Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; US crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][24] Summary by Sections Upstream - If geopolitical factors lead to a future oil premium, it will benefit upstream targets [2] Midstream (Refining) - An improvement in demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity will benefit midstream refining [2] Polyester Filament - Attention on the progress of PTA's internal competition and PX profit recovery; if successful, it will benefit polyester filament [2] Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, with increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] Polyester Market - The latest data shows stable prices for polyester filament, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6550, 7750, and 6800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton [15][21] Olefins Market - The sample PE price was 6920 CNY/ton, up 0.29% from last week, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from the previous week [26]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights that Xin Fengming is accelerating its global expansion by investing approximately $280 million in a functional fiber project in Egypt, maintaining a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Company Summary - Xin Fengming plans to invest around $280 million to establish a 360-acre functional fiber project in Egypt, which will have an annual production capacity of 360,000 tons of functional polyester fibers [1] - The project will include the construction of manufacturing plants for POY, FDY, and DTY, and will also involve leasing a dock at a nearby port for tank area construction [1] - The implementation of this project is expected to enhance the company's international influence and market competitiveness, helping to mitigate trade barriers and respond to adverse factors such as tariff wars and trade conflicts [1] Industry Summary - The PTA industry is currently facing significant losses, leading production companies to seek synergies [1] - The outlook for the PTA industry is optimistic, with expectations for a positive development phase ahead, potentially allowing products to turn from loss to profit [1]

Market Overview - On November 18, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation. The spot basis strengthened slightly, with limited offers from polyester factories. Transactions for November were reported at a discount of 70-72 for January contracts, with some lower at 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4580-4645 [1] - For December, transactions were noted at a discount of 65 for early December and 55-58 for late December, while November warehouse receipts were traded around 50 [1] Profitability - As of November 18, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 186 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 237 yuan/ton and 262 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of November 14, PTA operating rates were at 75.7%, a decrease of 0.7%. A 2.5 million ton PTA facility in East China was scheduled for maintenance for about a week, and another 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Ningbo was planned for maintenance on November 20 [3] - Demand: By November 14, several bottle chip and filament facilities were under maintenance, leading to a decrease in polyester operating rates to approximately 90.3%, down by 1%. On November 18, the price of polyester filament showed minor adjustments, with overall sales being weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India has led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, boosting exports of FDY fine denier yarn and resulting in price increases. Current factory inventories are low, and as the peak season comes to an end, short-term prices are expected to remain stable with limited downside [3] Market Outlook - This week, with two PTA facilities in East China undergoing maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply-demand balance for PTA in November is tight, but expectations for December and the first quarter of next year lean towards a more relaxed supply-demand situation, limiting upward pressure on the basis. Absolute prices are currently supported by demand for adjusted oil and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, although recent speculative trading in oil has cooled down, and the actual impact of the BIS certification cancellation on exports remains to be seen. Coupled with limited overall support from oil prices, the rebound potential for PTA remains constrained. The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the 4500-4800 range in the short term, with a rolling reverse spread approach [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is approaching a turning point with a strong demand for profit improvement as the effective capacity has increased significantly from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [5]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies holding approximately 75% of the market share, which facilitates a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition [5]. - The report highlights that the domestic PTA production capacity is expected to slow down, with only a 2.8% CAGR projected for the next three years, indicating a potential new cycle of prosperity for the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a downward trend in the operating rate of the PTA industry, which fell to 78% in August 2025 from 90% in 2019, reflecting a significant supply-demand imbalance [5]. Industry Structure - The report notes that the domestic PTA technology has undergone four iterations, leading to significant cost advantages for newer, larger-scale plants, which are expected to phase out older, smaller, and higher-cost capacities [5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and the expected stabilization of domestic and international demand for textiles, the PTA industry is likely to enter a new phase of growth [5]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Xin Fengming, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sanfangxiang [5].