免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：1月29日，经络按揭转介首席副总裁曹德明在最新展望中指出，香港银行同业拆息 （HIBOR）上半年将大致徘徊于2厘至3厘区间，与按息挂钩的H按业主短期内仍需以封顶息率3.25厘供 楼。 曹德明表示，尽管美联储维持基准利率于3.5厘至3.75厘区间，汇丰银行亦宣布最优惠利率保持5厘不 变，但香港银行体系总结余仍约538亿港元，HIBOR回落空间受限。他补充，除非大量资金流入令 HIBOR跌穿1.95厘，否则实际按息及月供难再下降。近期部分银行已积极争取上半年按揭业务，上调回 赠及优惠吸引优质客户，预计2026年按揭市场随楼市平稳向上。 来源：观点地产网 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index opening high but eventually closing down by 93 points or 0.37% at 25,176 points, influenced by A-share movements [2][3] - The market experienced a trading volume exceeding 300 billion, indicating active trading despite the fluctuations [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong government is enhancing its position as an international risk management center, with the recent authorization of two new captive insurance companies reflecting strong demand [6] - The government has introduced various incentives, including a 50% profit tax concession for captive insurance businesses, making Hong Kong more competitive compared to other Asian markets [6] - The banking sector is experiencing a downward trend in interest rates, with expectations of a decrease in capped mortgage rates by the end of the year due to anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts [7] - The mortgage rate index reported a monthly increase of 39 basis points, reflecting the rising HIBOR rates, which have implications for mortgage applicants [8] Group 3: Company News - Xtep International reported a 21.47% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, amounting to 914 million RMB, driven by strong performance in its main brand and professional sports division [10] - The company plans to upgrade its retail strategy by launching a direct-to-consumer model and expanding its product offerings, indicating a proactive approach to market changes [11] - 361 Degrees has entered a strategic partnership with Stand Robot to leverage each other's strengths in the field of wearable robotics and high-performance materials, aiming to enhance innovation and technological capabilities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has been rising, with the one-month HIBOR reaching 2% on August 18, marking a new high since May 8, indicating a shift in the banking system's liquidity and interest rate dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Banking System and HIBOR Trends - The banking system's surplus has decreased from a high of 1,740 million HKD in May to approximately 537 million HKD, nearing levels before the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in early May [1] - The continuous rise in HIBOR over four consecutive working days suggests a tightening liquidity environment, with the actual mortgage rate now at 3.3%, still below the market cap of 3.5% [1][2] - The significant widening of the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to increased arbitrage activities, prompting the HKMA to intervene multiple times [1] Group 2: Future Expectations and Implications - The rise in HIBOR is expected to narrow the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S., reducing the incentive for arbitrage and stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar [2] - Despite the current HIBOR being over 2% lower than U.S. rates, expectations of a potential U.S. rate cut later this year could further influence HIBOR downward, with predictions of a decrease in the best lending rate (P) and capped mortgage rates by 0.25% to 0.5% [2] - Factors such as demand for Hong Kong dollars, arbitrage activities, and seasonal influences will continue to affect HIBOR fluctuations, necessitating borrowers to choose capped mortgage plans to mitigate risks associated with rising rates [2]

Group 1 - The 1-month HIBOR has dropped to 0.56%, marking a decline for five consecutive working days and reaching the lowest level since June 15, 2022 [1] - The actual interest rate for H mortgages has fallen to 1.86%, the lowest in nearly three years, providing immediate relief for homeowners [1] - With a loan amount of 5 million HKD over 30 years, the monthly payment at the current H mortgage interest rate of 1.86% is 18,133 HKD, a reduction of 4,319 HKD or 19.2% compared to the capped interest rate of 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of H mortgage selections has increased to 91.8%, up 1.4% month-on-month, indicating a growing preference for H mortgages as HIBOR declines [2] - The expectation is that H mortgages will dominate the market, with the selection ratio potentially rising to 95% or above due to the recent cessation of fixed-rate plans by major banks [2]