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LPG早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market shows a situation where the internal valuation is relatively high. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains strong, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, providing short - term support. Attention should be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Information Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4415 (-9), in Shandong was 4400 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (-20). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 292 (+164), the 01 - 02 month spread was 68 (-9), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 237 (-31). As of 21:00, FEI was 527 (-4) and CP was 521 (-3) dollars per ton [1] Weekly Views - The futures market was volatile, with a basis of 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread of 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread of - 211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). Civil LPG prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4411 (+88). The foreign market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The internal and external markets weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI dropping to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium for propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]
LPG早报-20251209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].
LPG早报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]