2025 年 9 月 14 日 行业研究 社融遇拐点，货币见活化 ——2025 年 8 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— 2025 年 7 月份金融数据点评 信用活动季节性走强——2025 年 6 月份金融数据 点评 信用扩张走向量价平衡——2025 年 5 月份金融数 据点评 如何看待 4 月社融与信贷"大劈叉"？——2025 年 4 月份金融数据点评 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 年末贷款增长拖累因素增多——2024 年 11 月份金 融数据点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 9 月 12 日，央行公布了 8 月金融统计数据，数据显示： （3）新增人民币贷款 5900 亿，同比少增 3100 亿， ...

#数据 中国8月金融数据：M2货币供应年率8.8%，预期8.6%，前值8.8%；M1年率6.0%，预期6.0%，前值5.6%；M0年率11.7%，前值11.8%。前8个月社会融资规模增量为26.56万亿元（8月新增社会融资2.57万亿），同比多4.66万亿元；人民币贷款增加12.93万亿元（8月增加6200亿元），同比少4851亿元。 https://t.co/bOkzmUYBP3 ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) via Financial Times suggests that single-month loan data is insufficient to accurately reflect economic activity in the high-quality development stage [1] - The PBOC advises against over-interpreting or sensationalizing fluctuations in single-month credit growth figures when analyzing economic and financial conditions [1] Money Supply Data (July) - M2 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 88%, exceeding the expected 83% and previous value of 83% [2] - M1 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 56%, exceeding the expected 52% and previous value of 46% [2] - M0 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 118%, compared to the previous value of 12% [2]

Monetary Supply - M2 money supply year-on-year rate was 8.8%, exceeding the expected 8.3% and the previous value of 8.3% [1] - M1 year-on-year rate was 5.6%, exceeding the expected 5.2% and the previous value of 4.6% [1] - M0 year-on-year rate was 11.8%, compared to the previous 12% [1] Social Financing - In the first seven months, the increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan (2399 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 5.12 trillion yuan (512 billion yuan) [1] RMB Loans - RMB loans increased by 12.31 trillion yuan (1231 billion yuan) in the first seven months, with a year-on-year decrease of 69.4 billion yuan (69400 million yuan) [1] - RMB loans decreased by 43 billion yuan (43000 million yuan) in July, marking the first negative value in July since 2005 [1]

Monetary Supply - M2 money supply increased by 83% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 81% and the previous value of 79% [1] - M1 money supply increased by 46% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 28% and the previous value of 23% [1] - M0 money supply increased by 12% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 121% [1] Financing and Loans - The increase in social financing scale in the first six months was 2283 trillion yuan (42 trillion yuan newly added in June), an increase of 474 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - RMB loans increased by 1274 trillion yuan (236 trillion yuan newly added in June), an increase of 2796 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

中国4月M2货币供应同比 8%，前值 7%。 ...