随着特朗普的关税政策让企业陷入冻结式观望模式，历经2023和2024年两次虚惊的美国经济，这次可 能真的要面对考验。 6月7日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发表文章称， 尽管美国经济在2023 年和2024年成功避开了多次衰退警报，但目前正步入另一个令人不安的夏季。 虽然5月份美国新增13.9 万就业岗位，失业率在过去一年中一直保持在4%至4.2%的稳定区间，但经济表面之下已出现裂痕。 最令人担忧的是，企业纷纷警告，不断变化的贸易政策正干扰其未来规划能力，导致招聘和投资冻结。 这种政策不确定性发生在就业增长放缓、房地产市场降温的背景下。与去年相比，美联储也因担忧新的 通胀风险而更加不愿降息。 文章指出，劳动力市场脆弱平衡、消费者支出变化和金融市场冲击——这个三大因素可能会以令人猝不 及防的方式出现断裂。 正如洛杉矶Beacon Economics创始合伙人Christopher Thornberg所说："这一切的走向完全取决于特朗 普接下来会做什么，坦白说，就连特朗普自己也不知道他下一步会做什么。所以几乎不可能预测局势的 发展方向。" 华尔街见闻此前提及，安联首席经济顾问 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Analyst UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK real rates, measured by inflation-indexed Gilt yields, are at or near decadal highs following a significant increase through 2021-2023. The UK was one of the earliest adopters of inflation-indexed bonds, and so already has a long timeseries of ex ante (traded) real rates, dating back to the early 1980s. We use this time series to backcast real yields, drawing on an approach by ...

The stock market is taking a hit today. Most sectors are in the red. The S&P 500 (^GSPC -3.58%) shed more than 4% by late morning.But shares of luxury home furnishings company RH (RH -39.90%) are getting crushed. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings last night, but that's not the only thing driving the sell-off.RH stock was down an astounding 44.1% as of 10:43 a.m. ET. Here's why.First housing, now tariffsRH reported decent fourth-quarter results, with revenue increasing 10% and continued strong dem ...