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现货涨跌互现,外盘保持坚挺
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - On February 10, the regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4530 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4480 yuan/ton, East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 642 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 632 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4909 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4833 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB; in South China, they were 632 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 622 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4833 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4756 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The domestic liquefied gas spot prices showed a mixed trend. In East China, the civilian end of liquefied gas remained stable while the ether - after product prices decreased. The upstream focused on sales volume, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was acceptable. Overseas supply tightened marginally, but the PG futures market was relatively weak. High raw material costs suppressed downstream profits, and the price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civilian gas also put pressure on the PG market. There were also disturbances from warehouse receipts and delivery games [1] - Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies and potential upward risks for the market. If the situation eases, the LPG market is still expected to be oversupplied [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China on February 10 [1] - CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East and South China in the first half of March 2026 and their RMB equivalent [1] - The mixed trend of domestic liquefied gas spot prices, the situation of the civilian end and ether - after product in East China, upstream and downstream conditions, overseas supply, and the influence factors on the PG market [1] - The need to focus on the Iranian situation and its potential impact on the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, focus on the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Other strategies (inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [2] Figures - Figures showing the spot prices of civilian liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - to - month differences, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]
液化石油气日报:市场驱动有限,地缘风险仍存-20260210
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 05:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market driving force is limited, and geopolitical risks still exist. Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the Saudi CP has increased in February, the PG futures market is relatively weak, and domestic spot prices generally declined yesterday. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, leading to negative demand feedback. The price inversion between etherified C4 and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG futures market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market, especially for the PG2603 contract, where the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market. However, if the situation eases or remains controllable, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave subsides, and there is still resistance above the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4510; Northeast market, 3740 - 4150; North China market, 4230 - 4470; East China market, 4150 - 4570; Yangtze River market, 4640 - 4930; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400; South China market, 4780 - 4800 [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 637 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 US dollars/ton and 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4875 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton, and butane was 4807 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, up 8 US dollars/ton and 9 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4799 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, and butane was 4730 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]