Workflow
PTA反内卷
icon
Search documents
PTA反内卷在即,行业拐点已渐进
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-29 08:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is approaching a turning point with a strong demand for profit improvement as the effective capacity has increased significantly from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [5]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies holding approximately 75% of the market share, which facilitates a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition [5]. - The report highlights that the domestic PTA production capacity is expected to slow down, with only a 2.8% CAGR projected for the next three years, indicating a potential new cycle of prosperity for the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a downward trend in the operating rate of the PTA industry, which fell to 78% in August 2025 from 90% in 2019, reflecting a significant supply-demand imbalance [5]. Industry Structure - The report notes that the domestic PTA technology has undergone four iterations, leading to significant cost advantages for newer, larger-scale plants, which are expected to phase out older, smaller, and higher-cost capacities [5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and the expected stabilization of domestic and international demand for textiles, the PTA industry is likely to enter a new phase of growth [5]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Xin Fengming, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sanfangxiang [5].