Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a weak oscillation, with SC performing weaker than the external market. The undecided OPEC+ production increase decision, anti - seasonal accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories, and weakening distillate oil demand weaken the fundamental support. However, the faster - than - expected pace of gasoline destocking provides some support. Geopolitical factors bring regional disturbances but have limited impact on global supply and demand. Technically, the SC contract has broken below the short - term moving average and the basis has weakened, with a risk of further decline, but the sideways movement of WTI and Brent may limit the decline. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ policy direction and the seasonal demand switch in the US [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 4, the price of the SC main contract dropped to 481 yuan/barrel (-2.47%), while WTI and Brent prices remained at 63.77 dollars/barrel and 67.39 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly from 1.62 dollars/barrel to - 0.02 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by 1.64 dollars to 3.6 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread fell from 1.2 yuan/barrel to 0.5 yuan/barrel, indicating weakened support for near - term contracts [1]. - **Supply - side**: Iraq's oil exports in August remained at 3.38 million barrels per day without significant fluctuations. Indonesia's gasoline imports decreased by 22% year - on - year due to import quota restrictions, and Shell suspended supplies at some gas stations, increasing the risk of regional supply shortages. The uncertainty of the OPEC+ production increase decision is a core disturbing factor, and if production increase continues, it may further pressure oil prices [2]. - **Demand - side**: US refinery demand is divided. EIA data shows that the derived demand for crude oil production decreased slightly from 20.015 million barrels per day to 19.82 million barrels per day, but gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly 5 months and the seventh consecutive week of decline, reflecting the remaining consumption resilience before the end of the travel peak season. Distillate fuel demand declined significantly from 5.6131 million barrels per day to 5.1089 million barrels per day, suggesting a weakening of industrial and logistics demand [3]. - **Inventory - side**: US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.415 million barrels (expected - 2.031 million barrels), offsetting the previous week's destocking, and inventories at Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves also increased. However, the larger - than - expected decline in gasoline inventories offset some of the negative factors, indicating the continuation of structural destocking of terminal oil products. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased significantly, and the spot discount remained, pressuring the heavy distillate market [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures all declined on September 4 compared to the previous day. Among them, SC decreased by 12.2 yuan/barrel (-2.47%), WTI decreased by 0.43 dollars/barrel (-0.67%), and Brent decreased by 0.51 dollars/barrel (-0.76%). Most spot prices also declined, and spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI all narrowed. US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories all increased, while the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased slightly [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: The futures prices of FU, LU, NYMEX fuel oil, etc. all declined on September 4 compared to the previous day. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased by 1.689 million tons, a 7.33% increase. Some US distillate inventories increased, while others decreased [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA crude oil imports increased, and Iraqi oil exports in August averaged 3.38 million barrels per day. In Indonesia, due to import restrictions, some Shell gas stations suspended fuel supplies, and gasoline imports decreased by 22% year - on - year as of the end of August [9][10]. - **Demand**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA distillate fuel derived demand and crude oil derived demand decreased, and gasoline production also decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: From August 22 - 29, US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories reached the highest level since the week of October 14, 2022, and gasoline inventories had the largest decline since the week of April 25, 2025, with a seventh consecutive week of decline. Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased significantly, and some energy - related futures warehouse receipts decreased [12][14]. - **Market Information**: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which may affect crude oil prices. Qatar raised the official selling prices of its crude oil. US energy minister said that oil and gasoline prices are at a healthy level. Indonesian state - owned oil company is seeking a $2.5 billion short - term loan [16]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [17][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The August 3rd OPEC+ meeting is highly anticipated by the market, and its decisions will impact the global crude oil market. Recently, OPEC+ has been accelerating production increases, with 8 core member countries' cumulative production increase accounting for 62% of the planned reduction cancellation. The meeting will determine the production increase scale for September, discuss long - term strategic directions, and address issues of non - compliant member countries. Its decisions may intensify oil price fluctuations, intensify market share competition, and have a chain reaction on downstream industries [1]. 3. Summary by Directory OPEC+ Recent Production Increase Situation Analysis - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from long - term production cuts to capacity release. Eight core member countries increased production by 411,000 barrels per day each month from May to July, far exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day. On July 5th, they decided to increase the production quota by 548,000 barrels per day in August [2]. - Saudi Arabia leads the production increase. The high demand in the Northern Hemisphere in summer provides an opportunity to expand market share, and it also aims to activate idle capacity and enhance market influence. Additionally, it is a way to reconcile internal contradictions caused by some non - compliant member countries. So far, these 8 countries have cumulatively increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day, accounting for 62% of the planned 2.2 million barrels per day reduction cancellation, and are expected to complete the cancellation in September, one year ahead of schedule [2]. 8 - Month Meeting Core Issue Research - **Determination of September Production Increase Scale**: The market generally expects that OPEC+ will focus on the September production increase scale in the August 3rd meeting and is likely to continue the production increase trend. Many predict that Saudi Arabia and its allies may approve an additional 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. However, the final scale is still uncertain as OPEC+ needs to consider global supply - demand, inventory levels, and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Discussion of Long - Term Strategic Direction**: As the first - stage large - scale production increase nears completion, OPEC+ needs to discuss whether to continue increasing production to consolidate market share or adjust the production increase rhythm or even return to production cuts to stabilize oil prices. If the cumulative production increase reaches 2.2 million barrels per day in the August meeting, OPEC+ may stop increasing production, but this depends on members' judgments of the market and interest games [4]. - **Handling Mechanism for Non - compliant Member Countries**: The issue of some member countries violating production quotas may be mentioned again. The meeting may introduce measures such as a stricter production monitoring system, economic sanctions, or adjustment of future production quotas to ensure the effective implementation of the production cut agreement and enhance OPEC+'s market control ability [5]. Potential Impact of Meeting Decisions on the Market - **Intensified Oil Price Fluctuations**: If OPEC+ decides to significantly increase production in September, global oil supply will increase, and the expectation of supply surplus will strengthen, putting downward pressure on oil prices. However, oil price trends are also affected by factors such as the global economic recovery, US monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts. The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices needs to consider the interaction of these factors [6]. - **Intensified Market Share Competition**: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase to compete for market share in the face of the diversified global energy pattern. If the meeting decides to continue increasing production, it will reshape the global crude oil market competition pattern, and other oil - producing countries may adjust their production strategies and market layouts [6]. - **Chain Reaction in Downstream Industries**: If production increase leads to lower oil prices, it will reduce the raw material costs of petrochemical enterprises and the operating costs of the transportation industry, but it will also reduce the fiscal revenue of oil - exporting countries and regions. Long - term low oil prices may inhibit the development of the new energy industry [7].