本周各家券商策略较为积极，后续行情的持续性与结构性机会是讨论的焦点。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | 华西策略 李立峰 | 沪指创近10年新高,增量资金来自 何方? | 本轮A股牛市行情从"924"演绎至今,增量 资金,在过去三年多来持续增持A股;二是融 迹象显现但仍处于早期阶段，资产荒下，居 | 聚焦新技术、新成长方向 (如国产算力 机器人、AI应用等）,辅之以部分大 全融、新消费(如IP经济、口含烟等) | | | | 资金来源广泛:一是险资、养老金等中长期 | | | | | 资资金和私募基金交易持续活跃,外资对A股 | | | | | 关注度也开始升温；三是居民"存款搬家" | | | | | 民资金有望通过ETF、直接持股、公募基金等 | 0 | | | | 渠道持续入市,成为"慢牛"得以延展的关 | | | | | 键动力。 | | | | | 从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在 主要的发起者和推动者并非散户;事实上本 | | | | | 轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产 | ...

沪指本周累计涨3.49%，深证成指累计涨4.57%，创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎 么说： ①中信证券：此轮行情并不是散户市 中信证券发文称，从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户；事实上 本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩；既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不 能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020~2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资 金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上，建议 继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种，9月消费电子 板块也值得关注。 ②光大证券：市场中长期仍然有望持续上行，或以"轮动补涨"特征为主 光大证券研报指出，展望未来，市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发 生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支。此外，还有一些新的积极因素正在出现，如美 联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看，市场中长期仍然有望持续上行。当前来 看，本轮行情或许会以"轮动补涨"特征为主， ...

长安汽车8月23日发布2025年中期利润分配预案公告，拟派送现金4.96亿元。 A股迎来一波"红包雨"。 多家A股公司在交出上半年"成绩单"的同时，拟送出中期"大红包"。截至发稿，8月22日以来，已有超百 家A股公司发布中期分红预案。其中，多家头部企业首次宣告中期分红。 多家公司首次发布中期分红方案 近期，多家上市公司首次宣告中期分红，其中不乏行业龙头企业。 中国中车8月22日披露2025年半年度利润分配方案公告，拟每10股派1.1元，拟合计派发现金红利31.57亿 元。 恒力石化8月23日披露2025年半年度利润分配方案公告，拟合计派发现金红利5.63亿元。 2025年上半年，东阿阿胶实现营业收入30.51亿元，同比增长11.02%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润达 到8.18亿元，同比增长10.74%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为7.88亿元，同比增 长12.58%。 中期分红力度可期 近年来，在包括新"国九条"在内的一系列政策引导下，提高投资者回报已经成为上市公司的必修课，上 市公司中期分红频次与金额不断提高。今年中期分红力度可期。 川财证券研究所所长陈雳表示，更多上市公司加入中期分红队伍 ...

昨夜（8月22日），多家A股公司在发布半年报的同时，拟向全体股东送出中期"大红包"。 其中，中国中车、恒力石化、长安汽车等多家头部企业首次宣告中期分红，最高分红金额超30亿元。 超60家公司拟中期分红 Choice数据显示，8月22日晚间，共有61家A股公司公布了2025年中期利润分配预案。 2023年中期和2024年中期，爱玛科技分别向全体股东派发现金红利3.00亿元、2.86亿元。 一向以"慷慨分红"著称的养元饮品，拟在2025年中期再次向投资者派发丰厚的现金"红包"。预案显示， 公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利5.00元（含税），合计派发现金红利6.30亿元，约占2025年上半 年归母净利润的84.71%。 据统计，自2017年上市以来，养元饮品已累计实施分红8次，分红总金额约158亿元。 值得一提的是，此次中期分红也是养元饮品上市以来首次进行中期分红，打破了以往仅在年度进行分红 的惯例。 多家头部企业首次宣告中期分红 除了养元饮品，记者统计发现，还有多家头部企业在8月22日晚首次宣告了中期分红。 其中，中国中车拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.1元（含税），合计拟派发现金红利31.57亿元，约 ...

Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.137 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 11.7% compared to the same period last year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.23% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin of the chemical fiber segment increased by 3.68 percentage points compared to last year [2] - The gross margin of the basic chemical products segment decreased by 11.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] Industry Insights - The current inventory level in the industry is approximately 50 days, while the company's inventory is around 20 days [3] - The ammonia fiber industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with smaller capacities exiting the market due to cost pressures and environmental policies [3] - The ammonia fiber industry is moving towards oligopoly and differentiation, with increased concentration among larger manufacturers [3] Customer Relations - The company has established strong trust and cooperation with downstream customers, leading to high customer stickiness [3] - The products are widely used in various sectors, enhancing customer reliance and long-term cooperation intentions [3] Strategic Developments - The company has terminated a previous asset restructuring project but plans to continue pushing for asset injection from two companies by December 2026 [3] - A strategic partnership with Eastman has been established to produce Naia™ acetate fibers in China, although the initial investment is small and will not significantly impact performance [4] - There are currently no new capacity expansion plans for the company's three main products [4] Future Outlook - The differentiated ammonia fiber production capacity is expected to gradually come online by the end of 2026 [4] - The domestic adipic acid market is maturing, with increased competition and a focus on quality, leading to further industry consolidation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Hailide New Materials Co., Ltd., is experiencing growth in its business segments, particularly in PEEK materials, marine equipment, and photovoltaic concepts, benefiting from the depreciation of the RMB and a strategic focus on international markets [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhejiang Hailide New Materials Co., Ltd. was established on May 21, 2001, and listed on January 23, 2008, with its main business involving the research, development, production, and sales of polyester industrial filament, advertising materials, and PVC films [6]. - The company's revenue composition includes polyester industrial filament (46.68%), tire cord fabric (22.04%), advertising materials (10.18%), and other segments [6]. - As of August 8, 2025, the number of shareholders is 38,000, with an average of 24,109 circulating shares per person [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.453 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million yuan, up 86.95% year-on-year [6]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.608 billion yuan, with 553 million yuan distributed over the past three years [7]. Group 3: Market Activity - On August 19, the company's stock rose by 0.46%, with a trading volume of 321 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.43%, leading to a total market capitalization of 7.578 billion yuan [1]. - The stock's average trading cost is 5.79 yuan, with a current price near a resistance level of 6.69 yuan, indicating potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is in the R&D phase for PEEK fibers and has successfully applied its seawater polyester industrial yarn in various marine applications, having passed ABS testing certification [2]. - In response to the rapid growth of the global photovoltaic industry, the company has strategically positioned itself in the photovoltaic reflective materials market, with its first order placed in June 2021 for a project in Oman [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 36.00 [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.201 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, but a net profit of RMB 269 million, which is a year-on-year decrease of 26.85%. The decline in net profit is attributed to increased R&D expenses, depreciation from the Baotou project, and intensified competition in the civilian fiber industry [1][2]. - The company expects future growth driven by large contract orders and contributions from the Baotou project, maintaining a positive outlook despite current pressures [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.201 billion, with a net profit of RMB 269 million, reflecting a decrease in net profit compared to the previous year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was RMB 635 million, down 1.40% year-on-year but up 12.42% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q2 was RMB 115 million, down 45.69% year-on-year and down 25.97% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Business Segments - The carbon fiber and fabric segment saw a revenue decline of 6.9% year-on-year to RMB 636 million, impacted by supply-demand imbalances and price declines [2]. - The carbon beam segment's revenue increased by 48% year-on-year to RMB 370 million, while the prepreg segment's revenue decreased by 5.2% year-on-year to RMB 110 million [2]. Contracts and Growth Potential - The company successfully signed a large contract worth RMB 3.664 billion in December 2024, with an execution rate of 16% for 2024. Additionally, a new procurement contract worth RMB 658 million was signed in June 2025 [3]. - The successful verification of new production lines for key carbon fiber products is expected to enhance the company's competitive strength and contribute to revenue growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to increased R&D expenses and competition, but the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 750 million, RMB 1 billion, and RMB 1.121 billion, respectively [4][9]. - The target price is set at RMB 36.00, based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous target price of RMB 35.02 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The industry is under pressure, and the company is waiting for downstream demand recovery [5] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% year-on-year [4][5] - The chemical fiber segment showed a gross margin increase of 3.68 percentage points despite a revenue decline [5] - Future growth is expected as the economy recovers and downstream demand is released, particularly with advancements in domestic technology [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.823 billion yuan, down 17.84% year-on-year and 7.78% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 479 million yuan, down 42.61% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue breakdown shows a decline in various segments: chemical fibers down 9.43%, new chemical materials down 8.82%, and basic chemical products down 15.01% [5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the chemical fiber segment was 18.65%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for basic chemical products was 4.37%, a decrease of 11.08 percentage points [5][6] - The financial expense ratio increased mainly due to a decrease in interest income [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.101 billion, 3.057 billion, and 3.588 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 12.6, and 10.7 [9] - The report anticipates that the integration of the polyurethane industry will lead to profit growth in the long term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the market and industry conditions [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 983 million yuan, down 35.2% year-on-year [3]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.8% [3]. - The net profit for Q2 was 479 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 42.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [3]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - The domestic market for spandex and adipic acid is experiencing a supply surplus, leading to a continued decline in industry prosperity [4]. - In Q2 2025, the price difference for domestic spandex was 10,625 yuan/ton, down 1,827 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the price difference for adipic acid was 2,859 yuan/ton, down 404 yuan/ton year-on-year [4]. - The price difference for shoe sole raw liquid was 6,707 yuan/ton, up 1,887 yuan/ton year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company is a global leader in spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw liquid, with significant production capacity [5]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company had a spandex capacity of 325,000 tons, adipic acid capacity of 1,355,000 tons, and polyurethane raw liquid capacity of 520,000 tons, with an additional 150,000 tons of spandex capacity under construction [5]. - The company is investing 8 billion yuan to expand its spandex production capacity, with a total investment of 28.4 billion yuan for a new 240,000 tons/year PTMEG facility, expected to be completed in three years [5]. - A 5.02 billion yuan investment is planned for a natural gas integration project, which includes 250,000 tons of BDO and 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, also with a three-year construction period [5]. - The company aims to enhance its integrated supply chain to strengthen its competitive position and improve profitability and risk resilience [5].

2025 年 8 月 17 日 公司研究 氨纶、己二酸景气下行，Q2 业绩承压下滑 ——华峰化学（002064.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 121 亿元，同比-11.7%；实现归母净利润 9.83 亿元，同比-35.2%。其中 Q2 单季度 实现营业收入 58 亿元，同比-17.8%，环比-7.8%；实现归母净利润 4.79 亿元， 同比-42.6%，环比-5%。 点评： 氨纶、己二酸景气下行，2025 年 Q2 业绩承压下滑。2025 年 Q2，国内氨纶价 差 10625 元/吨，同比-1827 元/吨，环比+235 元/吨；己二酸价差 2859 元/吨， 同比-404 元/吨，环比-53 元/吨；鞋底原液价差 6707 元/吨，同比+1887 元/吨， 环比+176 元/吨。2025 年 Q2，国内氨纶、己二酸依然呈现出供大于求的格局， 行业景气度持续下滑，致公司 2025 年 Q2 业绩同比大幅下滑。 氨纶产能持续扩张，持续完善产业链布局。公司作为氨纶、己二酸、聚氨酯原液 全球行业龙头，三大类产品产能均居全国第一、全球 ...