宏观经济 | 专题报告 物价回升：这次不一样——"通往再平衡 之路"系列之三 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"力度超预期，收缩效应大于消费改善幅度的风险。 目 录 | 历史上的 PPI 回暖是如何传导的？ 4 | | --- | | 90 年代末的启示：CPI 的改善源于新一轮开放而非国企改革传导 4 | | 2009-2011：强刺激拉动内需，PPI 与 CPI 依然同步 6 | | 2015–2017：两个指标的脱钩开始出现，上游周期获得更强集中度 8 | | 2020–2021：上游涨终端弱，剪刀差历史最大 10 | | 通胀能传导到利润，但对居民收入影响有限 11 | | 2026 价格回升：更关注政策拉动下的需求改善 12 | | 财政重心向民生倾斜，同时存在一些政策推动的提价 12 | | "反内卷"追求以更优制度来影响价格 13 | | 风险提示 14 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S086051909 ...

Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a slight increase of 0.06%, with the latest price at 116.19 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 3.19% over the past year as of July 29, 2025 [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 309 billion yuan, with a bid amount and winning amount both at 309 billion yuan, maintaining an operation rate of 1.40% [1] - Huaxi Securities noted that the month-end liquidity easing is a favorable factor for the bond market, although the recent adjustments in the bond market are primarily driven by deteriorating sentiment rather than liquidity considerations [1] Group 2 - Recent significant adjustments in the bond market may present opportunities for contrarian trading, with concerns about rising industrial product prices potentially leading to an increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - The PPI is expected to return to around 0 by the end of this year, which may be challenging, referencing the supply-side reforms of 2015-16 where the average PPI for 2016 was 0.45% [2] - Since 2012, the transmission of PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) has weakened, and an independent rise in PPI could justify monetary easing measures such as rate cuts [2] - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) primarily invests in medium to long-term local government bonds, suitable for duration management and tactical allocation, offering relatively high yield potential with low credit risk [2]