September 11, 2025 09:01 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China Consumer: Where is consumption trending now? | M September 11, 2025 09:01 AM GMT Lillian Lou | | Foundation | | --- | --- | --- | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | Equity Analyst | | | | China Consumer: Where is consumption trending Dustin Wei | Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6502 | | Equity Analyst | Dustin.Wei@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7823 | | now? Hildy Ling | | | | Equity An ...

September 11, 2025 09:01 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China Consumer: Where is consumption trending now? | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | September 11, 2025 09:01 AM GMT | | Foundation | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Lillian Lou | | | China Consumer: Where is consumption trending | Equity Analyst Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com Dustin Wei | +852 2848-6502 | | | Equity Analyst Dustin.Wei@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7823 | | now? | Hildy Ling | | | | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The focus is on the **China equity market**, particularly the interest from **US investors** in **Chinese equities** and sectors such as **AI humanoid robotics**, **biotech**, and **new consumption** [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Increased Investor Interest**: There has been a significant rise in interest from US investors in the China market, with over **90%** expressing willingness to increase exposure, marking the highest level since early **2021** [3][4]. 2. **Shift in Investment Focus**: US investors are expanding their focus beyond **ADR** and internet stocks to include the **onshore A-share market**, particularly in sectors like **AI/semiconductors** and **robotics** [4][7]. 3. **Positive Market Sentiment**: Factors contributing to this positive sentiment include: - China's leadership in tech sectors [7]. - Incremental policy steps by Chinese policymakers aimed at stabilizing the economy [7]. - Improved liquidity in the China market, which is expected to sustain market rallies [7]. - A growing demand for diversification from US-centric allocations [7]. 4. **Current Positioning of US Investors**: Many US investors are just beginning to re-enter the China market after years of reduced investment, indicating a potential for increased inflows as they conduct further research [10] [11]. Important Considerations and Monitoring Points 1. **Macro Concerns**: Ongoing concerns about deflation and the housing market, with excess inventory expected to take **10 to 12 months** to digest [11]. 2. **Policy Direction**: Monitoring the upcoming **4th plenary** for insights on domestic price stabilization and economic rebalancing is crucial [11]. 3. **Hedging Tools**: The availability of hedging tools is essential for macro and quant funds to participate more actively in the A-share market [11]. 4. **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: Potential meetings between US and Chinese leaders around the **APEC summit** and ongoing negotiations could impact market volatility [11]. Additional Insights - The overall preferred trading markets for US investors remain **ADR > Hong Kong > A-shares**, indicating a hierarchy in trading preferences [4]. - The report suggests that while the sentiment is positive, investors should remain cautious and monitor specific macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that could affect market conditions [11].

天风证券在最新报告《龙头公司财报陆续发布，继续看好港股中概AI方向机会》中认为，南向资金持 续结构性流入，建议持续关注互联网、消费、智能驾驶的产业趋势机会。互联网方面，该机构指出，近 期多家龙头互联网公司发布Q2业绩。腾讯集团二季度实现营收1845亿元，同比增长15%；毛利1050亿 元，同比增长22%；经营利润（Non-IFRS）692亿元，同比增长18%。京东集团第二季度收入为3567亿 元，同比增加22.4%，远超市场预期，再次刷新近三年来同比增速的纪录，归属于公司普通股股东净利 润为62亿元。 8月19日早盘，港股三大指数集体高开后震荡下行，恒生科技指数跌幅一度超0.5%。盘面上，科网股涨 跌不一，油气设备与服务股活跃。A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数下跌， 持仓股跌多涨少，其中，小鹏汽车、比亚迪电子、理想汽车、金蝶国际、蔚来等跌幅居前。 南向资金年内净流入超9400亿港元，主要流向人工智能和新消费等核心资产。AI、新消费这两大赛道 体现出新兴产业的发展趋势和一定的稀缺性，有望进一步吸引资金加码，助推港股行情持续向好。公开 信息显示，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the polarization between New and Old Consumption in China, highlighting three key trends: 1. A stagnant economy limits overall growth, creating selective opportunities [1] 2. Supply-demand mismatches and corporate competency gaps challenge companies amid commoditized supply and demanding consumers [1] 3. A new generation of consumers seeks instant, experiential, and affordable "dopamine" experiences, reflecting a global trend [1] Analytical Framework - The "365" framework is reiterated, consisting of: 1. **Three macro themes**: structural imbalance of supply, demand, and intermediary channels [2] 2. **Six behavior patterns**: emotional value quest, instant gratification, focus on IP/contents, she-economy, brand demystification, and upgrade vs. downgrade [2] 3. **Five baskets**: emotional value, health & wellness, addictiveness, value for money, and new channels [2] New vs. Old Consumption - Definitions of New and Old Consumption are often ambiguous; adaptation to trends is crucial [3] - Strategies for Old Consumption include product innovation, brand rejuvenation, and channel recalibration [3] - Risks for New Consumption include scalability, lifecycle sustainability, and regulatory challenges [3] Market Dynamics - New Consumption was a significant trade in 1H25 due to macro weakness and liquidity, but recent market rotations have negatively impacted it [4] - Earnings sustainability and visibility are emphasized as key factors for investment decisions [4] Stock Picks - Preferred companies based on fundamentals and valuation include: - **New Consumption**: Pop Mart and Laopu Gold - **Old Consumption incorporating New Consumption**: Mao Geping, Eastroc, and Nongfu Spring - Mixue is rated as Underperform due to unfavorable risk-reward dynamics [5] Performance Metrics - New Consumption stocks have shown a 70% increase in share price since March 2025, while Old Consumption remains largely flat [14] - New Consumption trades at a 71% premium to Old Consumption on average since 2024 [17] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report identifies a quest for emotional value driven by stress and a fragmented society, leading to a rise in "dopamine consumption" [45] - Instant gratification and granular "dopamine" are becoming prevalent due to shorter attention spans and digital media immersion [56] - The she-economy is reshaping consumption narratives, with female consumers becoming more vocal and influential [82] Brand Dynamics - Brand demystification is occurring as traditional branding foundations are challenged, leading to a new storytelling journey for brands [94] - The rise of emotional value and community sharing is significant in the she-economy, with consumers focusing on quality-for-money rather than brand prestige [93] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of consumer behavior in China, particularly the distinctions between New and Old Consumption, and the implications for investment strategies in the consumer sector [1][2][3][4][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Companies Involved**: NetEase, Bilibili, Kuaishou - **Industry**: China Digital Entertainment Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance**: China digital entertainment stocks have seen significant YTD performance with Kuaishou, NetEase, and Bilibili rising by +75%, +57%, and +30% respectively, compared to HSI's +27% [1][11] 2. **Downgrade Ratings**: NetEase and Bilibili have been downgraded from Overweight (OW) to Neutral due to less attractive risk-reward profiles after recent stock rallies [1][11] 3. **NetEase Earnings Outlook**: Limited earnings upside for NetEase is anticipated due to rising game promotion expenses and a lack of blockbuster game launches in the second half of 2025. The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 16x, with a projected EPS CAGR of 6% for 2026-2027 [1][11][26] 4. **Bilibili Revenue Growth**: Bilibili's revenue growth is expected to decelerate from over 20% in the first half of 2025 to 5% in the second half, primarily due to a high comparison base from mobile games [1][11] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests accumulating stocks with reasonable valuations (less than 20x P/E) and double-digit profit CAGR, favoring Kuaishou with a 14x P/E and 20% profit CAGR [1][11] Financial Forecasts and Changes 1. **NetEase Financials**: - Revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 113.54 billion, with an adjusted net income of RMB 39.87 billion [22] - Expected net profit growth to slow to -1% in Q4 2025 and -9% in Q1 2026 [11][26] 2. **Bilibili Financial Revisions**: - Net revenue for 2025 revised down by 1% to RMB 30.20 billion, with mobile games revenue down by 6% [5] - Advertising revenue forecasted to decline by 3% [5] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Conditions**: The digital entertainment sector is influenced by themes such as AI and the experience economy, which are seen as safer investments compared to e-commerce and local services [1] 2. **Competition and Regulation**: Increased competition in the gaming market and potential regulatory changes in China pose risks to revenue growth for both NetEase and Bilibili [11][15] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: NetEase's valuation is at a 20% discount to its five-year average P/E, reflecting a cautious outlook on its future performance [14][17] Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious outlook for NetEase and Bilibili amidst strong past performance, with concerns over rising costs and competition. The recommendation is to focus on companies with solid growth potential and reasonable valuations within the digital entertainment sector.

Group 1 - The overall retail sales in the city have shown a steady recovery, with a total of 29.97 billion yuan in social retail sales in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, which is an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4] - The retail sales of limited above social consumer goods reached 11.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, but the decline has narrowed by 9.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The retail sales of limited below social consumer goods amounted to 18.34 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, which accounted for 61.2% of the total social retail sales in the city [4][10] Group 2 - The automotive sector has seen increased sales due to various factors such as trade-in subsidies, car exhibitions, and the extension of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles, with retail sales reaching 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [15] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles surged by 146.8%, indicating a strong demand in this segment [15] - Consumer demand for high-quality, personalized, and mid-to-high-end products has led to significant growth in retail sales of wearable smart devices, home appliances, and communication equipment, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 286.5%, 54.1%, and 42.4% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of large private equity firms in the A-share market has been outstanding in the first half of 2025, with an average return of 10.93% among the top 50 firms, and 94% of them achieving positive returns [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the average return for 50 large private equity firms was 10.93%, with 47 firms achieving positive returns, representing over 90% [3]. - Among the 47 firms with positive returns, 20 had returns below 10%, 21 had returns between 10% and 19.99%, and 6 firms achieved returns of 20% or more [3]. Group 2: Strategy Performance - The average return for 14 large subjective private equity firms was 5.51% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Notable firms like Shenzhen Rido Investment and Shanghai Harmony Huiyi Asset Management performed well under subjective strategies, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis and long-term holdings [5]. Group 3: Quantitative Private Equity - The performance of large quantitative private equity firms was particularly impressive, with an average return of 13.72% among 32 firms, all of which reported profits [7]. - The success of quantitative firms is attributed to their strategy models aligning well with the current market trends, particularly the small-cap growth style [7][8]. - The number of large quantitative private equity firms increased to 39, with over 2,300 new products registered in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Large private equity firms are optimistic about the market in the second half of 2025, citing opportunities in Chinese assets due to global capital rebalancing [11]. - Firms like Xing Shi Investment expect A-shares to benefit from a combination of emotional and fundamental recovery, supported by ample liquidity and reasonable valuations [11]. - Emerging growth opportunities are anticipated to expand beyond new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals into technology and cyclical industries, with a focus on AI, semiconductor equipment, and high-end manufacturing [12].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of active equity funds has shown a positive trend in the first half of the year, with over 70% achieving positive returns, particularly in the pharmaceutical and North Exchange sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 26, 2023, 6085 out of 7881 equity and mixed-asset funds reported positive returns, representing over 70% [2]. - The leading pharmaceutical fund, Huazhong Pharmaceutical Bio A, achieved a return of 75.91%, while several others exceeded 50% [2]. - North Exchange-themed funds also performed well, with the CITIC Construction North Exchange Select Fund yielding 80.71% [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic view for the second half of the year, expecting a continuation of structural market characteristics [1][3]. - Key sectors for investment include technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as having strong growth potential [1][4]. - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit clear structural features, with the index likely oscillating around a central point [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on low-entry opportunities rather than chasing high prices, given the rapid rotation of market styles [4][5]. - Specific areas of interest include technology, new consumption, stable dividend stocks, and sectors benefiting from policy support [5]. - The expected policy measures are likely to positively influence investor sentiment and the equity market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall expectation for the A-share market in the second half of 2025 is a continuation of the current oscillation and rapid rotation of hot topics, with no systemic large-scale rally anticipated [2][3] Market Assessment - Multiple institutions predict that the market will likely maintain a fluctuating pattern with significant thematic rotation [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the recovery of corporate profit growth is a key factor limiting the potential for a broad market rally [3] - The focus on corporate earnings performance is expected to contribute positively to market dynamics, with fundamental factors likely to outperform historical averages [3][4] Investment Strategy - A consensus strategy among professional institutions is to adopt a balanced allocation to manage risks while selectively focusing on structural opportunities for returns [5] - The importance of monitoring macroeconomic highlights is emphasized, with adjustments to investment strategies based on key areas such as investment, consumption, and exports [4][5] Key Directions for Investment - Institutions identify four main investment directions: 1. Deepening investments in the technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military technology [6] 2. Capitalizing on the new consumption wave, including experiential and AI-enabled consumption models [6] 3. Focusing on stable dividend assets in a weak recovery environment [6] 4. Following national policy directions, particularly in sectors like power generation and coal chemical industries [6] Short-term Outlook - Some institutions maintain an optimistic short-term outlook, suggesting a "dual-line layout" strategy that includes focusing on sectors with improving industry conditions and stable earnings [7] - The A500 index is highlighted as a key investment vehicle for capturing growth in emerging sectors [7] Long-term Perspective - Long-term confidence in the market is supported by signs of fundamental improvement and potential capital inflows [8][9] - The low valuation of the Chinese stock market compared to global peers is expected to attract both traditional and new foreign investments [9]