Q&A 商业航天行业在过去两个星期的表现如何？未来的发展趋势是什么？ 过去两个星期，商业航天板块的走势明显超出整个大盘。我们认为这是由于行 业出现了三个重要的拐点：政策性拐点、业绩性拐点和技术性拐点。 能否详细解释这三个拐点？ 第一个是政策性的拐点。自 2023 年、2024 年到 2025 年的中央经济工作会 议和政府工作报告中提到了许多新质新域的生产力领域，但只有商业航天和低 商业航天：坚定三重拐点，抓住产业浪潮，如何参与投资 机会 20251207 摘要 政策拐点：国家对商业航天和低空经济的重视体现在成立专门司局，表 明自上而下推动的行业发展模式，商业航天司旨在解决火箭可回收技术 和引入信息通信产业优势企业。 业绩拐点：2025 年 8 月以来，国家主要新作招标大规模展开，发射频 次显著增加，相关企业如陈昌和郑磊在今年一二三季度业绩已有明显改 善。 技术拐点：可回收火箭方面，国内液体发动机技术已相对成熟，可回收 控制算法也已具备条件，预计 2026 年上半年会有突破。NTN 体制方面， 国内 5G 网络完善且 6G 路线图明确，卫星通信产业将遵循 3GPP R20 或 R21 版本发展。 火箭可回收技术 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1]. Core Insights - The NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) industry chain is maturing rapidly, with ground infrastructure poised for significant development. The MWC Shanghai 2025 highlighted satellite internet as a key focus, presenting at least three catalysts and investment opportunities for the sector [2][15]. - The next-generation low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation design is nearly mature, with domestic projects like Qianfan, State Grid, Hongyan, and Tianqi starting to form. The NTN architecture is becoming mainstream, benefiting major 5G equipment manufacturers such as Huawei, ZTE, and others [3][16]. - As the trial commercial use of low Earth orbit constellations approaches, ground infrastructure will see accelerated growth. The low Earth satellite communication system in China is expected to enter public testing this year, with consumer-level satellite networking anticipated in the second half of the year [4][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Investment Suggestions - The NTN industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming commercial trials of low Earth orbit satellites, with significant opportunities in ground infrastructure and satellite payloads [15][17]. - Key companies to watch include: - Low Earth Satellite Payload: Xinke Mobile, Fenghuo Communication, ZTE, Tongyu Communication, Jingxin Communication, and others [20]. - Low Earth Ground Infrastructure: Changjiang Communication, Zhenyou Technology, Xinke Mobile, China Tower, and others [20]. - Super Node Communication: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Wolong Nuclear Materials, and others [20]. 2. Market Overview - The telecommunications index rose by 1.58% during the week of June 16-20, 2025, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index saw declines [8][18]. - The top-performing sectors included optical modules (+9.6%), optical cables (+8.2%), and liquid cooling (+3.8%) [8][18]. 3. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included Longfly Fiber (+15.10%), Yuanjie Technology (+12.06%), and others leading in gains, while Zhenyou Technology and others faced significant declines [34][36].