Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].

2025 年 10 月 27 日 LPG：上行驱动有限，关注成本变动 丙烯：供需偏宽松，短期偏弱震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,258 | 0.52% | 4,305 | 1.10% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,145 | 0.56% | 4,191 | 1.11% | | | PL2601 | 6,125 | -0.47% | 6,155 | 0.49% | | | PL2602 | 6,185 | -0.42% | 6,211 | 0.42% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 59,283 | -14169 | 93,555 | 881 | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next three months, the supply side is expected to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand will steadily recover, and PDH plants may maintain high operation rates. However, with the expected increase in OPEC+ production, international propane prices are under pressure, and domestic refinery gas also faces significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is likely to fall rather than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On September 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of East China LPG increased by 17 yuan to 4380 yuan, Shandong decreased by 120 yuan to 4430 yuan, and South China decreased by 40 yuan to 4600 yuan. The price of etherified C4 increased by 70 yuan to 4620 yuan. The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis increasing by 18 to 308 [1] Weekly Viewpoints - In the external market, Middle - East supplies are in tight balance, US inventories are at a historical high with high - load exports. The procurement needs of Japanese and Korean chemical industries, Chinese PDH plants, and Indian peak - season stockpiling support prices, but the warm - winter expectation may suppress Japanese and Korean restocking. The shipping freight from the US to the Far East has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window is closed. Domestically, upstream inventory reduction and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously before the holiday, resulting in small price fluctuations [1] - The profit of PDH plants has improved (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) due to the decline in raw material arrival prices. Etherified C4 is not actively purchased due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profits. The expected increase in OPEC+ production puts pressure on international propane prices, and domestic refinery gas also has significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is expected to have limited upside [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: Wanhua Penglai restarted, Hebei Haiwei has a restart expectation, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed to the middle and late ten - days, Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued until the end of the month, and the external supply of propylene in Shandong tightened. In the East China region, the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa continued to stop, and the overall propylene start - up decreased month - on - month, supporting the continuous increase of propylene spot prices [2] - Demand side: The current high price of propylene has significantly narrowed the profits of downstream industries, and the overall start - up has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up of PP decreased significantly month - on - month, the profits of butanol and octanol were acceptable, and the start - up increased month - on - month. The start - up of acrylic acid increased the most due to the restart of Wanhua's unit. The start - up of phenol - acetone decreased significantly due to the maintenance of Shenghong and Longjiang Chemical's units. Overall, the increase in propylene spot prices has compressed downstream profits, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries has weakened, which may continue to suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, but the geopolitical situation is still volatile, and oil prices are rising in a volatile manner. The price of external propane has been firm recently, and the cost support for propylene is acceptable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes charts of propylene's main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][31] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][47][56][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report includes charts of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure, and demand follow - up is weak. There are no suggestions for inter - period and cross - variety investments [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: The overall propylene start - up has little change. Some PDH devices in Hebei and Shandong have restart expectations, while some in Shandong and Qingdao have delays or continued maintenance. The recent tightening of propylene external sales still supports prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease later. - Demand side: The profits of propylene downstream have significantly narrowed, and the overall start - up has declined month - on - month. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price has fallen. The Saudi CP propane price in September is flat month - on - month, and the external propane trend is strong [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures cover propylene CFR in China minus naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [14][22][24] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures show the production profits and start - up rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report provides figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure and may struggle to keep up [3] - Inter - term: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to PDH device maintenance on the supply side and rigid downstream demand, the spot price of propylene continues to be strong, but the futures market shows a volatile trend. The 01 contract is far away, so the impact of supply - demand drivers is weak. The price of propylene is supported by the tightening of external supply in the short term and the overall downstream demand has slightly recovered, but the overall profit of downstream products is average, and the increase in propylene spot price compresses downstream profits, which restricts the upward space of propylene. The cost of crude oil is rising, and the price of imported propane has rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant data involve the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of downstream products such as PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is provided [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and the local spot prices of domestic LPG have dropped again. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East fades, the overseas supply is abundant, especially the US LPG exports are still at a high level. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports. The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% due to partial plant maintenance at the end of June. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1] Market Analysis Summary Price Information - On July 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4430 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4620 - 4740 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4580 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 565 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4488 yuan/ton for propane, down 119 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 570 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton, and butane was 530 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4449 yuan/ton for propane, down 197 yuan/ton, and 4173 yuan/ton for butane, down 80 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply: Overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are high, and the supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output is gradually increasing after the end of maintenance, and the recent arrival volume has rebounded, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - Demand: The combustion - end consumption is in the off - season. The overall operating load of PDH plants once rebounded to over 70% but dropped to 68% at the end of June due to partial plant maintenance. In an environment of weak terminal demand and low profits, the demand for PDH raw materials may not continue to increase [1]