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中远海能(600026):高基数拖累油运业绩,运力扩张带动LNG业务成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-07 14:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 43.3% year-on-year. The increase in foreign trade oil transportation capacity boosted foreign trade revenue, but declining freight rates and rising charter costs impacted profitability. Domestic oil transportation revenue fell due to a decrease in domestic refined oil transportation volume, although the gross margin remained resilient. The LNG transportation business benefited from stable project-based income and contributions from new ship deliveries, with gross profit maintaining rapid growth. Market sentiment towards oil transportation is currently pessimistic due to the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of U.S. tariffs. If OPEC+ increases production further and oil prices continue to decline, oil transportation demand may recover. Additionally, LNG vessels will be delivered between 2025 and 2028, solidifying performance stability [2][5][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company transported 47.91 million tons of oil products (excluding time charter), a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and the transportation turnover (excluding time charter) was 174.7 billion ton-nautical miles, up 16.2% year-on-year [5]. Foreign Trade Oil Transportation - The company increased its fleet size, operating 54 VLCCs and 8 Aframax tankers in Q1 2025, leading to foreign trade oil transportation revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year. However, due to increased charter costs and high base effects, the gross profit for foreign trade oil transportation was 540 million yuan, down 55.9%, with a gross margin of 15.0%, a decrease of 16.9 percentage points [10]. Domestic Oil Transportation and LNG Business - Domestic oil transportation revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 9.1% decline in refined oil transportation volume. The gross profit was 330 million yuan, down 9.3%, with a gross margin of 24.0% [10]. - The LNG segment benefited from stable project-based income and new ship deliveries, achieving revenue of 620 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, and gross profit of 300 million yuan, up 19.2%, with a gross margin of 49.4%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points [10]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a potential recovery in oil transportation demand if OPEC+ increases production and oil prices decline, which could lead to improved profitability. The company has 36 LNG vessels on order, set to be delivered from 2025 to 2028, which will further solidify performance stability. The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.3 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2, 8.3, and 7.8 times [10].
中远海能(600026):地缘重构破局油运,油轮巨头筑基扬帆
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-16 14:45
公司研究丨深度报告丨中远海能(600026.SH) [Table_Title] 地缘重构破局油运,油轮巨头筑基扬帆 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 %% %% research.95579.com 2 中远海能(600026.SH) cjzqdt11111 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中远海能专门从事能源运输,自有油轮运力规模 2,050 万 DWT,运力规模居全球首位。公司目 前主要有内贸油运、LNG 运输和外贸油运三大业务,分别具有牌照化、项目制和周期性的特征。 内贸与 LNG 业务为盾,随着未来 4 年公司船队规模扩张,利润(含投资收益)增长约 55%, 夯实基本盘。外贸业务为矛,具有显著利润弹性。俄乌冲突缓解、对伊制裁趋严,将助推油运 景气周期形成闭环,提振合规市场油运需求,同时拆船加速消除供给焦虑。投资角度,二手船 价较高且新老船价差收窄体现了产业的乐观情绪,基于二手船价的重置成本提供估值支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC:S0490512020001 SFC:BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声 ...