（文章来源：新华财经） 据卓创资讯分析师齐杰具体介绍，供应端看，周期内中化泉州45万吨／年装置因上游装置故障而提前停 车检修，使得供应端计划外减量。同时，在需求端，海外，特别是欧洲方向供应短缺提振国内苯乙烯出 口成交的消息，提振了市场情绪。 进一步，原料端上看，原油维持震荡走势；而纯苯方面，受美调油需求改善或导致韩国向美出口芳烃调 油料套利窗口开启，市场预期韩国出口至美国后，或使得到中国的纯苯供应减少，因此调油逻辑再次给 予芳烃产品偏强支撑。 后市来看，齐杰进一步称，美国的调油需求是因炼油端减量所致，而非需求强劲，故持续性存疑；而在 全球需求均处淡季背景下，苯乙烯强出口也难持续。此外，当前市场正处华东纸货交割周，因港口货源 偏集中，流动性有限，纸货空头的补货需求对苯乙烯现货端仍存支撑，因此，"预计短期苯乙烯价格或 维持偏强走势，待纸货交割结束后，价格或存下行风险。" 新华财经北京11月20日电本周苯乙烯价格出现修复性上涨。盘面上看，20日苯乙烯期货主力合约震荡走 高，盘中触及五周新高，且周线有望连续第二周收阳。现货市场上，截至11月19日，江苏市场苯乙烯收 盘均价在6560元／吨，较11月12日上涨255元／ ...

【现货方面】 11月18日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂递盘。个别主 流供应商出货。11月在01贴水70~72附近商谈成交，个别略低在01-75有成交，价格商谈区间在 4580~4645附近。12月上在01-65附近有成交，12月下在01-55~58有成交。11月仓单在01-50附近有成 交。主流现货基差在01-72。 【利润方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 需求：截至11月14日，有几套瓶片和长丝装置检修，聚酯负荷降至90.3%附近（-1%）。11月18日，涤 丝价格重心零星调整，产销整体偏弱。印度BIS认证限制逐步撤销，印度客户询价增加，FDY细旦丝外 销放量，价格上涨。目前工厂库存较低且位于旺季收尾阶段，短期价格依然易涨难跌。后期继 ...

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in crude oil prices has driven the upward movement of styrene, but pure benzene remains relatively weak. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene has slightly eased, and the market shows a structure of stronger near - term contracts and weaker far - term contracts. In the long - term, styrene prices may be dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene [1][4]. - For pure benzene, with the restart of previously shut - down units, supply will further increase in June, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state. Attention should be paid to whether the blending oil demand will bring marginal changes to the supply - demand pattern [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On June 11, the main styrene contract closed up 0.37% at 7349 yuan/ton, with a basis of 411 yuan/ton (+67 yuan/ton). The closing price of the main Brent crude oil contract was 65.0 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 66.9 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6040 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.1 million tons (+2.0 million tons), a 12.2% month - on - month increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 8.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 19.4% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance units are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to - late June, with an expected increase in supply. Currently, the weekly styrene output has increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 33.1 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 72.3% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products vary. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 46.4% (-12.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 64.0% (+1.70%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.2% (-2.6%) [2][3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by the restart of previously shut - down units, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene have continued to rise, driving an increase in supply - side output. Overall, the downstream demand for pure benzene is basically the same as last week, and the supply - demand gap has significantly narrowed within the week. In the future, as some maintenance units gradually resume operation, supply will further increase, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state in June [3]. - **Styrene**: On the supply side, the units are gradually resuming operation, and the current peak of styrene maintenance is basically over, with a steady increase in subsequent supply. On the demand side, the comprehensive demand for 3S products has significantly declined. As 3S enters the seasonal demand off - season, the demand support for styrene depends on the commissioning of several new PS and ABS units in the third quarter. The inventory in East China ports has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The spot market and the basis in late June continue to weaken under the expectation of increased supply, but there is still a certain price difference with late July [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices**: On June 11, the price of the styrene futures continuous contract increased by 0.04% to 7349 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7886 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 19.48% to 411 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 0.41% to 6040 yuan/ton, the price of pure benzene (South Korea FOB) increased by 0.28% to 724.5 dollars/ton, the price of pure benzene (US FOB) remained unchanged at 790.5 dollars/ton, and the price of pure benzene (China CFR) decreased by 0.13% to 742.5 dollars/ton [5]. - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: From May 30 to June 6, China's styrene output increased by 0.40% to 33.1 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 5.93% to 42.5 million tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 19.44% to 8.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 12.16% to 19.1 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 1.40% to 14.5 million tons [6]. - **Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 6, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 0.30% to 72.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 1.59% to 86.9%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 3.80% to 78.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.61% to 65.8%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 12.25% to 46.4%, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.70% to 64.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.60% to 59.2% [7]. III. Industry News - Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report to the leaders. - The Russian Ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon. - The US travel ban on citizens from 12 countries has come into effect [8]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM imported pure benzene costs vs. domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][15][18][19][21][24][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR rating: Neutral [4] Core View - On Wednesday, major polyester filament manufacturers increased production cuts, and the prices of the industrial chain fluctuated weakly. The market is currently focused on the Iran - US nuclear talks and the OPEC+ eight - country ministerial meeting on June 1st, with no news to guide the oil price, which is in a consolidation phase. The gasoline cracking has rebounded recently, but the seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The domestic and international intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. The supply of PX has recovered, but the spot market is still tight. The PTA price has rebounded, and some device overhauls have been postponed. The polyester demand is strong in the short term but may weaken in mid - to - late June [1][2][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report presents the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Information on the startup of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX is provided [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are given [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It contains data on filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [47][49][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Details on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and factory inventory available days are provided [71][80][84] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Information on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread is presented [92][94][102]