Group 1 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all heavy trucks manufactured outside the U.S., effective October 1, 2025, aimed at protecting domestic industry [2][9] - Companies like PACCAR Inc. and Daimler Truck Holding could be directly impacted by these protectionist measures [2] - The new tariffs may exacerbate existing trade frictions between the U.S. and China, despite the Chinese Premier's recent call for stable U.S. ties [3][9] Group 2 - Australian miner Lynas Rare Earths Ltd is on track to record its strongest quarter of market gains in nearly a decade, benefiting from escalating US-China trade tensions [4][9] - The financial markets are experiencing significant shifts, with bank reserves at the Federal Reserve falling below $3 trillion, indicating a notable liquidity drain [5][9] Group 3 - Economic growth in EBRD countries is edging higher, but the looming threat of tariffs presents a significant headwind for these emerging economies [6][9]

Group 1 - Global agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere & Co. anticipates a potential decline in sales in Brazil by a single-digit percentage in 2026 due to global uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs and high interest rates in Brazil [1][2] - The vice president of sales and marketing for Deere's Brazil unit indicated that a decline of 5% to 6% is possible, despite a more positive outlook for 2025 [2] - The company reported a global sales figure of $55 billion but does not disclose sales by country or region [3] Group 2 - High financial costs in Brazil, with interest rates reaching up to 18%, are creating challenges for clients in the agribusiness sector [3] - Political tensions, including the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and strained relations between U.S. President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva, are contributing to uncertainties in the market [3][4] - The agribusiness industry is characterized by high and long-term investments, and uncertainties are causing discomfort for clients, leading to concerns about worsening conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 27.6% in the past month, primarily due to rising gold prices amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1][6] Performance Comparison - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 14.3% and the S&P 500's rise of 2.5% in the same period [2] - Competitors such as Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 10.2%, 17%, and 12.7%, respectively [2] Technical Analysis - Barrick's stock has surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [3][4] Growth Projects - Key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, are on track to enhance production [9] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Fourmile project is expected to yield double the grades of Goldrush [10] - The Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually by the end of 2028 [10] Financial Position - Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion, up 15% year over year [12] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [12] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged 39% this year, driven by trade tensions, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and increased central bank purchases [14] - Current gold prices have exceeded $3,600 per ton for the first time, contributing to strong profit margins for Barrick [14] Dividend and Valuation - Barrick offers a dividend yield of 2.1% with a payout ratio of 25%, indicating sustainability [15] - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.84X, which is a 15.6% discount to the industry average [20] Production Outlook - Barrick expects attributable gold production of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [18] - Higher production costs, with cash costs per ounce increasing by 17% and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising by 12% year over year, may impact margins [16][17] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with a projected year-over-year rise of 56.4% for 2025 and 21.8% for 2026 [19] Investment Case - Barrick presents a strong investment case with a solid pipeline of growth projects, healthy financials, and rising gold prices, although high costs and a downbeat production outlook warrant caution [23]

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy in 2025 is characterized by significant uncertainty, influenced by government stimulus efforts and challenges such as property market difficulties and global trade tensions [1]

The IMF has warned that the UK must overcome “significant challenges” to its growth and investment agenda in the face of rising global trade tensions and fiscal constraints https://t.co/7InXj3wVO1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited are leading gold producers with diversified portfolios, positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices and geopolitical tensions, making them relevant for investors in the precious metals sector [1][25]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 29% this year, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, driven by aggressive trade policies and central bank accumulation of gold reserves [2]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Reko Diq project, which are expected to significantly enhance production [4][5]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production annually by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [5]. - Barrick's Lumwana copper mine expansion is a $2 billion project expected to double throughput and produce 240,000 tons of copper annually [6]. - As of Q1 2025, Barrick reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.1 billion and generated operating cash flows of around $1.2 billion, a 59% increase year-over-year [7]. - Barrick's dividend yield is 1.9% with a payout ratio of 28% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 5.1% [8]. - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year-over-year, respectively [10]. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects such as the Odyssey project and the Hope Bay project, which is expected to generate significant cash flow [11][12]. - Following its merger with Kirkland Lake Gold, Agnico Eagle has established itself as a high-quality senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of projects [13]. - In Q1 2025, Agnico Eagle's operating cash flow increased by roughly 33% year-over-year to $1,044 million, with free cash flows of $594 million, up around 50% [14][15]. - Agnico Eagle has a lower long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of about 5% compared to Barrick's 12.3%, indicating lower financial risk [15]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.3% with a payout ratio of 32% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3% [15]. - Agnico Eagle's total cash costs per ounce of gold were $903, with projections for 2025 indicating an increase in costs [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has increased by 36.3%, while Agnico Eagle's stock has risen by 56.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4% [17]. - Barrick is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.73, representing a 23.8% discount to the industry average of 14.08X [20]. - Agnico Eagle trades at a premium with a forward earnings multiple of 20.27, above the industry average [21]. Growth Prospects - The consensus estimates for Barrick's 2025 sales and EPS imply year-over-year growth of 13.7% and 43.7%, respectively [22]. - Agnico Eagle's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 23.6% and 43%, respectively [23]. - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment, but Agnico Eagle's higher dividend growth rate and lower leverage may present better investment prospects [25].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Westlake Partners reported a net income of $5 million or $0.14 per unit for Q1 2025, which is $10 million lower than Q1 2024 due to lower production and sales volume from the planned turnaround at Petro one [6][8] - Consolidated net income, including OpCo's earnings, was $42 million on consolidated net sales of $238 million [8] - Distributable cash flow for the quarter was $5 million or $0.13 per unit, a decrease of $12 million compared to Q1 2024 [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The planned turnaround at the Petro one ethylene unit in Lake Charles, Louisiana, resulted in lower production and sales volume, impacting overall earnings [6][8] - The partnership maintained a strong leverage ratio of approximately one times, with long-term debt at $400 million [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that global trade tensions have intensified, creating uncertainty for businesses and investors, which may lead to market volatility [11] - The ethylene sales agreement provides a predictable fee-based cash flow structure, supporting financial performance despite market conditions [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to evaluate growth opportunities through increasing ownership interest in OpCo, acquisitions of other income streams, and organic growth through facility expansions [12] - The focus remains on maintaining a strong balance sheet and conservative financial metrics while providing long-term value and distributions to unitholders [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the stability of cash flows due to the fixed margin ethylene sales agreement, which mitigates market volatility [6][11] - The successful completion of the Petro one turnaround positions the company for solid production levels in the future [12] Other Important Information - The partnership has made 43 consecutive quarterly distributions since its IPO in July 2014, with a cumulative distribution coverage ratio of approximately 1.1 times [10][12] - The first quarter distribution of $0.04 per unit will be paid on May 29, 2025 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: The financial impact of the Q1 turnaround at TETRA one seems significant. Can you explain? - Management indicated that the impact was as planned, with the unit down for February and March, and elevated interest rates may have also affected performance [17][18] Question: Is there still enough valuation difference to justify keeping Westlake healthy around? - Management noted that while the parent company has seen some valuation compression, the value proposition remains strong over the business cycle [19][20]