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策略周报:可能重演14年下半年-20250713
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-13 10:45
Core Insights - The report suggests that the market performance has decoupled from earnings since September last year, resembling the period from 2013 to 2015. In the early stages of PPI decline, negative impacts on earnings dominated, but as PPI remained negative for a sufficient duration, policy and liquidity factors improved, leading to a decoupling of market performance from earnings [2][10][11] - The current macro-level asset shortage may exceed that of 2014. If the bull market is driven by liquidity and policy rather than earnings, the logic of asset scarcity becomes more significant. The current 10-year government bond yield is about half of that in 2014, and the rate of decline over the past two years is comparable to that of 2014 [3][20][22] - Insurance funds have already impacted the market, and there is potential for increased inflow from household funds. Since the pandemic in 2020, household deposits have risen rapidly, but their inflow into the stock market has been limited due to the lack of a stable profit-making effect. With the market transitioning from bearish to bullish since September last year, conditions for accelerated household fund inflow are gradually being met [22][24] Market Changes - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen significant increases in major indices, with the ChiNext 50 rising by 2.65% and the ChiNext Index by 2.36%. In contrast, sectors like coal and banking have experienced declines [38][42] - Global stock markets have shown mixed performance, with indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 performing well, while indices in Brazil and Mexico have declined [39] - The report notes a net inflow of 241.19 billion yuan from southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating strong market interest [40][48]