Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market has an overall high valuation. The domestic chemical market is strong, and civil demand is increasing, providing driving support. In winter, Middle - East LPG supplies decrease, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia opens, providing short - term support for CP and MB. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] 3) Summary by Related Information Day - to - Day Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices in East China were 4323 (+13), in Shandong 4460 (+10), and in South China 4360 (+25). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4490 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 6 (+37) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 84 (+8). The December CP official prices were announced, with propane and butane at 495/485 dollars/ton (+20/+25). FEI and CP paper goods were 514.6 and 501.63 dollars/ton respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The futures price went up, with a basis of - 89 (-72), a 01 - 02 month spread of 76 (-32), and a 03 - 04 month spread of - 192 (+51). The number of warehouse receipts was 4811 lots (+250). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the cheapest delivery product in East China at 4274 (+8), in Shandong at 4460 (+120), and in South China at 4650 (+85). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4490 (-20). The overseas market rose significantly. The December CP official prices were announced, with propane and butane at 495/485 (+20/+25). The oil - gas ratio decreased, the month spread strengthened, and the domestic - overseas spread weakened, with CP > FEI > MB. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 99 (+21), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 11.25 (+4.25), 38 (+3), and 39 (+0) respectively. The freight from the Middle - East to the Far East was 72 (+5). The FEI - MOPJ spread reached - 25 (+30). The spot profit of propylene produced by PDH in Shandong recovered slightly, while the futures profit dropped significantly; the alkylation unit was in a poor state; the MTBE production profit fluctuated. The arrival volume increased slightly, the external release increased by +2.57%. Supported by demand, refinery inventories decreased by - 1.98%, and port inventories decreased slightly (-1.27%). The PDH operating rate was 69.82% (+0.18pct) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Group 1: Report Core Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Propane CFR South China, Propane CIF Japan, MB Propane Spot, CP Forecast Contract Price, Shandong Ether Rear Carbon Four, Shandong Alkylated Oil, Paper Import Profit, and Main Contract Basis on July 1, 2025, are 4690, 4582, 4600, 580, 530, 72, 556, 5120, 7850, -86, and 482 respectively [1] - The daily changes of these data are -10, -18, 20, 10, 6, -2, -3, 110, 0, -91, and 4 respectively [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - The weekly view shows that the market is mainly stabilizing. The PG futures price has weakened, with a small change in the monthly spread (the latest 08 - 09 spread is 100). The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4582 [1] - The PP price has weakened, FEI and CP prices are basically the same, and the PDH production profit has deteriorated. The civil LPG price first rose and then fell. The overall supply is relatively large, and high - price products are resisted by downstream customers. The PG futures price has fallen sharply, the basis has strengthened to 345, and the monthly spread has changed little [1] - The external market price has weakened significantly, the oil - gas ratio has first decreased and then increased. The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly, the PG - CP has weakened to -4 (-33), and the FEI - CP has weakened significantly. The import price has dropped significantly [1] - The PDH spot production profit has improved, the paper - based production profit has increased, the alkylated oil profit has increased significantly, the MTBE gas separation etherification profit is basically flat, and the isomerization etherification profit has increased [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The port inventory has increased due to more arrivals, the factory inventory has increased slightly with regional differentiation (East China's inventory has decreased, while South China and Shandong's have increased), and the external sales have increased [1] - The PDH operating rate has increased to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), the alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and the MTBE output is basically flat. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (+0) [1] Group 4: Market Forecast - Next week, it is expected that the PDH and alkylation operating rates will increase slightly, the combustion demand will remain weak, low prices will stimulate sales, and the subsequent prices will generally be stable [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will be boosted, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical factors have significantly escalated, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis Information - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4630. The PG futures price has increased, with the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 6 to 97. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The PG futures price has strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks. The 07 contract basis has weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads have weakened significantly, with 07 - 08 at 10 and 07 - 09 at 195 [1] Price Changes - From June 1 to June 20, 2025, the daily changes in prices include: South China LPG -10, East China LPG 7, Shandong LPG 80, Shandong ether - post - carbon - four 1, Shandong alkylated oil -5, etc. [1] Market Conditions - The CFR prices of propane in South China and East China are basically flat. The outer - market prices have continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio has increased [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread has strengthened, FEI - MB has strengthened slightly, FEI - CP and MB - CP have weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount has weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount has dropped significantly to 12 US dollars. Freight has increased slightly [1] Downstream Profits - The PDH spot profit has improved due to the increase in drawing prices. The profit of producing PP with FEI has decreased, while the profit of producing with CP has increased. The profits of alkylation and MTBE have decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has shifted downward [1] Fundamental Information - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, while factory inventories have remained basically flat, and external sales have remained basically unchanged [1] - Chemical demand has support, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing, and the alkylation rate remaining basically flat. Subsequently, many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads, driving up the PDH operating rate [1] Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 at Jinneng Chemical and 377 at Shanghai Yuchi [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Expected supply to increase, chemical demand to rise, and combustion demand to be weak, with an overall weak fundamental situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4510, in East China decreased by 12 to 4505, and in South China decreased by 50 to 4750; etherified C4 decreased by 60 to 4680; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4510 [1] - CP import cost slightly increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit slightly increased; PG futures prices were strong, with the 06 contract basis at -28 (latest 85), the 06 - 07 monthly spread at -8 (latest 87), and the 07 - 09 monthly spread at 3 (latest 156); the US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - Civil gas prices significantly declined, etherified C4 rebounded, the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; PG futures prices declined due to weak spot prices; the 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference significantly declined, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Supply and Demand - Arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat; the commercial volume slightly increased and was expected to continue increasing; at the same time, expected arrivals were expected to increase [1] - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production gross profit declined, and PDH operation was expected to continue to rebound next week; alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability significantly declined to -40.5 (-308), and operation was expected to slightly increase next week [1] - MTBE prices generally declined by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, profits from gas fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined; expected MTBE supply to fluctuate narrowly, gasoline demand difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]