国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年1月4日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | 注：节假日部分数据未更新 | | --- | 本周LPG观点：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 成本方面，1月CP官价高开，部分提振市场情绪；国际市场供应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东检修季，现货供应短期内维持偏 紧，但存在逐渐增量预期。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，辽宁金发PDH装置停工，预计节后回归；滨华PDH装 置虽有短暂波动但迅速恢复，多套装置的交替变动对市场整体需求冲击有限。 观点 本周，受节假 ...

PDH行业亏到"扛不住"？ 回顾去年PDH行业的利润走势，呈现出明显的"先扬后抑"特征。据业内人士介绍，去年7至8月是全年利 润最高的时期，核心原因是当时处于丙烷需求淡季，原料价格偏低，且下游PP价格反弹，因此加工费 大幅提升。但好景不长，自去年10月中旬起，PDH行业利润便持续下滑，如今更是陷入"吨亏破千"的困 境。 对此，中信期货分析师陈子昂表示，近期PDH行业亏损持续扩大的主要原因是其核心下游PP价格持续 走弱。从供需格局来看，2025年PP产能增速已达12%，2026年预计仍有10%左右的新产能投放，而实际 需求增速仅为4%~5%，供过于求的格局对PDH行业利润形成了持续压制。 原料端的压力也在不断加大。陈子昂提到，印度及日本的季节性旺季采购预期推动进口丙烷价格上行， 去年四季度丙烷合同价从底部回升，国内深加工企业普遍反映丙烷现货贴水较高，进一步挤压了PDH行 业的利润空间。更关键的是，当前PP正处于需求淡季，终端制品企业的采买意愿偏低，价格没有反弹 动力，PDH行业的利润也难以改善。上个月，已有部分PDH装置关停，且复产意愿不高，本月检修装置 增加的预期升温。 对相关品种影响几何？ PDH行业的经营 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月28日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 2 本周LPG观点：短期供应偏紧，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.4万吨，较上周环比增加1.2%；其中，民用气商品量21.9万吨（+0.4%），醚后商品量16.8万吨（+1.3%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价偏强整理，周尾收跌；国际市场供 应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东现货供应维持偏紧，FEI、CP纸货周内仍维持偏强走势；需求方面，下游化工利润水平差，一 季度国内PDH检修计划较多。隆众口径，国际船期到港量21.9万吨，以华东为主。本周实际到港量继续减少，各地区锚地均出现待卸船舶，后 续到港不确定性增强；据监测，下周到船计划接近40万吨，或以华南为主。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，滨华新材料（60）开工后陆续提负荷，PDH开工率 上涨1.4%至76 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月21日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期趋势偏弱 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.8万吨，较上周环比增加0.8%；其中，民用气商品量21.8万吨（-0.3%），醚后商品量16.6万吨（-3.2%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价低位震荡运行；国际市场供应方面， 美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏紧；需求方面，下游化工利润水平差，一季度国内PDH检修计划较多，买盘预期走弱，FEI、CP纸货周 内大幅下挫。国际船期到港量48 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 节奏博弈下的利润再平衡 ---2026 年 LPG&丙烯期货行情展望 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：C3 产业链运行逻辑有望由 2025 年的单边压缩转向区间震荡下的利润修复。丙烷价格中枢预计仍维持相对低 位，为 C3 产业链提供的成本端支撑偏弱；同时，丙烯在产能投放放缓而下游仍有驱动的背景下，供需边际预期有所改善， 但仍需关注低利润背景下装置投产的实际兑现情况。 我们的逻辑：2026 年，丙烷供应依然有增量，集中释放主要出现在下半年；需求端则整体趋稳，短期内难以快速扩张。对应 到产业链节奏，上半年在丙烷增量兑现不充分、丙烯及 PP 新增投产有限的预期下，丙烯供需偏弱格局预计延续，产能投放 的节奏错配以及存量装置的运行波动仍是阶段性改善的主要驱动；下半年则随着丙烷供应放量，成本端压力重新显现，同时 在丙烯供需边际改善的背景下，PDH 利润有望有所修复。综合来看，丙烷更多表现为成本端约束， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月14日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 2 本周LPG观点：短期低位震荡，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.3万吨，较上周环比增加1.1%；其中，民用气商品量21.9万吨（+3.0%），醚后商品量17.1万吨（-1.2%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价呈下跌趋势；国际市场供应方面， 美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担 忧未来前景。隆众口径中国国际船期到港量60.6万吨，以山东为主；下周计划到船量仍然较多且个别港口较集中， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月7日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量21.2万吨（+0.7%），醚后商品量17.3万吨（+2.4%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏 紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担忧未来前景；此外，高价抑制买兴，买盘 热情不及上周，丙烷价格震荡整理 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]