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LPG早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:21
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LPG早报-20251209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].
LPG早报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]
LPG早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Domestic civil LPG may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with overall peak - season expectations; the contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Information Price and Basis - **Daily Price Changes**: On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4377 (+3), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4455 (+5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4630 (+130). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 3. The daily change of the basis was (-71), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 87 (+15). FEI was 494.68 (+0), and CP was 468.68 (+0.68) dollars/ton [1]. - **PG Main Contract**: The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 month spread was 72 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; prices in Shandong were 4380 (+80), in East China 4374 (+95), and in South China 4450 (+50). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4500 (+80) [1]. - **External and Internal Price Relationships**: External prices fell; the internal - external relationship strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and freight rates were basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest value at - 73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - **Profit Changes**: The profit of PDH in Shandong decreased significantly (some plants stopped production). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival volume was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operation rate was 75.49% (+1.6), due to Lihuayi Weiyuan operating at full capacity, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei successively stopped production [1].
LPG早报-20251107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in the official CP price [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4374 (+33), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4440 (+50). The price of etherified carbon four was 4520 (-90). The lowest delivery location was Shandong [1] - The FEI was 490 (-14) and the CP was 463 (-7) dollars per ton. The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was -14 (+55), and the December - January spread was 80 (-33) [1] - The cheapest deliverable was civil gas in East China at 4279; Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), and South China 4400 (-5). The etherified carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50) [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 lots (+1778). The external market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI monthly spread was -5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was -14.4 dollars (-6.4) [1] - The official November CP price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75) [1] - The on - shore account water for propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The FEI - MOPI was -66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - The profit of PDH decreased slightly. The profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, port inventory rebounded, but there was an expected increase in chemical demand [1] Market Structure - The basis changed by +55 to -14, and the December - January spread changed by -33 to 80. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, and the basis changed by +63 to 26, and the December - January spread changed by -16 to 72 [1]
LPG早报-20251106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 00:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the downward trend of CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the settlement of Sino - US tariffs on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Daily price changes**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China were 4341 (+26), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (+0). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4610 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 110 (+38), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 76 (-4). FEI was 494 (-10) and CP was 466 (-12) dollars per ton [1] - **IPG contract situation**: The main IPG contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong's price was 4300 (-60), East China's was 4279 (+0), South China's was 4400 (-5), and Shandong's ether - post - carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] External Market and Spread - **External market price changes**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP spread was 133 (-18.6), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP spread was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The latest FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - **Profit situation**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded. However, there was an expected increase in chemical demand. The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]
LPG早报-20251105
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the China - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Daily Changes in Civil Gas and Ether - After Carbon Four**: On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4315 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (-5). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (+20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 76 (+90), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 96 (+18). FEI was 503 (-15) and CP was 471 (-11) dollars/ton [1] - **IPG Main Contract Data**: The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), South China 4400 (-5), and Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 hands (+1778) [1] - **External Market and Related Price Data**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI monthly spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Industry Conditions - **Profit and Inventory**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1] - **Operating Rate and Equipment Status**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhu will undergo maintenance, while Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]
LPG早报-20251104
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 00:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the decline in CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4297 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+60), and in South China 4395 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4680 (+260). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 4 (+57), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 100 (+24). FEI was 518 (+1), and CP was 483 (-5) dollars/ton [1] - The main contract of IPG fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4279. The price in Shandong was 4300 (-60), in East China 4279 (+0), and in South China 4400 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] - The outer - market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival cost of propane in East China was 85 (+6) [1] Device Profits and Operating Rates - PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Inventory and Demand - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventory rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1]
LPG早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward with an expected improvement in the domestic trading atmosphere and a possible slight price increase, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] - PDH profit slightly decreased, alkylation unit profit significantly declined, and MTBE production gross profit changed little [1] - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected growth in chemical demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Price Data - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4279 (-6), in Shandong was 4300 (+20), and in South China was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4420 (+50). The lowest delivery location was Shandong with a basis of - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33) [1] - **External Market Prices**: FEI was 508 (-4), CP was 472.6 (-1.7) dollars/ton. FEI month spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), CP month spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The 11 - month CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The internal and external PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Inventory and Production Data - **Port Inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded [1] - **PDH开工率**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Warehouse Receipt Data - The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 lots (+1778), including 2300 from Wanhua, 1628 (+1628) from Jingbo, 150 (+150) from Ouhua, 64 from Yunda, and 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical [1]