Group 1 - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.28 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Group 2 - In the first seven months, the total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.31 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3 - By the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [3] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 264.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The balance of government bonds grew by 21.9% year-on-year, reaching 89.99 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - The balance of RMB loans as of the end of July was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan [4] - Loans to enterprises increased by 11.63 trillion yuan during the same period [4] Group 5 - The balance of RMB deposits reached 320.67 trillion yuan by the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [5] - In the first seven months, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan [5] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 310.9 billion yuan during this period [5] Group 6 - In July, the weighted average interbank lending rate was 1.45%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The weighted average repo rate was 1.46%, also down 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Group 7 - The one-year loan market quoted rate was 3.00% as of July 21, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of last year [7] - The five-year loan market quoted rate was 3.50%, also down 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 8 - By the end of July, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 96.76, down 4.64% from the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1494, appreciating by 0.55% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB to Euro exchange rate depreciated by 8.13% compared to the end of last year [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile; Hot-Rolled Coil: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing demand that falls short of expectations and are in a state of weak and volatile trends. The trend strength for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - RB2510 closed at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%), with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots and an open interest of 1,636,544 lots (a decrease of 16,049 lots) [3]. - HC2510 closed at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%), with a trading volume of 551,741 lots and an open interest of 1,291,831 lots (a decrease of 62,005 lots) [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis for RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, and the basis for HC2510 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 243 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar increased by 21 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output, Inventory, and Demand Data (August 14 Steel Union Weekly Data)**: - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.84 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.54 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 14.72 tons [4]. - **Financial Data (July Financial Statistics Report)**: - At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% (compared to 8.3% at the end of June). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan [6]. - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, corporate loans increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institution loans increased by 235.7 billion yuan [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Inventory Data (Late July)**: - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons (5.6%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 2.41 million tons (19.5%) from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 670,000 tons (4.3%) from the same ten-day period last month, a decrease of 1.27 million tons (7.9%) from the same ten-day period last year, and an increase of 290,000 tons (2.0%) from the same ten-day period the year before last [6]. - **Automobile Production and Sales Data (July)**: - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% [6]. - From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Data (Late July)**: - Key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten-day period); 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten-day period); and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 0.5% increase from the previous ten-day period) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive trends in China's financial data as of July, indicating a stable growth in social financing and improvements in credit structure, driven by effective financial policies and increased support for the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of July, the year-on-year growth rates for social financing scale, broad money M2, and RMB loans were 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% respectively, reflecting a stable growth in social financing and an optimized credit structure [1]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to 3.2 percentage points, down 11 percentage points from last September's peak, indicates enhanced liquidity and economic vitality, with M1 growing by 5.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The recent increase in M1 is attributed to a lower base effect from previous negative growth and a trend of fund activation, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and improved efficiency in fund allocation [2]. - The active performance of the capital market and rising equity asset prices have encouraged entities to convert some fixed deposits into demand deposits for more flexible market participation [2]. Group 3: Social Financing and Credit Growth - The growth rate of social financing has outpaced that of RMB loans by 2.1 percentage points, primarily due to ongoing fiscal policy efforts, with government bond net financing significantly contributing to social financing [3]. - The RMB loan balance grew by 6.9% year-on-year as of July, with seasonal factors and regulatory measures impacting credit demand, particularly in the traditional off-peak season for credit issuance [3]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Financing - The diversification of corporate financing channels has made traditional loan metrics less reflective of financial support effectiveness, necessitating a broader analysis using indicators like social financing and M2 [4]. - The ongoing optimization of structural monetary policy tools has effectively enhanced financial support for key sectors, with significant growth in loans for technology, green initiatives, and small and micro enterprises [4][5]. Group 5: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - Recent policies aimed at subsidizing personal consumption and service industry loans are designed to lower financing costs and direct credit towards key areas, thereby stimulating consumption and service sector recovery [5]. - The implementation of interest subsidy policies is expected to improve consumer repayment capacity and enhance the profitability of service industry entities, promoting credit demand and job creation [5].

Group 1 - In July, China's new social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a decrease in RMB loans by 50 billion yuan and an increase in RMB deposits by 500 billion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [1][4] - From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][8] - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [11][12] Group 2 - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.31 trillion yuan from January to July, while foreign currency loans decreased by 725 billion yuan [8][14] - The balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [4][13] - The M2-M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4][12] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China indicated that monthly financial data should not be overly emphasized as they may not accurately reflect the economic activity and financial support for the real economy [6] - The traditional credit demand is decreasing while the demand in new growth areas is increasing, suggesting that financial institutions need to adapt their strategies [7][12] - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending in July was 1.45%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak credit demand and a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with July's new social financing reaching 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 386.4 billion yuan [3]. - The report notes that the growth of M1 and M2 continues to rise, with M1 increasing by 5.6% and M2 by 8.8% year-on-year [3]. - The report emphasizes that government bonds are the main contributors to social financing growth, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.24 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan [3]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of personal consumption loans and business loan interest subsidies will create opportunities for retail credit growth [3]. - The report suggests that the banking sector's fundamentals are accumulating positive factors, indicating a potential turning point in performance [3]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Social Financing - In July, the total social financing stock grew by 9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1 percentage points [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for loans from both households and enterprises remains weak, with a notable decrease in household loans by 4.893 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of 2.14 trillion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the active capital market [3]. - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where household and corporate deposits decreased significantly, while fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and upcoming reform measures from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market for lead is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,937 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,567 lots, an increase of 1,521 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,424 lots, a decrease of 1,799 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was -668.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.37 yuan/ton; the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was -664.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 62,535 tons, an increase of 2,744 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [1]. - Trump said he might appoint the next Fed chair a little earlier, and the candidates were narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - Zinc prices are under pressure [1] - The zinc trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 78,345 lots, down 1,626; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,564 lots, up 58 [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85,986 lots, down 1,502; the open interest of LME Zinc was 194,301 lots, up 1,359 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.76 dollars/ton, down 1.18 [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 16,192 tons, up 424; LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, down 1,075 [1] News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. From January to July, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The two discount interest policies are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial collaboration to boost consumption, aiming to support people's consumption needs and form a policy combination with existing subsidies [2] - The Fed may have the possibility to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to summarize experience and improve processes for the two discount interest policies, which can work with existing consumer subsidies [2] - By the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year - on - year. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan [2] - China included two EU banks in the counter - measure list and prohibited domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them [2] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 68.07 billion yuan, with short - term loans decreasing by 38.3 billion yuan and medium - and long - term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [2] - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, rapeseed meal, coke, soda ash, and caustic soda [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows different sector changes, with precious metals up 26.41%, non - ferrous metals up 21.22%, coal - coking - steel - ore up 15.30%, etc [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various performance indicators. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.48%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, and an annual increase of 9.90%; WTI crude oil had a daily decrease of 0.71%, a monthly decrease of 9.39%, and an annual decrease of 12.79% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - Charts display the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's data indicates that as of the end of July, social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans grew by 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively, continuing to outpace economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Growth Analysis - In July, credit growth slowed due to multiple factors including seasonal effects, local government debt swaps, and financial institutions reducing excessive competition, leading to a decrease in the loan growth rate to 6.9%, down from 8.7% the previous year [2][3]. - July is traditionally a low month for credit, as June often sees higher lending due to banks' performance assessments and businesses' cash flow needs [2][3]. - The impact of local government debt swaps on loan data remains significant, with estimates suggesting that these swaps have influenced loan growth by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financing Environment - The high growth rates of social financing scale and M2 reflect a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a suitable financial environment for the real economy [4][5]. - As of the end of July, the social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, indicating a robust increase in financing activities [4]. - Government bond issuance has been a major driver of social financing growth, with a more proactive fiscal policy supporting economic demand [4][5]. Group 3: Loan Structure and Interest Rates - The structure of loans is optimizing to meet the demands of economic transformation, with inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing showing growth rates of 11.8% and 8.5%, respectively [7]. - Loan interest rates remain low, with new corporate loans averaging around 3.2% and personal housing loans at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a favorable credit supply environment [7]. - The reduction in financing costs has positively impacted effective demand, with some businesses reporting interest rates halved compared to previous levels [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability in the second half of the year, supporting employment, businesses, and market expectations, which will facilitate smoother domestic economic circulation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first seven months of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In July, the new social financing maintained a year-on-year increase, supported by government bond financing, despite fluctuations in new credit data due to credit overdraft and hidden debt replacement [1][2] - The increase in loans is subject to seasonal characteristics, with July typically being a "small credit month," and historical data shows that manufacturing and construction PMI averages are lower in July compared to June [2] - The growth of social financing in July was primarily driven by government special bonds and corporate bond financing, with new government bonds amounting to 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The difference in growth rates between narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) narrowed to 3.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [3] - It is expected that after short-term disturbances subside, new credit in August will return to positive values, and social financing will remain at a high level, with M2 continuing to grow rapidly and M1's growth rate accelerating [3] - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a supportive stance in the second half of the year, focusing on reducing financing costs and increasing credit availability to stimulate domestic demand [3]