证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 物价的三个变化——9 月经济数据前瞻 核心观点：展望 9 月，从物价角度来看，关注的是三个变化。 首先，制造业投资累计增速或将是 2021 年以来首次低于 GDP 累计增速，预计 1-9 月制造业投资累计增速为 4.0%，前三季度 GDP 累计增速为 5.1%左右（三 季度当季预计为 4.8%左右）。这有助于改善中期维度的供需矛盾。其次，物价 的领先指标，金融层面的 M1 或开始回落，这意味着未来 3-4 个季度的物价走 势存在反复的可能。再次，物价的静态表现，9 月 PPI 同比收窄，但环比或再 次转跌，反映了当下终端需求尤其是内需依然偏弱的状态，预计 9 月社零同比 3.2%左右，1-9 月固投累计增速-0.2%，9 月出口同比 6%左右。 以上三个变化对于政策而言，需密切关注短期经济运行，适时在终端需求层面 予以加力。根据 9 月 29 日发改委发布会，"将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做 好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出"。 近期以来，政策已经有所微调的包括一线城市的地产限购政策、政策性金融工 具的加速推进（5000 亿补充资本金）、第四批以旧换新额度下达（10 ...

Group 1 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.12 trillion yuan, with 3,150 stocks experiencing fluctuations, including 2,174 rising and 1,021 falling [2] - The top three industries with net capital inflow were Electronics (31.004 billion yuan), Computers (15.639 billion yuan), and Machinery Equipment (6.928 billion yuan) [2] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, including accelerated transformation, sinking risk-free returns, and surging asset management demand [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF, launched on March 18, 2024, is part of the Huabao Fund's A-series ETFs, which aim to provide investors with diverse options to invest in China [1][2] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming press conference on September 22, focusing on the "high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan," is expected to provide significant information that could impact the market [1] - The market is currently centered around technology, with various sectors such as finance, artificial intelligence, chips, and new energy being highlighted as potential areas of opportunity [1] - The key market level to watch is 3888, which is seen as a critical resistance point that, if surpassed, could lead to new market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The sentiment suggests that investors should be patient and avoid chasing high prices, as there will be more opportunities in the market [1] - The upcoming events, including the Hongmeng Zhixing autumn product launch and the Global Digital Trade Expo, are anticipated to influence market trends and investment directions [1]

Market Overview - On September 16, the three major stock indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3861.87 points, up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13063.97 points, up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index at 3087.04 points, up 0.68% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3600 stocks rising and more than 1600 stocks falling [2] Sector Performance - The internet e-commerce sector led the gains, with a rise of 4.33%, contributing a net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan, while the breeding industry and small metals sectors showed weakness [5][6] - Notable performers in the internet e-commerce sector included Li Ren Li Zhuang, which hit the daily limit, and other companies like Qingmu Technology and Kuaijingtong, which rose over 7% [6] - The humanoid robot sector also performed actively, with companies like Hengshuai Co., Anpeilong, and Hongchang Technology reaching daily limits of 20% [7] Individual Stock Highlights - North Rare Earth saw a decline of 4% with a trading volume of 12 billion yuan, while Cambrian's stock price fluctuated, closing at 1440 yuan with a trading volume of 20 billion yuan [8] - Several stocks, including Weike Technology and Jinghua New Materials, reached new highs [8] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the computer, machinery equipment, and electronics sectors, while net outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, and basic chemicals [9] - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Huasheng Tiancai, Zhongke Shuguang, and Gongxiao Daji, with inflows of 1.856 billion yuan, 1.325 billion yuan, and 1.124 billion yuan respectively [9] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan noted that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, emphasizing the acceleration of China's transformation and the demand for asset management [10] - Open Source Securities highlighted the importance of focusing on leading companies that align with the theme of "emotional consumption" amid a consumer recovery [11] - Guorong Securities pointed out the index fluctuations and the need to pay attention to structural risks [12]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the distinction between "money" and "finance," as presented by Professor Edward Hadas in his book "Money, Finance, Reality, and Morality" [4][5] - Hadas emphasizes that money is a useful but ethically neutral tool that facilitates the exchange of labor and goods, while finance can sometimes lead to greed and has a more complex relationship with the economy [4][5] - The book highlights the importance of morality in financial practices, arguing that greed distorts judgment and that society has a tendency to accept greedy behaviors [5] Group 2 - Hadas discusses the characteristics of money, stating that it helps solve economic problems and manages the distribution of resources, but treating monetary values as true worth is inhumane [4] - He points out that many financial instruments, such as consumer loans and mortgages, often lack genuine economic utility, yet finance plays a crucial role in funding useful investments [5] - The book's main focus is on the moral implications of financial activities, advocating for a moral framework to counteract greed in financial decision-making [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in September is expected to exhibit structural characteristics, with investors needing to closely monitor policy developments, economic data releases, and changes in trading volume [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investors should flexibly adjust their investment strategies based on market conditions [1] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth sectors (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals), cyclical sectors (resources, manufacturing overseas), and certain defensive sectors (finance, consumer) [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Changes in the expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are a significant variable affecting global asset pricing, particularly impacting resource commodities and global capital flows [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - A "cautiously optimistic" mindset is recommended, with an emphasis on balanced allocation, buying on dips, and avoiding chasing high prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is currently facing significant challenges, including a record corruption case involving 140 million yuan and a hefty infringement penalty totaling 89.1 million yuan, indicating serious internal and external issues for the company [4][5][16]. Group 1: Corruption Case - The former general manager of Kuaishou's e-commerce service center, Feng Dian, was involved in a corruption case that resulted in the embezzlement of 140 million yuan, setting a record for internet companies [6][11]. - Feng Dian exploited loopholes in subsidy policies and leaked confidential internal data to external suppliers, leading to fraudulent applications for subsidies [10][8]. - A total of seven individuals, including Feng Dian, were sentenced to prison terms ranging from three years to fourteen and a half years for their roles in the embezzlement [11]. Group 2: Infringement Penalties - Kuaishou was ordered to pay a total of 89.1 million yuan in damages for unauthorized distribution of content from "De Yun Dou Xiao She" and "Chang Xiang Si" [16]. - The scale of infringement is alarming, with Kuaishou reportedly ignoring numerous cease-and-desist notices, leading to repeated violations by many accounts [17][18]. - This is not Kuaishou's first infringement penalty; previous cases include a 30 million yuan penalty from iQIYI for similar issues [20]. Group 3: User Growth and Market Position - Kuaishou's user growth has stagnated, with average active users at 408 million and monthly active users at 712 million, showing only single-digit growth year-on-year [25]. - In contrast, Douyin's user base is nearly double that of Kuaishou, indicating a significant competitive disadvantage [27]. - The company is attempting to find new growth avenues through AI, e-commerce, and financial services, but these efforts have yet to yield substantial results [28][30]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Kuaishou's AI business generated 1.5 million yuan in Q1 2025, with an expected annual revenue of 4.5 million yuan, but this remains a small fraction of total revenue [30]. - The company's overseas operations reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but cumulative losses from these operations reached 10.36 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [32]. - The potential exit of key influencers like Xinba could further impact Kuaishou's traffic and GMV, emphasizing the need for internal reforms and a robust content mechanism [34].

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Group 1 - Shanghai's leadership, including Secretary Chen Jining and Mayor Gong Zheng, welcomed Macau's Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng, emphasizing the importance of deepening cooperation between Shanghai and Macau [1] - Chen Jining highlighted Shanghai's commitment to enhancing its role as an international economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation center, aligning with national strategies [1] - The meeting aimed to strengthen communication and collaboration in various fields, including economic investment, technological innovation, and cultural education, to better serve national development [1] Group 2 - Ho Iat Seng expressed gratitude for Shanghai's support in Macau's development and emphasized Macau's efforts to diversify its economy and develop the Hengqin Guangdong-Macau Deep Cooperation Zone [2] - The visit was intended to gain insights into Shanghai's experiences in technological innovation and high-tech industry development, promoting strategic alignment and enterprise cooperation [2] - Both parties aim to achieve a "two-way rush" in collaboration, contributing to national development goals [2]

Monetary Policy & Economic Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) via Financial Times suggests that single-month loan data is insufficient to accurately reflect economic activity in the high-quality development stage [1] - The PBOC advises against over-interpreting or sensationalizing fluctuations in single-month credit growth figures when analyzing economic and financial conditions [1] Money Supply Data (July) - M2 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 88%, exceeding the expected 83% and previous value of 83% [2] - M1 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 56%, exceeding the expected 52% and previous value of 46% [2] - M0 money supply year-on-year growth rate is 118%, compared to the previous value of 12% [2]