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PPI增速超预期击退9月降息50基点押注 美债收益率全面回升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 01:23
新华财经北京8月15日电美国国债收益率周四(8月14日)普遍上涨超过5个基点,当天公布的美国7月 PPI环比增速创三年新高,令市场对美联储将于9月降息50个基点的预期全面消退。 美国劳工统计局周四公布数据显示,7月美国生产者价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.9%,涨幅创2022年6月 以来新高,远超市场预期的0.2%;7月PPI同比上涨 3.3%,也超过预期的2.5%。剔除能源和食品的7月核 心PPI环比增长0.9%,同比增长3.7%,同样远超市场预期的0.2%和2.9%。 数据公布后,市场通胀预期大幅升温,令交易员减少了对美联储将在9月降息的押注,美债收益率盘中 显著拉升。至尾盘时段,10年期美债收益率上涨5.23个基点,报4.2849%;2年期美债收益率涨5.79个基 点,报3.7324%。美国10年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)收益率涨3.21个基点,报1.8862%。 PPI报告显示,随着特朗普关税政策愈发清晰,尽管上半年需求相对走软,美国企业仍然积极调整商品 与服务的定价,以帮助抵消与更高美国关税相关联的成本效应。 Nationwide高级经济学家本·艾尔斯在一份报告中表示:"尽管企业迄今为止已承担了大部分 ...
建信期货股指日评-20250509
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 23:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic policies are implemented, market confidence in stabilizing the economy and the stock market is further strengthened, the index is relatively strong at the bottom, and long positions can be held. One can also try to sell put options to collect premiums. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations this weekend [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On May 8th, the Wind All A index rose with reduced volume, opening lower and then oscillating upwards, closing up 0.68%, with over 70% of stocks rising. Among index spot, CSI 300 and SSE 50 opened lower, then oscillated upwards and later declined, closing up 0.56% and 0.33% respectively; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 opened lower and oscillated upwards, closing up 0.41% and 0.76% respectively, with small and medium - cap stocks being stronger. In index futures, futures performed better than spot, with IF, IH, IC, and IM closing up 0.82%, 0.70%, 0.71%, and 1.07% respectively [6]. - In terms of sectors, the communication, national defense and military industry, and power equipment sectors led the gains, rising 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively; the beauty care, non - ferrous metals, and steel sectors led the losses, with declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [6]. 3.1.2后市展望 - Overseas, the Fed announced to keep interest rates unchanged and stated in the policy statement that tariffs are causing risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Domestically, on May 7th, relevant parties decided to agree to contact the US. Subsequently, the central bank launched a series of measures, including interest rate adjustments and liquidity support tools for specific directions, and continued to support the capital market with funds [8]. - With the implementation of policies, market confidence was significantly boosted, and the A - share market opened higher with a gap. Overall, as the Sino - US tariff stance tends to ease, risk - aversion sentiment cools down. After the annual report disclosure period, investors' risk appetite has increased. After the domestic policies are implemented, market confidence in stabilizing the economy and the stock market is further strengthened [9]. 3.2数据概览 - There are various data charts in this section, including the performance of domestic main indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All A, trading volume of index spot and futures, open interest of futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, statistics of main ETF fund shares and turnover, etc., but no specific data summaries are provided in the text [11][13][21][23]. 3.3行业要闻 - On May 8th, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the National Development and Reform Commission will focus on breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services to promote the implementation of relevant policies. It will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan in key areas [27]. - On May 8th, the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the US responded to questions about Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks, emphasizing that the talks are at the request of the US, China firmly opposes the US abuse of tariffs, and if the US wants to solve problems through dialogue, it should stop threatening and pressuring [27]. - The new issue of Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects the social financing growth rate to rebound significantly in April, with new loans likely to increase less year - on - year. The market also expects the CPI growth rate to decline and the PPI decline to continue to widen in April [28].