证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 牛市一周年的红利展望 ——多行业联合红利资产 9 月报 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 策略研究 策略周报 2025 年 10 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：刘欣 邮箱：liuxin3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521010001 证券分析师：马野 邮箱 ...

来源：智通财经 智通财经9月30日讯（编辑 胡家荣）近期AH溢价指数逼近10年低位，南下资金成交占比已达40%，港 股配置正成为机构投资者的重要战略选择。对此华泰证券在其研报中讨论在公司同质情况下，如何判断 弹性。 现象：AH溢价的近期表现与市场困惑 AH溢价指数从今年5月的134一度下降至117，处于2018年以来的最低水平。这一现象引发了市场广泛关 注：为何同一家公司在不同市场的股价会出现如此显著的差异？ 这种溢价差异不仅突破了最近5年的下限，正在逼近10年下限，且下行速度超过了市场预期。投资者最 关心的是：AH溢价为何持续走低？往后走势如何判断？这对投资决策有何指引？ 从历史数据来看，AH溢价并不具备短期快速均值回归的特性。2015年至2019年AH溢价均值为127，而 2021年至2024年则跃升为143，表明其中枢水平本身就不稳定，且指标往往偏离中枢程度大、时间长。 本质：AH溢价存在的根本原因 虽然AH两地股份同属一家上市公司，只具有一个理论上的内在价值，但两地不同投资者对企业价值的 不同估值会以交易行为反应为价格差异。 根本原因在于两地股票无充分套利机制。A股投资者并不能将其股票换成H股去香港交 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The report highlights a favorable configuration opportunity in the securities sector, driven by multiple factors including policy support for capital market development, increased market participation from institutions and residents, and a recovery in brokerage business lines [2][4]. - The current valuation and positioning of the brokerage sector are at mid-low levels since 2014, suggesting a high cost-performance investment opportunity [2][4]. Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address resource security and demand issues, promoting stable operation and transformation of the industry [2][3]. - Short-term investment opportunities are expected in the recycling metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term benefits are anticipated for domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resource mining companies [2][3]. - Companies with extensive experience in copper, aluminum, and magnesium alloy processing are likely to benefit from the upgrading of materials in automotive and electronics sectors, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2][3]. Group 3: Banking Sector - The report indicates an improvement in the cost-performance ratio for quality banks, with some banks' dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in core business profitability and asset quality, driven by policy focus on stabilizing interest margins and preventing tail risks [4]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks and those with stable dividends, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with a projected output of 135.8 GWh in October, reflecting a 7.9% month-on-month increase [5]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the domestic market and the electrification of commercial vehicles [5]. Group 5: Petrochemical Industry - The "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and regulate major project construction, which is expected to optimize supply in various sub-sectors [9]. - The report recommends companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to anticipated improvements in industry conditions and the development of high-end chemical materials [9]. Group 6: Company Ratings - Changfei Optical Fiber is rated "Buy" with a target price of 115.52 RMB, driven by its leading position in the optical fiber market and expected growth from AI infrastructure [12][14]. - The report also highlights the dual business strategy of Weigao Medical, projecting a return to normal operations in its consumer goods segment and continued growth in its medical segment [13][14].

消费新势力——恒生消费ETF（513230）； 在政策红利释放、技术创新突破、流动性持续改善的 "三重共振"下，港股板块正展现出日益显著的投 资价值。作为汇聚中国顶尖科技企业的核心阵地，港股市场汇聚了一批在人工智能、生物医药、造车新 势力等前沿领域具备核心竞争力的优质企业。伴随美联储降息周期开启与南向资金持续流入，港股或迎 来业绩提升与价值重估的双重机遇。 【相关ETF】 AI全产业链——港股通科技ETF基金（159101）； AH折溢价水平成为判断外资配置方向的关键指标。2025年以来，超50家A股公司递表港交所推进二次 上市，AH两地上市股的配置价值愈发凸显。剔除行业差异后的数据显示，外资在两地上市股中明显偏 好低溢价标的——持有规模较小个股的平均AH溢价率达95%以上，而持有规模较大个股的溢价率仅4% （A股）和17%（港股）。 历史经验更揭示重要规律，2020年以来，AH溢价率指数涨跌幅与外资流入H股、A股的规模差值相关系 数达0.56，意味着溢价率回升时外资更倾向于流入港股。值得关注的是，AH股溢价指数自去年2月从 157的高位趋势回落，2025年8月已跌至2020年以来新低123，若未来溢价率向均 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise, while the AH premium has reached a phase low, leading to a divergence in opinions regarding the overvaluation of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Some industry insiders believe that the current AH premium is at a reasonable level based on the existing exchange rate and market environment, with potential for further narrowing of the AH premium amid a mid-term trend of RMB appreciation and USD weakening [1] - Hong Kong assets may benefit from abundant global liquidity and the return of foreign capital, especially if the US further cuts interest rates to improve global liquidity and AI companies continue to deliver strong performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in attractiveness for capital, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the catalyzing effect of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry [1] Fund Performance - The launch of Hong Kong-themed funds has been notable, with the Tianhong Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index raising over 2.5 billion yuan, setting a record for new fund launches this year [2] - Hong Kong-themed ETFs have also experienced strong inflows, with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan since September, particularly in ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [2][3] - Notable inflows have been recorded in various indices, including the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, with net inflows of 67.67 billion yuan and 59.09 billion yuan respectively [3] Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has accelerated its allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding 60 billion HKD in a single week, marking a five-month high [4] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Growth Mixed Fund has implemented purchase limits due to its strong performance, with a year-to-date return of 56.21% [4] Market Valuation and AH Premium - The AH premium has reached a low point, leading to discussions about the valuation of Hong Kong stocks. Some analysts believe the current AH premium is reasonable, with potential for further narrowing [1][6] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has recently risen, with significant gains in major tech stocks such as Baidu and Alibaba, indicating a positive market sentiment [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the AI technology and new consumption sectors have substantial growth potential, which could drive the Hong Kong market upward [7] - Continuous inflows from southbound capital and a low domestic interest rate environment may lead to increased allocations to the Hong Kong market [7] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the U.S. could enhance global liquidity, supporting the Hong Kong market's growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in attractiveness for capital, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the catalyzing effect of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry [1] Fundraising and Capital Inflow - The Tianhong Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index fund raised over 2.5 billion yuan, setting a record for new Hong Kong-themed fund launches this year [2] - Hong Kong-themed ETFs have experienced substantial capital inflows, with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan since September, particularly in ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index [3] Performance of Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has accelerated its allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding 60 billion HKD in the week of September 8-12, marking a five-month high [4] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Growth Mixed Fund has implemented purchase limits due to its strong performance, achieving a return rate of 56.21% year-to-date as of September 16 [4] Market Valuation and AH Premium - The AH premium has reached a low point, leading to differing opinions on whether Hong Kong stocks are overvalued; some analysts believe the current premium is reasonable given the market environment [1][5] - The market is expected to benefit from global liquidity and foreign capital inflows, with potential for further narrowing of the AH premium as the Chinese yuan appreciates and the US dollar weakens [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, which could drive the Hong Kong stock market upward [6] - Continuous inflow of southbound capital and a low domestic interest rate environment may lead to increased capital allocation to the Hong Kong market [6]

Group 1 - Meituan's food delivery business maintained its leading position in Q3, but the average order value declined. The instant retail market is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, while the on-site travel and accommodation sector remains stable. New businesses are contracting domestically but expanding overseas [1] - Kuaishou's e-commerce reported a GMV growth of 17.6% year-on-year for Q2 2025, with private domain transaction efficiency being over four times that of public domain. AI tools have improved product card conversion rates by 20%, and the Double Eleven promotion is set to launch on October 7 [1] - There are rumors that Alibaba and other platforms may significantly increase capital expenditures, with Q4 infrastructure potentially catching up and AIDC tenders expected to be densely issued [1] Group 2 - For domestic investors, Hong Kong stocks are relatively inexpensive compared to A-shares. Since May, the AH premium has decreased from 134 to 119, indicating a reasonable valuation given the current exchange rate. There is potential for further narrowing of the AH premium amid the appreciation of the yuan and the weakening of the dollar [1] - For overseas investors, Hong Kong stocks still offer value. Despite the Hang Seng Index rising by 30%, global financial conditions remain loose due to the depreciation of the dollar and falling oil prices, benefiting Hong Kong stocks as offshore RMB assets. The PBROE framework indicates that Hong Kong stocks are at a mid-range level of value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant rise since early April, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 25,000 and 26,000 points, marking a cumulative increase of over 30% and reaching a four-year high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index is no longer the same as in the past, with the weight of new economy companies in the MSCI China Index rising from under 30% to 70% over the past decade [3] - The proportion of financial and real estate sectors in the Hang Seng Index has decreased from 47.6% and 10.1% in 2016 to 32.0% and 3.8% respectively, while the new economy sectors have increased from around 20% to 58.6% [3] - The overall turnover rate of the Hong Kong stock market remains at 60%-70%, lower than that of A-shares and US stocks, but the liquidity discount faced by valuations may have significantly decreased [3] Group 2: Investor Structure - The influx of over a trillion yuan in southbound funds has altered the investor structure in the Hong Kong market, with southbound funds now accounting for nearly 40% of trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks [3] - The increase in funds benefiting from low financing costs in China is expected to elevate the valuation levels in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - The AH premium has decreased from 134 to 119 since May, currently at its lowest level in five years, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are not overvalued compared to A-shares [4] - The potential for the AH premium to narrow further exists, influenced by the trends of RMB appreciation and USD depreciation [4] - Hong Kong stocks remain attractive to overseas investors, benefiting from global liquidity and foreign capital inflow, with their valuation positioned in the mid-range compared to other global assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performances of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that A-shares have outperformed since July, while Hong Kong stocks have lagged behind due to fundamental issues, liquidity constraints, and low valuation premiums [2][6][26]. Market Performance Overview - The market performance in 2023 can be divided into three phases: 1. January to March: Hong Kong stocks outperformed, driven by AI and technology sectors 2. April to June: U.S. stocks led the market, with Chinese stocks recovering but not reaching previous highs 3. July to present: A-shares surged due to liquidity-driven tech trends, while Hong Kong and U.S. stocks remained volatile at high levels [2][6]. Reasons for Hong Kong's Underperformance - Hong Kong stocks have underperformed due to three main factors: 1. **Fundamentals**: Earnings growth expectations for Hong Kong stocks have been downgraded, contrasting with improvements in A-shares 2. **Liquidity**: The rise in Hibor rates indicates tightening liquidity in Hong Kong 3. **Valuation**: The AH premium has decreased, reducing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks [6][18][24]. Earnings Growth Analysis - Hong Kong's net profit growth for the first half of 2023 was 4.2%, while A-shares saw a lower growth of 2.8%. However, A-shares are expected to improve in 2024, while Hong Kong's earnings growth is projected to decline [7][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) growth forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 has been downgraded to -2.7%, indicating potential negative growth in the second half of the year [11][12]. Liquidity Conditions - Since mid-August, liquidity in Hong Kong has tightened significantly, with Hibor rates spiking to 4.6% before stabilizing around 2.5%. This contrasts with the active liquidity environment in A-shares, where trading volumes have increased significantly [18][23]. Valuation Insights - The AH premium has fallen below 125%, reducing the appeal of Hong Kong stocks for mainland investors due to tax implications. This has contributed to the recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks [24][26]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on A-shares if they believe in the continuation of liquidity-driven trends, while those concerned about sustainability may find more stable opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors with favorable structural dynamics [29][38]. - Key sectors to watch in Hong Kong include pharmaceuticals, technology hardware, non-bank financials, and consumer electronics, which are expected to show higher earnings growth and stability [38][40]. Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The article concludes that while A-shares are currently leading, there is potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from structural improvements, especially if the liquidity environment changes. However, the overall market dynamics suggest that structural opportunities will remain more significant than index performance [26][38].