5 January 2026 | 6:05AM GMT Economics Research EUROPEAN ECONOMICS ANALYST Euro Area Outlook 2026: Cyclical Boost, Structural Drag, Unchanged Rates Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 | filippo.taddei@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 | alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch Katya Vashkinskaya +44(20)7774-4833 | katya.vashkinskaya@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovann ...

Gold Price Prediction"On the technical front, after a staggering rally of 2025, we don't expect similar returns in 2026. But the current moment may push up prices towards USD 5,000-5,200 and Rs 1,50,000-1,55,000 on the MCX in 2026," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research, He added that underlying factors for the rally such as monetary policy easing, de-dollarisation, and global trade tensions will continue to dominate in 2026.In the international markets, gold prices climbed by USD 1 ...

As global trade tensions ease, Asia’s policy reforms and domestic economic fundamentals will play a bigger role in investment decisions next year, money managers and analysts said https://t.co/JATB0Cjdz2 ...

Asian markets have been one of the main drivers of the performance of emerging markets this year. Despite concerns over global trade tensions, many of these economies have been very resilient, leading emerging Asian markets toAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it ...

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The EU raised tariffs on steel imports, aiming to protect its market from global overcapacity, primarily stemming from China [1][2] - The EU emphasizes that the steel import restrictions are a horizontal measure, not specifically targeting any single country, but impacting all importers [2] - The US shares similar concerns with the EU regarding global steel overcapacity and protecting local markets, leading to engagement between the two [3] - EU-US trade relations are the largest in the world, with both being each other's largest trading partner, indicating significant economic stakes [4] Economic Growth & Uncertainty - Global trade uncertainty and tensions negatively affect growth, as the EU's economic model relies on open international trade [6] - The EU is committed to defending a functioning multilateral rules-based trading system and diversifying trade engagement through new trade agreements [6][7] - The EU has concluded trade agreements with Merkasur, Mexico, Switzerland, and Indonesia, and is negotiating with India, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates [7] Investment Opportunities in Europe - The EU offers investors a single market of 450 million consumers and 26 million companies, characterized by predictability, rule of law, and strong institutions [9] - There is elevated investor interest in Euro-dominated assets due to the stability and predictability they offer in turbulent times [9] - Strengthening the competitiveness of the European economy and enhancing productivity growth is a priority for the current political cycle [9]

Group 1: TSMC's Position and Strategy - Demand for advanced chip manufacturing is rising sharply, and TSMC is well positioned to benefit from these trends due to its status as the world's largest third-party chip foundry [1] - TSMC is investing almost $165 billion in the U.S. to expand its advanced manufacturing capacity, including six advanced wafer fabs and two advanced packaging facilities in Arizona [7] - TSMC's geographic expansion aims to maintain its role as a neutral and trusted foundry partner, with overseas fabs expected to impact gross margins by 2% to 3% annually in early stages [8] Group 2: Advanced Technology Development - TSMC is focused on introducing advanced process nodes, including the 2-nanometer (N2) node, which is on track for volume production in the second half of 2025 [9] - The A16 chip, which offers significant improvements in power efficiency, is expected to begin volume production in the second half of 2026 [9] - Higher-margin advanced process nodes (7-nanometer and below) already contribute nearly 74% of wafer revenue, supporting TSMC's long-term gross margin target of 53% or higher [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Growth Potential - Global trade tensions are reshaping supply chains, prompting countries to invest in regional manufacturing capacity, which presents new growth opportunities for the technology sector [4] - The demand for AI-grade computing power has escalated dramatically, with significant investments from the European Union and the U.S. government to promote AI initiatives and advanced chip manufacturing [3] - TSMC trades at about 26.2 times forward earnings, indicating significant room for share price growth given the explosive demand for its cutting-edge chips [10] Group 4: Snowflake's Market Position - Snowflake is well positioned to benefit from increasing data localization laws, as its AI Data Cloud is designed to be secure and compliance-driven [12] - The company's product revenue grew by 32% year over year to $1.09 billion in its fiscal 2026 second quarter, highlighting strong revenue visibility [14] - Snowflake's AI capabilities have driven almost half of all new customer wins in Q2, with a net revenue retention of 125%, indicating strong customer spending growth [15]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all heavy trucks manufactured outside the U.S., effective October 1, 2025, aimed at protecting domestic industry [2][9] - Companies like PACCAR Inc. and Daimler Truck Holding could be directly impacted by these protectionist measures [2] - The new tariffs may exacerbate existing trade frictions between the U.S. and China, despite the Chinese Premier's recent call for stable U.S. ties [3][9] Group 2 - Australian miner Lynas Rare Earths Ltd is on track to record its strongest quarter of market gains in nearly a decade, benefiting from escalating US-China trade tensions [4][9] - The financial markets are experiencing significant shifts, with bank reserves at the Federal Reserve falling below $3 trillion, indicating a notable liquidity drain [5][9] Group 3 - Economic growth in EBRD countries is edging higher, but the looming threat of tariffs presents a significant headwind for these emerging economies [6][9]

Group 1 - Global agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere & Co. anticipates a potential decline in sales in Brazil by a single-digit percentage in 2026 due to global uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs and high interest rates in Brazil [1][2] - The vice president of sales and marketing for Deere's Brazil unit indicated that a decline of 5% to 6% is possible, despite a more positive outlook for 2025 [2] - The company reported a global sales figure of $55 billion but does not disclose sales by country or region [3] Group 2 - High financial costs in Brazil, with interest rates reaching up to 18%, are creating challenges for clients in the agribusiness sector [3] - Political tensions, including the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and strained relations between U.S. President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva, are contributing to uncertainties in the market [3][4] - The agribusiness industry is characterized by high and long-term investments, and uncertainties are causing discomfort for clients, leading to concerns about worsening conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 27.6% in the past month, primarily due to rising gold prices amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1][6] Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 14.3% and the S&P 500's rise of 2.5% in the same period [2] - Competitors such as Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 10.2%, 17%, and 12.7%, respectively [2] Technical Analysis - Barrick's stock has surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [3][4] Growth Projects - Key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, are on track to enhance production [9] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Fourmile project is expected to yield double the grades of Goldrush [10] - The Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually by the end of 2028 [10] Financial Position - Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion, up 15% year over year [12] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [12] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged 39% this year, driven by trade tensions, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and increased central bank purchases [14] - Current gold prices have exceeded $3,600 per ton for the first time, contributing to strong profit margins for Barrick [14] Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 2.1% with a payout ratio of 25%, indicating sustainability [15] - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.84X, which is a 15.6% discount to the industry average [20] Production Outlook - Barrick expects attributable gold production of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [18] - Higher production costs, with cash costs per ounce increasing by 17% and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising by 12% year over year, may impact margins [16][17] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with a projected year-over-year rise of 56.4% for 2025 and 21.8% for 2026 [19] Investment Case - Barrick presents a strong investment case with a solid pipeline of growth projects, healthy financials, and rising gold prices, although high costs and a downbeat production outlook warrant caution [23]

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy in 2025 is characterized by significant uncertainty, influenced by government stimulus efforts and challenges such as property market difficulties and global trade tensions [1]