- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[10][11] - The "Total Heat Indicator" is defined as the sum of the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of a stock, normalized by its market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][10] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "Others" group has the highest change rate[16][18] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 2.1% in 2026[19] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 10 and bottom 10 stocks by total heat within the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate each week, and holding them equally[35] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of low-heat stocks within high-heat concepts has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[37]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.82%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 36,010.93 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, media, computer, and defense industries led the gains, while oil, coal, and real estate sectors lagged behind. Concept stocks related to Sora (text-to-video), MLOps, and AI applications saw significant increases, while rental rights, animal vaccines, and glyphosate concepts experienced declines [2][7] - The Hong Kong market also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.44% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.1%. In overseas markets, the three major US indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.17%, S&P 500 up by 0.16%, and Nasdaq up by 0.26% [2][7] Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission and three other departments jointly issued guidelines to clarify the layout and investment direction of government investment funds. The guidelines emphasize supporting major strategies and key areas, promoting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and nurturing emerging pillar industries while prohibiting investments in restricted or eliminated industries [3][7] Industry Analysis - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative aims to accelerate the commercialization of brain-computer interface technology. The policy encourages the development of intelligent terminals and focuses on key scenarios such as industrial inspection and remote medical care, promoting the commercialization of new terminals like AR/VR devices and brain-computer interfaces [8][9] - The brain-computer interface industry is currently in a critical transition phase characterized by technological breakthroughs, clinical validation, and commercial landing. The global competition landscape shows the US leading in invasive technologies while China excels in non-invasive applications. Key competitive factors include electrodes, chips, and algorithms [9][11] - The domestic film market is projected to see a significant increase in box office revenue in 2025, with a 22.0% year-on-year growth to 51.83 billion yuan, driven by high-quality content such as "Nezha" which contributed nearly 30% of the total box office. The number of moviegoers is expected to rise by 22.6% to 1.238 billion [11][12] - The number of new cinemas is expected to grow, with 1,065 new cinemas opening in 2025, a 3.8% increase year-on-year. Wanda Cinemas continues to maintain its leading position in the industry, achieving a box office of 8.69 billion yuan, accounting for 16.76% of the total market [13]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.51% to 3,878.00 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.78% to 12,955.25 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.67 trillion RMB, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 2.279 billion HKD [2][8] - The transportation, non-ferrous metals, and coal industries showed the highest gains, while the media and computer sectors faced the largest declines. Notably, the cultivated diamond and hyperbaric oxygen chamber concept indices saw significant increases, whereas the Kuaishou concept and MLOps concept indices experienced notable declines [2][8] Industry Overview - The report highlights the successful maiden flight of China's reusable carrier rocket, Zhuque-3, marking a significant milestone in the commercial space sector. The Chinese commercial space industry is projected to reach a scale of 7-10 trillion RMB by 2030, with capabilities for in-orbit maintenance and construction of spacecraft becoming a reality [3][9] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning and industry layout for major state-owned enterprises [3][9] Investment Highlights - The trading card game (TCG) market is evolving into a comprehensive cultural consumption product, driven by IP ecosystems. The core logic revolves around "collecting-exchanging-value accumulation," with emotional connections between IP and consumers being crucial for long-term engagement [10][11] - The TCG industry has established a complete industrial chain covering IP authorization, content creation, product manufacturing, channel distribution, and community operation. The upstream sector relies heavily on IP as the fundamental driver of user engagement and retention [11][12] - The design aspect is critical for product differentiation and targeting specific consumer segments, enhancing brand value and maximizing user lifecycle value [12][13] - The distribution channels are characterized by a dual approach of "offline foundation and online expansion," with offline channels focusing on high accessibility and experience, while online channels provide flexibility and broad coverage [13][14] Industry Development - The integration of TCG with diverse business models is highlighted, with examples such as Pokémon's multi-ecosystem approach that combines online digital empowerment with offline experiences and global competitions [14] - Companies like Huali Technology are exploring new avenues by merging gaming equipment with TCG, aiming to enhance consumer experiences through innovative integrations [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich upstream IP resources and original IP development capabilities, leading companies in TCG design and manufacturing, and those with significant advantages in sales channels [15]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant adjustment with the ChiNext index leading the decline, as all major indices closed in the red [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3384.82, down 0.44%, while the ChiNext index fell by 1.17% to 2037.27 [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (up 1.10%), Banking (up 0.48%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (up 0.33%), while the worst performers were Defense Industry (down 1.97%) and Computer (down 1.87%) [3][4] - Concept sectors such as Genetically Modified Organisms (up 3.15%) and Sino-Korean Free Trade Zone (up 2.30%) showed strong performance, whereas EDR Concept (down 2.63%) and MLOps Concept (down 2.56%) lagged [3][4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with potential structural opportunities arising from positive policy implementations and breakthroughs in technology [7] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as Finance, Public Utilities, Non-ferrous Metals, Pharmaceutical Biology, and TMT for potential investment opportunities [7]