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申万宏源:调整后就是红十月,2026年春季可能是A股阶段性高点
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-28 15:01
格隆汇9月28日|申万宏源表示,A股调整后,"红十月"是大概率。10月又是一个关键的政策布局窗 口,调整兑现后,更有利于资本市场预期稳中有升。顺周期催化还需等待,需求侧重点看26年新一 轮"政策底"到"经济底"的推演,供给侧26年中供给出清。但25Q4顺周期催化相对乏善可陈。而科技产业 催化仍在趋势中,海外AI产业趋势向上,尚未触及边界,国内AI产业趋势同样在不断进步。当前本就 处于科技产业亮点不断增加的周期,9月调整周期以来,小级别的结构亮点不断。10月产业亮点和长期 政策布局共振,结构热度可能重新升温。此外,2026年春季可能是阶段性高点,大概率不是2026年全年 高点,更不是本轮全面牛市的高点。牛市还有纵深,随着时间的推移,全面牛市演绎的条件会越来越充 分。 ...
申万宏源:调整兑现后红十月是大概率事件 科技成长趋势性占优
智通财经网· 2025-09-28 13:06
一、A股小级别调整波段未结束的判断正在验证。中期没有下行风险,短期调整也不是大级别。调整兑现后,"红十月"是大概率:长期政策布局期临近,科 技催化仍在延续,短期性价比调整可能很快到位。 三、后续结构展望:科技成长趋势性占优,科技内部高低切换效果好于成长价值之间的高低切换。后续有新催化的新增景气方向仍会有高弹性,已经累积一 定涨幅的科技板块(海外算力、创新药,储能、固态电池、特斯拉机器人,光刻机),中期行情还有空间。反内卷是结构牛向全面牛转化的关键结构,是重要 的中期结构(光伏和化工)。港股中期展望不变,中期港股可能继续受益于"特朗普降息看涨期权"不断强化 + 新经济产业趋势发酵,港股龙头代表性强。 2026春季前,科技成长催化可能持续多于顺周期催化,看好科技成长趋势性占优。科技内部高切低、板块轮动是常态,但成长价值之间的高切低行情,很难 趋势性演绎。后续有新催化的新增景气方向,仍会有高弹性。而已经发酵了一定乐观预期的方向,中期仍有绝对收益空间,包括海外算力、创新药,储能、 固态电池、特斯拉机器人,光刻机,仍有产业趋势叙事发酵空间。 反内卷是中期结构牛向全面牛转化的关键结构。继续提示,反内卷终局重点关注全球市占 ...
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/09/22-25/09/27):调整后,红十月
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-27 13:34
Core Viewpoints - The adjustment phase in A-shares is not expected to lead to a major downward risk in the medium term, with a high probability of a "red October" following the current adjustments, as long-term policy layouts are approaching and technological catalysts continue to persist [3][5][6] - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains uncertain, but it is not expected to affect the anticipated upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [3][5][6] - The narrative of a bull market is still valid, with the current phase characterized by increased allocation of equity by residents and improvements in cyclical fundamentals [3][5] Short-term Market Outlook - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, which may stabilize and elevate market expectations after the current adjustments [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts are expected to be limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, while technological industry catalysts are on an upward trend, particularly in AI, both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments are likely to improve short-term cost-effectiveness indicators, setting the stage for the "red October" market to unfold [6][7] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, technological industry catalysts are expected to dominate over cyclical catalysts, although there may be short-term cost-effectiveness issues in tech growth [7][8] - Spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including verification of demand-side dynamics and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak [7][8] - The long-term cost-effectiveness of the tech industry may reach low levels, similar to previous market conditions in late 2013 and late 2019, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase [7][8] Structural Outlook - The trend in tech growth is expected to remain dominant, with better performance in high-low switches within tech sectors compared to switches between growth and value [8][9] - New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with significant growth potential in sectors like overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [8][9] - The structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market is critical, with a focus on industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [8][9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the strengthening of new economic trends [9]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望:调整后,红十月
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-27 12:45
Core Viewpoints - The judgment that the small-level adjustment wave of A-shares has not ended is being validated, with no medium-term downside risk and the short-term adjustment not being of a large scale. After the adjustment, a "red October" is highly probable due to the approaching long-term policy layout period and ongoing technological catalysts, with short-term price-performance adjustments likely to be resolved soon [1][5][6] Market Adjustment and Outlook - The current market is undergoing a small-level adjustment since early September, with the core issue being the lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology structural bull market are limited, leading to market resistance in the upward movement as it digests price-performance issues [5][6] - The adjustment is unfolding, and it is emphasized that there will not be a large-scale adjustment in the short term. The core reason is that there is no real downside risk in the medium term. Economic improvement in the second half of 2025 and further policy efforts are expected to support the upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][5][6] Expectations for October - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment will be conducive to stabilizing and improving capital market expectations. Potential catalysts are being evaluated dynamically, with a focus on the demand side looking towards a new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026, while supply-side clearing is expected in mid-2026 [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts for Q4 2025 are relatively limited, but the technological industry continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI, which has not yet reached its boundaries. The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology industry, and the structural heat may re-energize in October [6][9] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, the technological industry is expected to have significantly more catalysts than cyclical ones, although there may be short-term price-performance issues in technology growth. The trend in technology growth may continue, eventually leading to a long-term low price-performance area [6][7] - Spring 2026 may represent a phase peak for the A-share market, facing challenges such as the arrival of a key verification period on the demand side and the potential delay in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak. New structural highlights may still need time to emerge, and the long-term price-performance of the technology industry may reach low levels [7][9] Structural Outlook - The trend in technology growth is expected to dominate, with better performance in high-low switches within technology than between growth and value. New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with mid-term market space remaining for technology sectors that have already accumulated certain gains [9][10] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is crucially linked to the anti-involution trend, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals. The mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, benefiting from the strengthening of "Trump's interest rate cut bullish options" and the fermentation of new economic industry trends [9][10]
“924”行情一周年,99%主动权益基金实现正收益,超800只产品成“翻倍基”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-25 14:32
2024年9月24日,A股市场在一揽子政策"组合拳"发布后,开启狂飙行情。近一年中,沪指经历震荡后 冲高,并创下近十年新高。一轮轮市场热潮中,主动权益类基金的赚钱效应凸显,近一年,99%主动权 益基金实现正收益,超800只产品成为"翻倍基"。与此同时,主要投向权益市场的股票ETF、跨境ETF规 模也迎来爆发式增长。有业内人士表示,公募基金在近一年不同阶段的牛市行情中都起到了引领及带动 上涨的作用,在推动中长期资金入市中发挥了重要作用。未来,市场赚钱示范效应吸引场外资金入市, A股有望从局部牛市转向全面牛市。 收益率排行前十的产品中,还有永赢先进制造智选混合A/C、华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开混 合以及信澳业绩驱动混合A,收益率均超过247%。 除业绩外,基金新发规模扩容同样印证着市场热度的持续升温。Wind数据显示,截至9月24日,近一 年,主动权益类基金发行总规模为1196.43亿元,较2023—2024年同期的768.9亿元同比增长55.6%。 产品业绩、发行规模双升 降准、降息、创设新工具支持资本市场,2024年9月24日的重磅政策"组合拳"令A股迎来了久违的历史 性大涨。彼时,国庆长假前最后一个 ...
A股,真正的牛市来了没有,说说我的看法
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 02:20
说说我的看法: 这篇策略的核心是觉得未来市场会出现全面牛市,就是所有的行业都会上涨,比如说保险、券商以及实物资产,我觉得这种难度比较大了,即便是未来出口 生态改变了,对中国经济来说,大多数行业都已经更新了,市场将制造业看成了是人工智能为代表的先进制造业,而传统的制造业是很难获得需求的兴趣。 国金证券对美联储降息的解读为"预防式"降息,这话怎么说呢?就是说这次降息有点被动,在通胀还没有回到2%的时候,美联储的政策目标转向了,已经 从之前的防通胀转向了保就业,这就是说为了防止就业持续下滑而采取的降息举措。 这对美国经济来说是促进增长,也会加大美股市场的流动性,对新兴的经济体来说,货币贬值的压力会缓解,另外随着美联储的降息,其他经济体也会有跟 随效应,这样货币的扩张空间就打开了。 对中国而言,因为我们是出口大国,所以随着预防式降息的开启,对我们外部的需求会增加,所以未来出口企业机会比较大。 所以,这家券商最终得出的结论是,A股真正的牛市还在孕育,并且还没有开始。 因为目前属于结构性的牛市,属于科技为代表的成长行情,但是市场大部分行业还没有完全表现,这主要还是基本面尚处于一个复苏的过程,而美联储的预 防式降息是开启改 ...
四季度展望:风格切换,逢低布局大盘蓝筹
Haitong Securities International· 2025-09-07 12:03
The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results related to quantitative analysis. The document primarily discusses macroeconomic trends, sectoral outlooks, and investment strategies without delving into quantitative methodologies. If you have another document or specific section that includes quantitative models or factors, please provide it for analysis.
申万宏源策略市场点评:“慢”演绎了,更要理解“牛”的纵深
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-04 12:53
Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent short-term adjustment in the A-share market is due to a combination of factors, including a rapid rise in the market since late June and the need for market expectations to be re-anchored, leading to a potential impulse adjustment [1] - Despite the short-term adjustments, the report maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that high-growth sectors will continue to increase over time, with significant improvements expected in the midstream manufacturing sector around mid-2026 [1] - The report anticipates that 2026 may witness the first effective rebound in profitability and double-digit growth in net profit for the past five years across the A-share market, driven by structural improvements in fundamentals [1] Market Trends - The report highlights that the channel for residents to increase equity allocation will become smoother over time, with public funds issued in 2020-21 nearing their net asset value [1] - Although the broad market indices are currently adjusting, nearly half of the stocks are still rising, indicating a maintained profit-making effect, which is beneficial for institutional net value returns [1] - The report suggests that the market's slowdown could lead to increased clues about economic recovery and enhanced market elasticity, forming a solid foundation for sustained market growth [1] Structural Selection - The report emphasizes that the potential mainline structures for future investments are domestic technological advancements and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to yield high returns, although key catalysts are still awaited [1] - Key economic indicators to watch in September and October include the ongoing demand for computing power and the progress of Tesla's Optimus product, as well as potential demand highlights in certain cyclical products [1] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market currently offers better value than the A-share market, reflecting a more optimistic economic trend with fewer bullish expectations [1]
鹏华养老产业股票:2025年上半年利润8499.96万元 净值增长率21.38%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 11:42
Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Penghua Pension Industry Stock (000854) reported a profit of 84.99 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.4241 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 21.38%, and the fund size reached 464 million yuan by the end of the reporting period [3][36]. Fund Performance - As of September 2, the fund's unit net value was 2.983 yuan. The fund manager, Jin Xiaofei, has managed six funds, all of which have shown positive returns over the past year. The highest growth rate among these funds was 112.81% for Penghua Medical Technology Stock A, while the lowest was 42.01% for Penghua Innovative Medicine Mixed A [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a three-month net value growth rate of 23.11% (ranked 66 out of 167), a six-month growth rate of 38.49% (ranked 14 out of 167), a one-year growth rate of 56.67% (ranked 49 out of 166), and a three-year growth rate of -2.20% (ranked 113 out of 160) [6]. Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately -1038.47 times, compared to the industry average of 23.39 times. The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 4.71 times, while the industry average was 2.44 times. The weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was 9.47 times, against an industry average of 2.1 times [13]. Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted average revenue growth rate was 0.11%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate was -0.83%. The weighted annualized return on equity was 0% [22]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.2327, ranking 133 out of 159 comparable funds. The maximum drawdown over the same period was 44.66%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 25.48% [30][32]. - The fund's average stock position over the past three years was 84.94%, compared to the industry average of 88.01% [35]. Fundholder Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had 56,200 holders, collectively holding 193 million shares. Management and staff held 133,800 shares (0.07%), institutional investors held 0.02%, and individual investors accounted for 99.98% of the holdings [40]. Trading Activity - The fund's turnover rate for the last six months was approximately 64.05%, which has consistently been below the industry average [43]. Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included companies such as Baijia Shenzhou, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Dize Pharmaceutical, Shouyao Holdings, Aosaikang, Ganli Pharmaceutical, Nuocheng Jianhua, Zhixiang Jintai, Bai'ao Tai, and Kexing Pharmaceutical [46].
9月开门红!今天,这个板块爆发
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-02 01:08
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a positive start in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.46% and 1.05% respectively, while the ChiNext Index and STAR Market 50 Index increased by 2.29% and 1.18% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 27.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Despite the positive market performance, 2,086 stocks declined, with a median increase of 0.51% for individual stocks [1] Index Performance - Among the nine major broad-based indices, the Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300 Index, ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50 Index, and CSI 500 Index reached new highs in the current market cycle [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 Index are close to reaching new highs, indicating potential upward momentum [1] Macro Environment - The current macroeconomic backdrop includes global liquidity easing, fiscal expansion in major countries, and a technological revolution in artificial intelligence, combined with a low domestic interest rate environment [2] - The one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1%, contributing to the bullish market sentiment [2] Structural Bull Market - The market is characterized by a structural bull market, with a focus on core sectors that are experiencing or about to experience industrial trends, such as the artificial intelligence industry chain, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [4] - Non-bank financials and financial technology sectors are also highlighted as areas of interest, particularly those benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] Key Stocks and Sectors - The AI hardware sector remains strong, with the communication equipment index rising by 4.59%, driven by high growth in AI infrastructure spending [5] - Nvidia's CEO projected global AI infrastructure spending to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion over the next five years, indicating robust growth potential [5] - The solid-state battery sector continues to perform well, with notable stocks like Guoxuan High-Tech and Hanke Technology seeing significant gains [7] Commodity Market - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen substantial price increases, with COMEX gold prices rising by 0.84% and COMEX silver prices increasing by 1.81% [7] - Industrial metals such as copper and zinc have also experienced price increases, with market participants advised to monitor the futures market for potential breakout signals [7] Future Outlook - The focus remains on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can reach new highs, which would signal the end of recent market fluctuations and a challenge to historical bull market peaks [10] - Investors are encouraged to concentrate on core stocks within leading sectors and avoid blind chasing of high prices [10]