Company Overview - Robinhood's fourth quarter revenue missed expectations, leading to an almost 8% decline in after-hours trading [1] - The stock was already down about 40% from its all-time high in October, raising concerns about its performance during the current crypto downturn [4] Financial Performance - Key metrics showed deceleration, particularly in net deposit growth, which continued to decline into January [2] - Despite the topline miss, management's commentary on future business growth and transaction volumes was constructive, indicating a decent outlook [3] Crypto Market Impact - Crypto revenue has decreased from over 20% to an expected near 10% of total business, with a potential 50% haircut to current trading volumes during a crypto winter [6] - This scenario would only result in a manageable 10% hit to Robinhood's EBITDA [6] Business Diversification - Robinhood is better positioned during the current crypto downturn due to its diversified product lineup, including a significant increase in net interest income and new offerings like retirement accounts and banking products [9][10] - The company is evolving into a more comprehensive financial app, which enhances its resilience compared to previous downturns [8] Options Trading Growth - Options trading, which constitutes about 25% of Robinhood's revenue, is expected to see significant growth, potentially up to 40% due to increased penetration and new product offerings [12][14] - The options market is less cyclical, allowing for trading in both up and down markets, which supports long-term growth for Robinhood [13] Prediction Markets - Robinhood's entry into prediction markets is seen as a potential growth area, leveraging its strong distribution capabilities despite increasing competition [15] - The company has announced a partnership that enhances its control over economics and product innovation in this space [16]

Summary of Marcus & Millichap Update / Briefing (January 22, 2026) Company Overview - **Company**: Marcus & Millichap (NYSE: MMI) - **Established**: 1971 by George Marcus and Bill Millichap - **Focus**: Real estate investment brokerage and information delivery to the investment community [3][4] Economic Outlook for 2026 - **GDP Growth**: Expected to be between 2.5% and 3%, an improvement from 2025's growth of 2% to 2.5% [7][8] - **Unemployment Rate**: Currently at 4.4%, projected to rise to between 4.5% and 5% by next year [8] - **Key Growth Drivers**: - **Artificial Intelligence (AI)**: Significant investment in data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the U.S. leading globally [10][11] - **Fiscal Stimulus**: Tax cuts and increased government spending expected to boost GDP by approximately $100 billion, contributing 2%-3% to GDP [13] - **Headwinds**: - **Deglobalization**: Ongoing tariffs and restrictive immigration policies impacting job growth [9][14] - **Labor Market**: Job growth has stagnated, with healthcare being the only sector adding jobs [15][16] Risks to Economic Growth - **K-shaped Economy**: Increasing income inequality affecting consumer spending, with the top 20% of earners driving a significant portion of economic activity [18][19] - **Equity Market Valuations**: High valuations in the stock market pose a risk if AI adoption does not lead to expected productivity gains [20][21] - **Bond Market Fragility**: Concerns about potential dislocation in the bond market, which could impact financial and real estate markets [22][23] Commercial Real Estate Insights - **Market Trends**: - **Apartments**: Stable vacancy rates below 5%, but a significant drop in multifamily starts (72% from peak) and units under construction [36][39] - **Office Market**: Gradual recovery with improved daily attendance, but significant variance in vacancy rates between older urban and newer suburban properties [48][50] - **Industrial Market**: High vacancy rates due to a surge in construction, but demand remains steady for smaller, private investor-owned facilities [51][58] - **Housing Affordability**: Only 28% of Americans can qualify for a typical first home purchase, leading to increased demand for rental housing [39][46] Federal Policy and Housing Market - **Proposed Limitations**: Recent federal proposals to limit acquisition of single-family homes driven by political pressures related to affordability concerns [42][43] - **Supply Focus**: Emphasis on increasing housing supply as a solution to affordability issues, with ongoing advocacy for policies that support this goal [44][46] Conclusion - **Overall Outlook**: 2026 is expected to be a better year for operations and rent growth due to supply pullback and strong demand, although challenges remain in the labor market and economic risks persist [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of diversification in investment strategies is emphasized, particularly as the market approaches 2026, with a focus on trends in AI capital expenditures and data centers as safer investment alternatives to tech stocks [1][2]. Investment Trends - AI capital expenditures are expected to continue growing next year, indicating a reliable trend, but investors are advised to seek alternative investment avenues to avoid overexposure to tech stocks [2]. - Data centers are highlighted as a viable investment option, allowing exposure to sectors like industrials and utilities, which have lower price-to-earnings ratios compared to tech stocks [3]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector, including insurers and banks, is viewed positively, especially with the yield curve steepening, suggesting a favorable environment for financial investments [4][5]. Precious Metals Outlook - The trend in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to persist, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks rather than chasing prices [6][7]. Consumer Market Analysis - The consumer market is described as bifurcated, with wealthier households continuing to spend while lower-income households struggle, leading to a divergence in consumer spending patterns [8][9]. - Tax refunds are anticipated to provide a temporary boost to consumer spending, but are not expected to significantly stimulate growth [10]. S&P 500 Projections - The S&P 500 is projected to range between 7,400 and 7,600 by year-end next year, driven primarily by earnings, with a target of $300 earnings per share [12].

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season was notably shorter this year, with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, yet consumer resilience was evident as spending continued despite the time constraints [2][3] - Value retailers, such as Walmart and dollar stores, performed well due to consumers having limited budgets and opting to spend in fewer places [3][6] - Electronics emerged as the top-selling category, with significant demand for gaming consoles, new phones, and laptops, contributing to a mini boom for retailers and tech companies [4] Retail Performance - Discount retailers saw substantial gains, with dollar stores and Walmart reporting increased sales, reflecting consumer behavior focused on budget-friendly options [6][14] - The K-shaped economy is highlighted, where affluent consumers continue to spend confidently while budget-minded individuals face economic challenges [7][12] - Luxury retailers experienced a mixed performance, with ultra-high-end products performing well, while mid-level luxury brands struggled due to inflation and decreased aspirational spending [8][9][11] Future Outlook - The retail economy is expected to remain strong in 2026, with consumers likely to continue spending, albeit with a focus on essentials and budget items [13][14] - There may be a "holiday hangover" as consumers reassess their financial situations post-holiday season, leading to potential shifts in spending behavior [13][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows low unemployment and healthy consumer balance sheets, but poor sentiment could impact future spending [15]

Group 1: Market Outlook and AI Impact - J.P. Morgan has identified five barometers to assess irrational exuberance in the market, focusing on capacity, credit availability, risk obscuring, speculation, and valuation gaps [1][3][4] - The AI sector is projected to see a significant increase in capital investment, with Big Tech's annual capex expected to rise from $150 billion in 2023 to over $500 billion by 2026, influencing nearly 40% of the S&P 500's market cap [1] - The overall market sentiment heading into 2026 is bullish, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq showing healthy returns despite potential risks [2][13] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Labor Market - The U.S. economy is experiencing a precarious balance, with recession probabilities elevated due to vulnerabilities in the labor market [5][7] - Job creation has been weak, but the unemployment rate remains steady as the labor force shrinks, indicating a fragile equilibrium [6][7] - Analysts express concerns that any increase in layoffs could disrupt this balance, potentially leading to rising unemployment [6][7] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Core inflation is expected to remain above target, with projections of 2.8% by the end of 2026, influenced by tariff pressures and other factors [9][10] - The U.S. consumer market shows resilience, but a K-shaped economy is emerging, where lower-income households are struggling financially while wealthier consumers continue to thrive [11][12] - Despite challenges, the overall economic outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of volatility and sentiment swings [13]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current economic landscape is characterized by a bifurcated or K-shaped economy, with unemployment rates around 4.6%, indicating a shift from a balanced labor market to potential risks in employment [2][4][5] - There is an expectation of a possible rate cut due to the labor market risks, which could positively impact market conditions in the upcoming year [5] Group 2: GE Vernova - GE Vernova has seen a significant increase of nearly 9% in the last week, driven by its role as a critical power supplier for AI data centers [6][7] - The company is benefiting from a shift towards on-site power generation due to grid delays, and its backlog is high quality and on track for growth through 2027 [8] - The stock has risen approximately 150% from its lows in April, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting continued upward movement [10][12][13] Group 3: NASDAQ - NASDAQ is expanding its trading hours to include a 23-hour weekday trading session, which is expected to increase retail participation globally [15][16] - Approximately 60% of NASDAQ's revenue is derived from assets under management (AUM) based index funds, with a trend of investors moving towards passive equity funds, which is favorable for NASDAQ's earnings [16][17] - The stock is currently consolidating and showing potential for a breakout, with key resistance levels identified [18][20][22] Group 4: Seagate Technology - Seagate has been included in the NASDAQ 100, which is a significant development for the company, as it is a core supplier of data storage hardware for data centers and AI infrastructure [23][24] - A cash-secured put strategy is being employed to potentially acquire shares at a discount, with a strike price of around $290 and a premium of approximately $20.90 per share [25][26][28] - The stock has been in a bullish trend, but there are concerns about potential overvaluation and bearish divergences in technical indicators, suggesting a possible pullback in the near term [29][34]

Core Insights - Apparel sales in the U.S. have shown resilience, rising every month except February, with increases of 6% or more in some months through October compared to the previous year [2] - Major apparel retailers like Gap Inc., Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, and American Eagle Outfitters reported Q3 results that exceeded analyst expectations [2][6] - Certain brands, such as Gap, Old Navy, and Anthropologie, experienced double-digit growth in popularity and social media attention, while others like The North Face and Nike saw declines of 20% or more [3] Sales Performance - Black Friday sales were strong, with high-single-digit growth in online sales and modest increases in store traffic, despite concerns over consumer spending due to rising living costs [5] - Analysts noted that U.S. consumers are still willing to spend during key shopping periods, which has positively impacted apparel sales [6][7] Pricing Strategies - Retailers are maintaining price levels despite expectations for holiday promotions, with apparel prices higher than the previous year, including increases of 2% for handbags and 8% for women's apparel [7][8] - Brands like Levi's and Ralph Lauren have either maintained the same promotions or reduced discounts compared to last year, indicating confidence in their business strategies [9] Consumer Behavior - The current consumer behavior reflects a post-pandemic trend where individuals are refreshing their wardrobes, moving away from a focus solely on activewear and athleisure [8] - The cautious approach of businesses in protecting their margins is supported by robust sales, suggesting a strong consumer tolerance for higher prices [8]

Joining me now, Brian Jacobson, chief economist, Annex Wealth Management. Brian, great to have you back. Thanks for joining us.>> Yeah, thank you for having me. >> Brian, you say there's quite a bit to like about the outlook for 2026. Kick things off and tell us what you like.>> Sure. Well, I think maybe part of it is that it's not 2025. that uh was a little bit of a low bar there in terms of the policy uncertainty that we knew that we were going to be facing in terms of, you know, tariffs, taxes, all sorts ...

Economic Data Overview - The NAHB housing market index for December came in at 39, a slight increase from November's 38, indicating a steady uptick from five-year lows, although still far from multi-year highs [2][3] - The upcoming week is significant with the release of jobs data, retail sales, and CPI, which will influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making and market pricing [4][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - There is a focus on the divergence between soft data and hard data, with soft data being more critical in the current economic landscape [7][8] - The market is experiencing a rotation, particularly moving away from high-flying tech stocks, with attention on the performance of the MAG 7 and the broader S&P 500 [15][16] Earnings Season Insights - Key companies reporting include home builders, Nike, and FedEx, with Nike's performance being particularly noteworthy as apparel retailers have shown strong results this earnings season [10][11] - The dispersion index indicates a decrease in market volatility, suggesting a more synchronized market as earnings season concludes [13] Treasury Yields and Metals - Elevated Treasury yields are a significant focus, with recent movements reflecting market interpretations of Federal Reserve communications [18][21] - There has been notable activity in the metals market, which is being closely monitored alongside Treasury yield trends [18]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting signals a cautious approach due to a weakening labor market, shifting focus from inflation to job growth [1][3][4] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with job losses reported and initial jobless claims increasing [2][6][8] - Continuing claims have been rising for several quarters, indicating difficulties for individuals re-entering the workforce [7][8] - The impact of AI on productivity gains is being considered as a factor in workforce reductions [8] Consumer Health - The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, where higher-income households are faring better than lower-income ones [10][12] - Retail sales during the Black Friday week were strong year-over-year, supported by rising home prices and the wealth effect [10] - Lower interest rates are allowing homeowners to access home equity, potentially unlocking trillions in consumer spending power [11][12] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 and other indices are reaching new highs, with expectations for a positive market environment heading into 2026 [13][15] - A rotation in investment focus is anticipated as cost of capital decreases, allowing for broader participation beyond the top-performing stocks [15][16] - Volatility is expected in the first half of 2026 due to uncertainties surrounding the midterm elections, but a strong economic and earnings growth outlook remains [18][19] Sector Preferences - Value stocks and international stocks are favored for 2026, particularly due to low energy prices and favorable fundamentals compared to U.S. large-cap stocks [20][21][22]