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基石药业-B(02616):下一代IO疗法潜力明显,关注ESMO三抗数据读出
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-17 13:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.55 per share, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on the potential of next-generation immuno-oncology therapies, particularly the CS2009 (PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4) which is expected to show promising efficacy and safety data at the upcoming ESMO conference [2]. - The sales of Pralsetinib have significantly declined due to price adjustments and one-time channel compensations in preparation for national medical insurance negotiations, but successful inclusion in the insurance directory is anticipated to accelerate sales growth post-2026 [1]. - The clinical pipeline is expanding with multiple candidates, including CS5001 (ROR1 ADC), which is progressing steadily through clinical trials and is expected to broaden its indications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 49.4 million, with a significant decline in Pralsetinib sales due to price adjustments [1]. - The revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 123 million, RMB 829 million, and RMB 1.125 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -68.25%, 575.37%, and 35.81% respectively [5]. Clinical Development - CS2009 is undergoing a global multi-center I/II clinical trial, with safety and efficacy data expected to be presented at the ESMO conference in October 2025 [2]. - CS5001 is actively recruiting patients for various treatment combinations, showing no dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) thus far, and is expected to expand into Phase II studies [3]. Pipeline Expansion - The company has over nine potential candidates in its preclinical pipeline, focusing on multi-specific antibodies and ADCs, which cover oncology, autoimmune, and inflammatory diseases [4].