stimulate consumption through monetary policy, the reality is that liquidity is not translating into consumer spending [4][10] Group 2 - The article contrasts the consumption patterns of the U.S. and China, noting that the U.S. has a highly developed credit system that encourages borrowing and spending [5][6] - In 2024, U.S. personal consumption expenditure reached $20.4 trillion, accounting for 70% of GDP, showcasing a stark difference in consumption behavior compared to China [5][6] - The U.S. government provided direct cash assistance during the pandemic, which helped maintain consumer spending and savings among low-income groups [6][7] Group 3 - China's low consumer willingness is attributed to three structural constraints: weakened expectations, high debt burdens, and mismatched supply [9][10] - As of the end of 2024, China's household leverage ratio reached 63%, indicating that a significant portion of income is allocated to debt repayment, limiting discretionary spending [9][10] - The retail sales growth in 2024 was 4.6%, primarily driven by high-end consumption, while ordinary consumers' demand for upgrades remains unmet [10] Group 4 - To address the consumption dilemma, the article suggests creating a supportive institutional environment that encourages spending [12][15] - Recommendations include improving the social safety net, optimizing income distribution, innovating consumption scenarios, and enhancing the consumer environment [12][13][14] - The transition from a production-oriented society to a consumption-oriented society is a significant challenge for China, requiring deep structural changes [15]