CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Nov. 6, 2025: Dow Falls After New Labor Market Data The data fuelled doubts about another interest-rate cut in December in the wake of last week's Federal Reserve meeting when Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded cautious about further policy easing. Topics Memberships Subscribe to Barron's Last Updated: 14 hours ago Dollar Eases After Reaching 5-Month High on Upbeat Data By Renae Dyer, Dow Jones Newswires The dollar was easing after reaching a five-month high against a basket of ...

Economic Growth - The Chinese economy grew at 4.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest annual pace in a year and aligning with analyst expectations, attributed to trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand [1][7] - This growth rate is a decline from 5.2% in the previous quarter, representing the weakest quarterly growth since Q3 2024 [1] Trade Tensions & Export Data - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's overall exports remained resilient, with global exports increasing by 8.3% in September, the fastest growth in six months, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year on year [2] Property Sector & Consumer Weakness - The ongoing property market crisis in China has negatively impacted consumption and domestic demand, with residential property sales dropping by 7.6% in value during the first nine months of the year compared to 2024 [3] Future Projections - S&P projects new home sales to decline by another 8% year over year in 2025 and by 6-7% in 2026, indicating continued weakness in the property sector [4] - The World Bank predicts China's economy will expand by 4.8% in 2025, while S&P Global economists forecast GDP growth to slip to 4% year on year in the second half of 2025 [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - To address the slowing economy, China may implement policy easing, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a 10-basis-point cut in the key rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [5][6] - The central bank's easing stance is seen as a response to deflationary pressures and the need to stimulate growth [6] Investment Opportunities - If rate cuts occur, high-growth tech stocks and ETFs such as KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) may benefit, along with iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) [8] - Despite subdued retail sales momentum, FXI and MCHI have advanced approximately 23% and 28% over the past six months, indicating potential for further growth with any policy stimulus [9]

Group 1 - The dollar fell to an 11-day low against a basket of currencies due to signals of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for continued policy easing, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's earlier comments [2] - The next Federal Reserve policy decision is scheduled for October 29, which could impact market expectations [2] Group 2 - The October Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey showed a sharper decline than anticipated, indicating potential economic weakness [2] - A significant drop in oil prices is contributing to the dollar's decline, as the U.S. is a major energy producer [2]

The Federal Reserve’s September 16–17, 2025 FOMC minutes indicated that real GDP growth slowed and the labor market softened in H1, while core PCE inflation remained elevated. Most participants considered modest policy easing appropriate and expected further rate cuts this year. Many noted persistent upside inflation risks alongside growing downside risks to employment. https://t.co/Ga8FsHGeWD ...

Employment Data Overview - Australian employment unexpectedly fell by 5,400 in August, contrasting with a revised increase of 26,500 in July, and significantly below market expectations of a 21,500 gain [2][3] - Full-time positions dropped by 40,900, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [2][3] Labor Market Indicators - Annual jobs growth has decreased to 1.5% from 3.5% in January, while hours worked dipped by 0.4% [3] - The jobless rate remained steady at 4.2%, which is low by historical standards, and the participation rate slightly decreased to 66.8% [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates this month, with a 75% probability of a cut in November [2][4] - The RBA has adopted a cautious approach to policy easing, having previously cut rates in February, May, and August [4] Economic Context - Leading indicators of labor demand remain solid, with job advertisements stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels [5] - Business surveys are generally positive, and consumer spending has increased recently due to lower borrowing costs and tax cuts [5] Job Cuts in Major Banks - ANZ plans to cut nearly 3,500 jobs over the next year as part of a restructuring effort, while National Australia Bank will reduce 410 jobs and relocate some positions overseas [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with further cuts anticipated, which supports risky assets like cryptocurrencies [2][1] - Bitcoin has reached a nearly four-week high as markets speculate on the Fed's potential policy easing [1][2] - The focus is on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assessment of the labor market slowdown versus inflation risks and economic projections uncertainty [2]

Market Trends - Thailand's stocks and currency may be further buoyed by inflows [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Thailand eased policy to bolster growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the China equity market, with a base case index target for MXCN at HK$80 for 2025, implying a 30% upside from current levels [17][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates a broad-based recovery in the MXCN/CSI300 indices, driven by national team buying and expectations of new policy easing, with a modest increase of 1.6% week-on-week [8]. - The report highlights a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, with improved macro data from China leading to a more favorable QMI reading [9]. - The investment strategy suggests a focus on high-yield sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising caution in Consumer Discretionary and Materials [10][36]. Market & Sector Performance - The report provides detailed sector performance metrics, showing Consumer Discretionary up 1.5% week-on-week but down 20.2% month-to-date, while Real Estate outperformed with a 3.0% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index showed a 1.5% increase over the week but a decline of 14.6% month-to-date [6]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic events in China, including LPR announcements and housing transaction data, which could influence market movements [13]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The report presents GDP growth forecasts for China, projecting 5.0% for Q1 2025, slightly revised from previous estimates [15]. QMI & Index Targets - The report sets specific index targets for MSCI-China and CSI-300, with the latter projected at 3,772 RMB for 2025, indicating a 10% upside potential [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a barbell strategy focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors, while advising a rotation into quality laggards [36][38]. - Specific sector recommendations include Overweight (OW) for Energy, IT, and Utilities, while downgrading Consumer Discretionary and Materials to Underweight (UW) [38].