Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performances of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that A-shares have outperformed since July, while Hong Kong stocks have lagged behind due to fundamental issues, liquidity constraints, and low valuation premiums [2][6][26]. Market Performance Overview - The market performance in 2023 can be divided into three phases: 1. January to March: Hong Kong stocks outperformed, driven by AI and technology sectors 2. April to June: U.S. stocks led the market, with Chinese stocks recovering but not reaching previous highs 3. July to present: A-shares surged due to liquidity-driven tech trends, while Hong Kong and U.S. stocks remained volatile at high levels [2][6]. Reasons for Hong Kong's Underperformance - Hong Kong stocks have underperformed due to three main factors: 1. **Fundamentals**: Earnings growth expectations for Hong Kong stocks have been downgraded, contrasting with improvements in A-shares 2. **Liquidity**: The rise in Hibor rates indicates tightening liquidity in Hong Kong 3. **Valuation**: The AH premium has decreased, reducing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks [6][18][24]. Earnings Growth Analysis - Hong Kong's net profit growth for the first half of 2023 was 4.2%, while A-shares saw a lower growth of 2.8%. However, A-shares are expected to improve in 2024, while Hong Kong's earnings growth is projected to decline [7][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) growth forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 has been downgraded to -2.7%, indicating potential negative growth in the second half of the year [11][12]. Liquidity Conditions - Since mid-August, liquidity in Hong Kong has tightened significantly, with Hibor rates spiking to 4.6% before stabilizing around 2.5%. This contrasts with the active liquidity environment in A-shares, where trading volumes have increased significantly [18][23]. Valuation Insights - The AH premium has fallen below 125%, reducing the appeal of Hong Kong stocks for mainland investors due to tax implications. This has contributed to the recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks [24][26]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on A-shares if they believe in the continuation of liquidity-driven trends, while those concerned about sustainability may find more stable opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors with favorable structural dynamics [29][38]. - Key sectors to watch in Hong Kong include pharmaceuticals, technology hardware, non-bank financials, and consumer electronics, which are expected to show higher earnings growth and stability [38][40]. Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The article concludes that while A-shares are currently leading, there is potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from structural improvements, especially if the liquidity environment changes. However, the overall market dynamics suggest that structural opportunities will remain more significant than index performance [26][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market atmosphere created by the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, leading to a collective rise in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) experienced a slight decline of 0.56% as of 10:35 AM, despite having gained over 4% last week and nearly 30% year-to-date [1] - Notable stock performances include a rise of over 7% for companies like Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, while companies such as Kelun-Biotech and Zai Lab saw increases of over 6% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by selling US dollars and buying Hong Kong dollars, involving an amount of HKD 20.018 billion to stabilize the currency [1] - The total bank system surplus has decreased to HKD 144.1 billion, following a cumulative purchase of approximately HKD 30 billion by the HKMA from June 26 to July 2 [1] - The Hibor rate has dropped from 4.5% to 0.4%, indicating a significant change in the liquidity environment [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs indicated a strong interest from investors in the Hong Kong market and Hong Kong dollar assets, with a relatively abundant liquidity environment [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active without causing liquidity issues, and there is an increasing demand for the Hong Kong dollar from overseas investors [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) account for 69.41% of the index, including major companies like Xiaomi, Tencent, and BYD [1]