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中远海能(600026):高基数拖累油运业绩,运力扩张带动LNG业务成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-07 14:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 43.3% year-on-year. The increase in foreign trade oil transportation capacity boosted foreign trade revenue, but declining freight rates and rising charter costs impacted profitability. Domestic oil transportation revenue fell due to a decrease in domestic refined oil transportation volume, although the gross margin remained resilient. The LNG transportation business benefited from stable project-based income and contributions from new ship deliveries, with gross profit maintaining rapid growth. Market sentiment towards oil transportation is currently pessimistic due to the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of U.S. tariffs. If OPEC+ increases production further and oil prices continue to decline, oil transportation demand may recover. Additionally, LNG vessels will be delivered between 2025 and 2028, solidifying performance stability [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company transported 47.91 million tons of oil products (excluding time charter), a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and the transportation turnover (excluding time charter) was 174.7 billion ton-nautical miles, up 16.2% year-on-year [5]. Foreign Trade Oil Transportation - The company increased its fleet size, operating 54 VLCCs and 8 Aframax tankers in Q1 2025, leading to foreign trade oil transportation revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year. However, due to increased charter costs and high base effects, the gross profit for foreign trade oil transportation was 540 million yuan, down 55.9%, with a gross margin of 15.0%, a decrease of 16.9 percentage points [10]. Domestic Oil Transportation and LNG Business - Domestic oil transportation revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 9.1% decline in refined oil transportation volume. The gross profit was 330 million yuan, down 9.3%, with a gross margin of 24.0% [10]. - The LNG segment benefited from stable project-based income and new ship deliveries, achieving revenue of 620 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, and gross profit of 300 million yuan, up 19.2%, with a gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points [10]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a potential recovery in oil transportation demand if OPEC+ increases production and oil prices decline, which could lead to improved profitability. The company has 36 LNG vessels on order, set to be delivered from 2025 to 2028, which will further solidify performance stability. The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.3 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.3, and 7.8 times [10].