1月8日晚间，招商局能源运输股份有限公司发布2025年度业绩预增公告。 根据公告，招商轮船预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币60亿元至66亿元，与上年同期相比预 计增加8.93亿元至14.93亿元，增幅17%-29%。2025 年四季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润与上年同期相比，预 计增加9.62亿元至15.62亿元，增幅55%-90%。 预计招商轮船2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为50.05亿元至56.05亿元，与上年同 期相比，预计增加-1000万元至5.9亿元，同比增加-0.2%-12%。2025年四季度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润与上年同期相比，预计增加3.77亿元至9.77亿元，增幅22%-57%。 回顾2024年，招商轮船利润总额59.52亿元，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润51.07亿元，归属于上市公司股东的 扣除非经常性损益的净利润50.15亿元，每股收益为0.63元。 招商轮船表示，2025年度业绩预计出现增长的主要原因包括：油船船队抓住市场复苏机遇，第四季度经营利润同比 预计增加200-230%；受益于多种因素，报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 43.3% year-on-year. The increase in foreign trade oil transportation capacity boosted foreign trade revenue, but declining freight rates and rising charter costs impacted profitability. Domestic oil transportation revenue fell due to a decrease in domestic refined oil transportation volume, although the gross margin remained resilient. The LNG transportation business benefited from stable project-based income and contributions from new ship deliveries, with gross profit maintaining rapid growth. Market sentiment towards oil transportation is currently pessimistic due to the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of U.S. tariffs. If OPEC+ increases production further and oil prices continue to decline, oil transportation demand may recover. Additionally, LNG vessels will be delivered between 2025 and 2028, solidifying performance stability [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company transported 47.91 million tons of oil products (excluding time charter), a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and the transportation turnover (excluding time charter) was 174.7 billion ton-nautical miles, up 16.2% year-on-year [5]. Foreign Trade Oil Transportation - The company increased its fleet size, operating 54 VLCCs and 8 Aframax tankers in Q1 2025, leading to foreign trade oil transportation revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year. However, due to increased charter costs and high base effects, the gross profit for foreign trade oil transportation was 540 million yuan, down 55.9%, with a gross margin of 15.0%, a decrease of 16.9 percentage points [10]. Domestic Oil Transportation and LNG Business - Domestic oil transportation revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 9.1% decline in refined oil transportation volume. The gross profit was 330 million yuan, down 9.3%, with a gross margin of 24.0% [10]. - The LNG segment benefited from stable project-based income and new ship deliveries, achieving revenue of 620 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, and gross profit of 300 million yuan, up 19.2%, with a gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points [10]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a potential recovery in oil transportation demand if OPEC+ increases production and oil prices decline, which could lead to improved profitability. The company has 36 LNG vessels on order, set to be delivered from 2025 to 2028, which will further solidify performance stability. The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.3 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.3, and 7.8 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., specializes in energy transportation with a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, ranking first globally. Its main business segments include domestic oil transportation, LNG transportation, and foreign oil transportation, each characterized by licensing, project-based, and cyclical features. The domestic and LNG businesses provide stability, while the foreign oil transportation segment offers significant profit elasticity. The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran are expected to boost oil transportation demand, creating a closed-loop cycle of market demand [2][5][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Geopolitical Restructuring of Oil Transportation - The past two years have seen high average oil transportation rates, but seasonal demand has been weak. Factors include insufficient actual demand and the impact of "shadow fleets" on oil transportation needs. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing sanctions on Iran are anticipated to reshape the crude oil trade landscape, leading to a closed-loop cycle in oil transportation demand [5][16]. COSCO Shipping Energy: A Leader in Energy Logistics - COSCO Shipping Energy is a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group, focusing on the transportation of oil and LNG. By January 2025, the company will have a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, holding a 3.1% share of the global market. The company operates in three main business areas: foreign oil transportation, domestic oil transportation, and LNG transportation, balancing stability and elasticity in profitability [5][24][36]. Domestic Oil Transportation - The domestic oil transportation segment is strictly regulated by the Ministry of Transport, resulting in a balanced supply-demand dynamic and minimal price fluctuations. The company holds over 55% market share in domestic crude oil transportation, with a high COA cargo source ratio of over 95%, ensuring stable revenue. In the first three quarters of 2024, the segment recorded a gross profit of 1.13 billion, with a gross margin of 26% [6][42]. LNG Transportation - LNG transportation is characterized by long-term contracts, providing stable rental income. The company recorded a gross profit of 810 million in the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross margin of 50%. The LNG business is expected to continue growing due to fleet expansion [6][44]. Foreign Oil Transportation - The foreign oil transportation segment is cyclical, with demand driven by the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran. The report highlights that if the conflict ends, oil trade may revert to pre-conflict patterns, benefiting VLCCs. The presence of "shadow fleets" has created a separate market for Russian oil exports, impacting the compliance market. The report anticipates that the supply side will see a reduction in older vessels, alleviating supply concerns [7][54]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to solidify its performance base through LNG and domestic oil transportation, while foreign oil transportation offers significant profit elasticity. The fleet expansion will further enhance performance stability, with projected profit growth of 55% over the next four years. The report estimates the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 3.96 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.53 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.6x, 9.5x, and 8.3x [8][35].