22 February 2026 | 6:57PM EST Commodities Research OIL ANALYST Raising Our Price Forecast on Lower OECD Stocks Despite Same Global Surplus; Geopolitical Risks Persist Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Filippo Cuscito +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors sh ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude forecasts by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower OECD stocks while maintaining a surplus outlook for the year [1][3] - For the year 2026, Goldman expects Brent to average $64 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $56, and WTI to average $60, an increase from $52 [1][7] - The bank's surplus forecast for 2026 is 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruptions and no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman downgraded its supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to production misses, while upgrading expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries with spare capacity [4] - The bank anticipates OPEC+ to gradually increase production starting in Q2 2026, as OECD inventories have not built up [4] - Potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia could lead to downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026, with average prices expected to rise to $65 and $61 respectively in 2027 [5]

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Core Insights - Brent crude is currently trading in the $65–$70 range, indicating a stable price corridor despite market pressures [1] - A global surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) is exerting downward pressure on oil prices, suggesting an oversupply situation in the market [1] Industry Summary - The oil market is facing challenges due to a significant surplus, which could impact future pricing strategies and investment decisions [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the situation as the surplus may lead to adjustments in production levels by major oil producers [1]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil Services - **Focus**: Implications of the political situation in Venezuela on global oil services companies Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuela's Oil Production Recovery**: - Production may increase slightly in the short term, potentially reaching several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next 2-3 years if a US-supported government is established and sanctions are lifted [2][10] - Historical peak production was approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s, with Venezuela holding about 20% of global proven oil reserves [2][11] - **Investment Requirements**: - Any recovery in production will be gradual and necessitate substantial investment [2] - Companies like Chevron, ENI, and Repsol currently have operations in Venezuela, with Chevron being the only US oil major still active [17] - **OCTG Market Potential**: - Demand for Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) in Venezuela could reach 140,000 to 240,000 tons by 2030, translating to a market size of $0.6 to $1 billion [4][30] - The current addressable OCTG market for Tenaris and Vallourec is estimated at 5.7 million tons and approximately $18 billion, indicating that the Venezuelan market could add 3-4% in volume and 3-5% in dollar terms [36] - **Tenaris and Vallourec's Position**: - Tenaris has a long-standing presence in Venezuela and supplies Chevron's OCTG needs, benefiting from logistical advantages due to local operations [3][27] - Vallourec, while currently absent from Venezuela, could supply the market from its Brazilian plant, leveraging a competitive cost base [28] - **US Oil Services Companies**: - Companies like SLB, Halliburton, and Weatherford International are positioned to benefit from increased activity in Venezuela [8][44] - SLB has indicated its ability to scale operations in Venezuela if activity increases, while Halliburton and Weatherford have historical ties and expertise that could be advantageous [8][45][46] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Oil Price Implications**: - A recovery in Venezuelan production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030 could pose significant downside risks to long-term oil prices, potentially reducing Brent oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel [11] - Current estimates suggest that Brent prices could average $58 per barrel if production declines, and $54 per barrel if production increases [10] - **Technical Requirements for OCTG**: - The extraction of heavy crude from the Orinoco Oil Belt requires complex, high-performance OCTG solutions due to the challenging conditions [29] - The majority of Venezuela's proven reserves are high-sulfur and heavy crude, necessitating robust materials and testing protocols for well integrity [29] - **Rig Count and Well Drilling**: - The estimated rig count needed to support a production level of 2 million barrels per day by 2030 is between 40 to 50 active rigs, with an annual drilling of 480 to 600 new wells [31][32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential implications for the oil services industry stemming from the evolving situation in Venezuela, highlighting both opportunities and risks for companies involved in this sector.

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Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, highlighting their complexity and associated high risks [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1].