MTBE装置
Search documents
能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251102
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 12:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].
国泰君安期货·能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:54
Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].