Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly its inflation dynamics and the impact of anti-involution measures on economic conditions [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPI and PPI Trends**: - July's **CPI** showed flat growth at **0%** year-on-year (YoY), down from **0.1%** in June, with food prices dropping **1.6%** YoY [1][4]. - **PPI** experienced a decline of **0.2%** month-on-month (MoM), maintaining an elevated YoY rate of **3.6%** [2][4]. - Consumer goods PPI fell **1.6%** YoY, while producer goods PPI dropped **4.3%** [2]. - **Contributing Factors**: - The decline in CPI was offset by increases in household facilities/services (+0.4% MoM), transportation and communication (+0.2%), and education and entertainment (+0.1%) [1][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as summer tourism and trade-in policy support, contributed to these increases [1][4]. - **Inflation Expectations**: - CPI inflation is expected to hover around **0%** in the coming months, with gradual narrowing of PPI deflation anticipated [4][6]. - **Anti-involution Measures**: - The government's anti-involution measures have led to a marginal narrowing in PPI deflation in affected sectors like coal and steel, but overall impact remains modest [5][6]. - The imbalance between domestic supply and demand persists, limiting significant inflationary pressure [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: - The report highlights that while trade-in subsidies have provided some support, they are insufficient to significantly alter the inflation landscape [6]. - Household appliance CPI inflation turned positive in June, reaching **2.8%** YoY in July, but PPI for these goods remained in deflation [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: - There is a cautious optimism regarding the government's ability to manage excess capacity and unemployment while implementing reforms [5][6]. - **Future Projections**: - The report anticipates only modest progress in reducing excess capacity and a gradual improvement in domestic inflation conditions [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese economy, inflation trends, and the implications of government policies.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - PPI deflation in China has deepened, with PPI inflation dropping to -3.6% year-on-year in June, marking the 33rd consecutive month of deflation [1][2] - The Chinese government is expected to implement incremental demand-side easing measures in the property market rather than large-scale stimulus, as long-term fundamentals do not support significant new apartment construction [4] - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases are anticipated to show solid performance, with Q2 real GDP growth forecasted at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 5.1% [8] Summary by Sections PPI and CPI Trends - PPI inflation decreased from -3.3% in May to -3.6% in June, while CPI inflation increased slightly from -0.1% to +0.1% year-on-year [1][2] Property Market Outlook - Recent property data indicates a decline in house prices and home sales, leading to speculation about government stimulus; however, the report suggests that any measures will be modest and focused on renovation rather than new construction [4] Economic Data Expectations - Key macroeconomic indicators, including trade, credit, and GDP data, are expected to be released soon, with forecasts for trade and industrial production above consensus, while credit and retail sales forecasts are below consensus [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook with expectations of persistent lowflation for CPI at 0.1% YoY and PPI deflation at -2.9% YoY for the second half of 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% YoY, supported by consumer subsidies, while food prices surged by 12% MoM SAAR due to adverse weather conditions [2][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains under pressure, declining by 3.6% YoY, primarily driven by weak final demand in sectors such as ferrous metals and cement, reflecting soft construction activities [3][6]. - The central government's guidance on anti-involution is expected to mitigate excessive competition, although implementation challenges persist [4][7]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - CPI showed a slight increase to 0.1% YoY in June 2025 from -0.1% in May 2025, with food and energy prices contributing to this rise [6][7]. - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to 0.7% YoY, indicating stable consumer price conditions [6]. PPI Analysis - PPI continued to decline, with a YoY decrease of 3.6% in June 2025, reflecting ongoing pressures from weak demand in construction and export-heavy sectors [3][6]. - Specific sectors such as mining and quarrying experienced significant declines, with PPI for this sector down by 13.2% YoY [6]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates ongoing lowflation for CPI and persistent PPI deflation in the latter half of 2025, influenced by slower export activities and a high base effect from the previous year [4][7]. - The implementation of government policies aimed at rebalancing the economy remains uncertain, posing challenges for future economic stability [4].

Investment Rating - The report revises down the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy from -2.1%/-0.6% yoy previously, indicating a bearish outlook on the industry [10]. Core Insights - China's headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at -0.1% yoy in May, with a decline in goods prices offset by higher services prices [1][3]. - Headline PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, down from -2.7% yoy in April, primarily due to falling commodity prices [1][9]. - The report indicates that the weak PPI data suggests more deflationary pressures on China's PPI inflation for 2025 and 2026 than previously anticipated [10]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI was -0.1% yoy, with a month-on-month increase of +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) [2][3]. - Food inflation decreased to -0.4% yoy in May, primarily due to lower prices of fresh vegetables, while pork prices rose by 3.1% yoy [4]. - Non-food CPI inflation was flat at 0% yoy, with fuel costs falling by 12.9% yoy [5][7]. PPI Analysis - Year-over-year PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, with deeper deflation mainly from price declines in upstream sectors like energy and metals [9]. - Month-over-month PPI inflation declined to -5.1% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in May [9]. - PPI inflation in producer goods fell to -4.0% yoy in May, while consumer goods edged up to -1.4% yoy [9]. Forecast Revisions - The report incorporates weak PPI data, leading to a downward revision of the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy [10].