With 2025’s data center CAPEX boom behind us, the AI and energy industries are now facing a multi-trillion dollar logistics threat from the east: China’s manufacturing and refining dominance. Craig Tindale – a macro trader and former manufacturing consultant for IBM and other major firms – discussed the looming threat on the most recent Blockspace Podcast. He highlights how decades of Western outsourcing have allowed China to secure a stranglehold on the global supply chain, cornering as much as 90% of gl ...

7 January 2026 | 12:27AM HKT Equity Research China Pet Foods (002891.SZ): APAC Consumer & Leisure Corp Day: Robust domestic to deliver 40%+ yoy sales in 2025 and 2026; Overseas We met with China Pet Foods in-person in Hong Kong on Jan 6 during our APAC Consumer Corp Day. Key takeaways: 1) 4Q25 updates: domestically, mgmt shared better-than-expected performance for domestics business during double 11, raised 2025 sales growth guidance to 40%+ for domestic business (up from previous 35%+ yoy). Internationally ...

Supply Chain Challenges - The global toy supply chain is complex [1] - Toymakers faced disruptions in 2025 due to Donald Trump [1] Industry Focus - The report examines how toymakers are managing supply chain issues [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Intelligent Machinery and Electronics Products Expo (AIE) is being held in a groundbreaking "dual-city" format in Macau and Zhuhai, featuring over 1,000 companies and covering an exhibition area of 70,000 square meters [1] - The intelligent machinery and electronics industry is a key area for future development, with China being the largest manufacturing and consumer market globally, particularly in Guangdong, which is a hub for consumer electronics and high-end equipment [1][3] - Guangdong produces 40% of the world's smartphones, 70% of consumer drones, one-third of industrial robots, a quarter of new energy vehicles, and one-fifth of integrated circuits, housing major companies like Huawei, BYD, and TCL [1] Industry Context - Historically, major global electronics exhibitions like CES and IFA have set industry trends, but China lacks a similarly influential platform despite being the largest manufacturing base [2] - The success of these exhibitions is rooted in the strong industrial foundation and innovative companies in their host countries, which provide content and vitality to the events [2] - A top-tier exhibition serves as an extension of a country's industrial cluster, creating a positive feedback loop that enhances both the exhibition and the industry [2] AIE's Strategic Positioning - AIE's location in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area positions it as a leader in intelligent machinery and electronics, with local companies integrating into global supply chains [3] - The innovative "dual-city" model of AIE enhances its functionality, with Macau focusing on trade and international exchange, while Zhuhai emphasizes manufacturing and application scenarios [3] - AIE aims to be a technology trendsetter, a global meeting place, and an industry accelerator, facilitating communication within the global supply chain and promoting rapid marketization of technologies [3] Future Prospects - The success of CES and IFA is attributed to a combination of industrial foundation, historical opportunity, clear positioning, and an open ecosystem [4] - China has the necessary conditions to create a world-class exhibition brand, and AIE is poised to become a leading platform for technological trends with global influence [4]

Core Insights - A new equilibrium state in supply chains is emerging, characterized by more regional patterns, which will take time to fully transition in the industrial economy [1][6] - The impact of US tariffs and the end of exemptions for low-value goods has disrupted global parcel trade, with FedEx anticipating a $1 billion loss due to trade volatility, primarily from reduced shipments from China to the US [1][6] - FedEx is adapting to these changes by shifting its capacity and redeploying aircraft to respond to new trade flows from China to Europe, Latin America, and other parts of Asia [1][6] Industry Trends - The long-term changes in global trade and supply chains are driven by technology and geopolitical risks, indicating a persistent shift in market dynamics [6] - Companies are increasingly recognizing that the costs associated with supply chain disruptions outweigh the benefits of maintaining lower inventory levels [5][6] - The ability of logistics companies to adjust capacity quickly is highlighted as a competitive advantage over manufacturing, which cannot adapt as swiftly [2][6]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China says it's ready to work with the US to maintain a stable global supply chain. ...

Geopolitical & Supply Chain Concerns - China's restriction on rare earth mineral exports is viewed as a threat to the global supply chain [1] - China restricted seven rare earth materials initially, and added five more recently [3][4] - These restricted rare earths, critical for commercial and military tech, constitute only about 1% of a rare earth deposit [4] - The move may indicate China's intention to retain these materials long-term, potentially impacting the US [5] - China may be using rare earth restrictions as leverage in trade disputes [6] Market & Economic Impact - China's potential reduction of serium, lanthanum, neodymium, and praodmium prices (the bulk of rare earth deposits) could negatively impact the profitability of new and existing rare earth mines [8] - This could necessitate US government subsidies to maintain operations like the Mountain Pass mine [8][9] - Restrictions will impact electric car production due to the use of dysprosium in neodymium boron magnets [16] - China has historically manipulated rare earth pricing to achieve strategic goals, including attracting foreign investment [16] US Response & Strategic Considerations - The US government may need to subsidize the Mountain Pass mine to secure turbium, dysprosium, scandium, and yttrium, essential for military technologies [10] - The US possesses sufficient heavy rare earth deposits to support military applications, particularly from Mountain Pass and Lionus' Mount Weld mine in Australia [13] - Government involvement and subsidies are likely needed to develop domestic rare earth resources in Wyoming, Alaska (UKORB site), and potentially Greenland [19] - There's a trend towards sovereign control over these materials [19]

Geopolitics & Trade - US Treasury Secretary predicted a coordinated response from the US and its allies to China's move to control the global supply of rare earths [1] Rare Earths Market - China's move to control the global supply of rare earths is a key concern [1]

Macroeconomic Environment & Strategy - The company aims to minimize distractions from macroeconomic noise by focusing on controllable factors like product innovation, storytelling, and marketplace elevation [1][2] - A small team is dedicated to managing external factors such as the $15 million tariff bill [3] Tariff Mitigation - The company is working to offset tariffs through its diversified global supply chain, country of origin adjustments, and collaboration with factory and retail partners [4][5] - The company employs various levers to offset tariffs over time [5][6] - The company considers targeted and selective price increases as part of its regular quarterly pricing strategy at a country level, not solely due to tariffs [6][7] Manufacturing & Sourcing - The company has diversified its manufacturing portfolio and continues to decrease its reliance on China [8] - The biggest hurdle to manufacturing in the US is material sourcing, involving tens of thousands of different materials [9][10] Government Relations - The company engages with the administration and Congress, emphasizing shared interests in sports and upcoming global sporting events like the World Cup and Olympics [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting ongoing trends in shipping and logistics [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Freight Volume Trends**: Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 6% week-over-week (WoW) and 2% year-over-year (YoY) [1][3]. - **Port of Los Angeles**: Expected sequential imports are set to decrease by 26% in the upcoming week, with a further anticipated decline of 9% two weeks later [3][35]. - **Rail Intermodal Volumes**: Experienced an 8% YoY decline, indicating a shift from previously positive growth trends [3][44]. - **Ocean Container Rates**: Rates fell by 15% sequentially and are down 73% YoY, reflecting significant pressure on shipping costs [3][32]. Potential Risks and Opportunities - **Peak Season Uncertainty**: There is concern that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which could lead to underwhelming volume and revenue during the peak season [5][6]. - **Restocking Potential**: If consumer demand remains resilient, there could be a significant restocking event in 2026, which would positively impact freight flows and margins [5][6]. - **Transport Stocks**: The report suggests that transport stocks may face volatility in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase, but truckers have been upgraded due to a lowered recession forecast [6][5]. Additional Insights - **High Frequency Data**: The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing high-frequency data over multiple weeks to understand tariff-related trends, as weekly data can be volatile [2][4]. - **Logistics Manager Index**: The index indicates that upstream inventories expanded while downstream inventories reverted to expansion after three months of contraction [67][68]. - **Congestion Levels**: The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker indicates fluidity levels are close to pre-COVID baselines, suggesting improved logistics efficiency [51]. Conclusion - The current trends in freight volumes, shipping rates, and inventory levels indicate a complex landscape influenced by tariffs and consumer behavior. The potential for a restocking event in 2026 could provide a significant opportunity for growth in freight flows if consumer spending remains strong.