开源证券研报指出，新凤鸣投建埃及长丝项目，全球化布局进一步提速，维持"买入"评级。公司拟投资 约2.8亿美元，建设"新凤鸣（埃及）36万吨/年功能性纤维项目"。该项目计划新增用地360亩，将建设 POY、FDY和DTY的制造工厂，实现年产36万吨功能性涤纶纤维，另外该项目将在附近港口租赁码 头，用于码头罐区建设。我们认为，该项目的实施，将有助于提升公司国际影响力和市场竞争力，规避 贸易壁垒及应对关税战、贸易战等不利因素，巩固公司全球高端、高品质化学纤维的代表性领军企业的 地位。当前PTA行业亏损严重，生产企业具备协同诉求。展望未来，该行坚定看好PTA反内卷，后续行 业迎来良性发展，产品也有望扭亏为盈。 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation. The spot basis strengthened slightly, with limited offers from polyester factories. Transactions for November were reported at a discount of 70-72 for January contracts, with some lower at 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4580-4645 [1] - For December, transactions were noted at a discount of 65 for early December and 55-58 for late December, while November warehouse receipts were traded around 50 [1] Profitability - As of November 18, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 186 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 237 yuan/ton and 262 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of November 14, PTA operating rates were at 75.7%, a decrease of 0.7%. A 2.5 million ton PTA facility in East China was scheduled for maintenance for about a week, and another 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Ningbo was planned for maintenance on November 20 [3] - Demand: By November 14, several bottle chip and filament facilities were under maintenance, leading to a decrease in polyester operating rates to approximately 90.3%, down by 1%. On November 18, the price of polyester filament showed minor adjustments, with overall sales being weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India has led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, boosting exports of FDY fine denier yarn and resulting in price increases. Current factory inventories are low, and as the peak season comes to an end, short-term prices are expected to remain stable with limited downside [3] Market Outlook - This week, with two PTA facilities in East China undergoing maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply-demand balance for PTA in November is tight, but expectations for December and the first quarter of next year lean towards a more relaxed supply-demand situation, limiting upward pressure on the basis. Absolute prices are currently supported by demand for adjusted oil and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, although recent speculative trading in oil has cooled down, and the actual impact of the BIS certification cancellation on exports remains to be seen. Coupled with limited overall support from oil prices, the rebound potential for PTA remains constrained. The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate within the 4500-4800 range in the short term, with a rolling reverse spread approach [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is approaching a turning point with a strong demand for profit improvement as the effective capacity has increased significantly from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [5]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies holding approximately 75% of the market share, which facilitates a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition [5]. - The report highlights that the domestic PTA production capacity is expected to slow down, with only a 2.8% CAGR projected for the next three years, indicating a potential new cycle of prosperity for the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a downward trend in the operating rate of the PTA industry, which fell to 78% in August 2025 from 90% in 2019, reflecting a significant supply-demand imbalance [5]. Industry Structure - The report notes that the domestic PTA technology has undergone four iterations, leading to significant cost advantages for newer, larger-scale plants, which are expected to phase out older, smaller, and higher-cost capacities [5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and the expected stabilization of domestic and international demand for textiles, the PTA industry is likely to enter a new phase of growth [5]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Xin Fengming, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sanfangxiang [5].