One thing we know is coming next is the first Fed decision of the year 2 p. m. Eastern today.The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady and the decision comes as Chair Powell continues to face scrutiny from the White House. Michael McKee Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent joins us now, who's in Washington for the decision. Mike, what are you going to be looking out for in a meeting where we're likely to get no change.Yeah, well, we might get a news void at the Federal Reserve, ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is experiencing a different economic dynamic, which has implications for global currency and fixed-income markets [1] Group 1 - The Fed's potential interest rate cuts could influence global financial markets, particularly in currency and fixed-income sectors [1] - The contrasting monetary policy approaches between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia highlight differing economic conditions and challenges faced by each central bank [1]

"The Fed has got to get the rate down to 3% — I think that is closer to equilibrium,†BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income said. ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets opened positively on November 21, 2025, attempting to recover from a volatile week influenced by concerns over AI valuations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Major indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), saw modest gains at the opening bell, but are expected to end the week sharply lower [2] Market Indexes - The DJIA advanced 0.4% at the opening, recovering from a nearly 400-point decline [2] - The S&P 500 rose 0.4% after a 1.6% drop in the previous session, while the Nasdaq opened higher by 0.3% following a 2.2% decline [2] - Despite today's gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their largest weekly losses since April, attributed to doubts surrounding AI spending and high valuations of tech firms [2] Economic Indicators - Investors are monitoring signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate adjustments, with New York Fed President John Williams indicating support for a rate cut "in the near term" [4] - A mixed U.S. jobs report showed healthy growth but a slight rise in unemployment to 4.4% in September, complicating the Fed's decision-making for its December meeting [4] - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence, among others [5] Corporate News - Walmart (WMT) shares rose 6.5% after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its fiscal 2026 outlook, with a modest 0.4% increase at the open [6] - Nvidia (NVDA) reported strong third-quarter results but saw its shares fall 3.2% due to concerns over AI stock valuations, with a further 0.3% decline at Friday's open [7] - BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) shares rose 4.5% in premarket trading after exceeding third-quarter net income expectations, though it slipped 2% at the opening [8] - Other companies like Gap (GAP), Intuit (INTU), and Ross Stores (ROST) opened higher following positive earnings reports, while Atkore Inc. (ATKR) plummeted 12.9% after missing earnings estimates [12] Digital Asset Market - Bitcoin continued its downturn, trading around $83,500, down from nearly $125,000 last month, contributing to the overall risk-off sentiment in the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President John Williams anticipates that the central bank can lower its key interest rate due to labor market weaknesses being a greater economic threat than inflation [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Williams supports the view that current monetary policy is modestly restrictive, suggesting there is room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate to align it closer to neutral [3][6]. - Financial markets reacted positively to Williams' comments, with stock market futures rising and Treasury yields decreasing [4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Following Williams' remarks, traders adjusted their expectations, now seeing over a 64% probability of a quarter percentage point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 9-10 [4]. - This marks a significant shift from previous expectations, which indicated a lower likelihood of a rate cut [4]. Group 3: Economic Assessment - Williams noted an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have diminished [7]. - He emphasized that underlying inflation is trending downward, with no evidence of second-round effects from tariffs impacting inflation [7].

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened lower on September 22, 2025, following a record-high closing last week, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve commentary [1][2] - The S&P 500 dipped approximately 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 169 to 228 points (0.37% to 0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite eased back by 0.1% to 0.2% [2] Economic Indicators - The market's overall trajectory has been upward since hitting a bottom in April, driven by expectations of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - Investors are particularly focused on upcoming inflation data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show a slight increase [5] Corporate Developments - Pfizer (PFE) announced its intent to acquire Metsera (MTSR) for $4.9 billion, leading to a 60% surge in Metsera's shares and a 1.5% increase in Pfizer's stock [6] - FedEx Corp. (FDX) shares advanced 2.3% after reporting strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings [6] - Lennar Corp. (LEN) saw a 4.2% decline in shares after its third-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings fell short of estimates [6] - Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares surged 4.3% following the sale of its stake in Orla Mining [6] - Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF) shares jumped 27.2% amid acquisition talks with Aquarian Holdings [6] Technology Sector News - Oracle (ORCL) gained 4% following reports of discussions with Meta for a potential $20 billion cloud computing deal [10] - Oklo (OKLO) shares climbed 28% due to a substantial UK-US nuclear energy partnership valued at $350 billion [10] - Apple (AAPL) shares rose 3.2% after a J.P. Morgan upgrade and the global launch of its newest iPhone model [10] - Tesla (TSLA) added 2.2% following a positive upgrade from Baird [10]

Core Insights - Merger activity is rebounding as US companies gain confidence from clearer policy signals, with a recession appearing unlikely in the US economy [1][3] - Clients have become significantly more active in capital markets, driven by greater clarity on taxes, tariffs, and deregulation [2] - Citigroup's CEO forecasts a decade of strong growth in the Middle East, fueled by investment flows and the creation of new industries [7][8] Market Activity - Companies globally have announced over $1 trillion in deals since June, defying the typical summer slowdown [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts approximately $3.1 trillion in deal flow for this year and a record $3.9 trillion for 2026, indicating strong momentum in the market [3] - Citigroup has benefited from increased client activity due to market volatility following tariff announcements [4] Economic Outlook - While Citigroup maintains a positive outlook on the US economy, it is closely monitoring the labor market, acknowledging that not all indicators are favorable [3] - Some industry peers express caution regarding the impact of global tariffs on the US economy and inflation, complicating forecasts for Federal Reserve policy [5] - Expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve are prevalent, but there is uncertainty about the pace of future policy adjustments [6] Regional Focus - The Middle East is viewed as an attractive region for investment, with Gulf states diversifying away from oil and drawing in global financial firms [7][8] - Citigroup anticipates significant growth in the Middle East, supported by expanding business ties with India and China [8]

Core Insights - The median house price in Sydney is expected to exceed AUD 1.8 million in the next financial year, while Melbourne's median is projected to reach AUD 1.112 million [1][2] - The report indicates a severe housing supply shortage in Australia, yet the real estate market shows no signs of slowing down [1] - All capital cities, except Canberra, are anticipated to achieve record house price growth in FY26, with Sydney's growth rate surpassing local average wage increases [1][2] Group 1: Sydney Market - Sydney's median house price is forecasted to increase by 7%, rising from AUD 1,717,107 to AUD 1,829,576, representing a gain of AUD 112,469 within a year [1][2] - The city is particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, which may drive the median house price to surpass AUD 1.8 million by mid-2026 [2][3] - The current clearance rate in Sydney is around 70%, indicating potential price increases due to heightened buyer competition fueled by lower interest rates [5] Group 2: Melbourne Market - Melbourne's housing market is expected to rebound from nearly two years of stagnation, with a projected price increase of 6%, raising the median from AUD 1,046,246 to AUD 1,112,623 [7][10] - The market is entering a stable recovery phase, with expectations of full recovery by the end of the financial year [8] - Increased buyer inquiries and confidence, driven by interest rate cuts and generational wealth transfers, are likely to expand the buyer pool and enhance borrowing capacity, further propelling price growth [10]