This story was originally published on Food Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Food Dive newsletter. Mondelēz International is reducing chocolate in some new launches and debuting more premium options as the Milka and Toblerone maker continues to feel the impact of high cocoa prices, its top executive said. Mondelēz, the world’s second-largest player in the $147 billion global chocolate market, said that while cocoa spot prices have come down significantly from their rec ...

Core Viewpoint - Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) is expected to report a decline in both revenues and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenues projected at $999.7 million, a decrease of 3.4% year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 48 cents, reflecting a 15.8% drop from the previous year [1][2][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is $999.7 million, indicating a 3.4% decline from the prior year's actual [1]. - The consensus mark for earnings is set at 48 cents per share, which represents a decrease of 15.8% compared to the same period last year [2]. - Earnings estimates for the fiscal third quarter have remained unchanged over the past 30 days [2]. Group 2: Factors Impacting Performance - Brown-Forman is facing a challenging operating environment characterized by geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions, leading to softened consumer demand and reduced discretionary spending [3]. - The company has experienced lower volumes across its brands and regions, with notable declines in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and other key products [4]. - Higher input costs due to inflation, reduced production levels, and an unfavorable price mix are contributing to the company's challenges [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - Despite the challenges, Brown-Forman's premiumization strategy, pricing efforts, and global expansion initiatives are seen as positive factors that may support performance [6]. - The integration of super-premium brands like Gin Mare and Diplomatico is expected to enhance the company's portfolio and performance in emerging markets [7]. - The company's shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.56X, slightly below the industry average of 16.58X, indicating a premium valuation relative to industry benchmarks [10]. Group 4: Recent Market Performance - Over the past three months, Brown-Forman's shares have declined by 4.1%, contrasting with a 17.2% growth in the industry [11].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, once a stable blue chip stock, has seen its stock price drop approximately 37% this year, contrasting with a 12% rise in the S&P 500, raising questions about whether this decline presents a buying opportunity or signals further challenges ahead [1][12]. Revenue Sources - The majority of Constellation's revenue is derived from its beer business, with significant imports from Mexico, including brands like Corona and Modelo. Approximately 50% of beer sales are to Hispanic consumers, while the remaining revenue comes from smaller wine and spirits segments [3]. Major Challenges - **Declining Consumption**: Younger Millennial and Gen Z consumers are drinking less beer due to health trends, economic constraints, and changing social habits [4]. - **Economic Pressures on Consumers**: Many Hispanic consumers are cutting discretionary spending due to immigration issues and the impact of tariffs on various industries [5]. - **Tariff Impact**: The increase in tariffs on aluminum from 25% to 50% has negatively affected canned beer margins, as aluminum cans account for about 39% of beer shipments from Mexico [5]. - **Divestment Strategy**: Constellation is divesting cheaper wine and spirits brands to focus on higher-end products, which may enhance long-term gross margins but is currently hindering revenue growth [6]. Revenue Growth Trends - From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025, Constellation's revenue grew at a CAGR of 4%, primarily driven by its beer business, while wine and spirits segments continued to decline [8]. - Beer revenue growth rates were 8%, 11%, 11%, 9%, and 5% from FY 2021 to FY 2025, while wine and spirits experienced negative growth [9]. Guidance and Future Outlook - In September, Constellation revised its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic sales to decline by 4% to 6%, with beer sales projected to drop by 2% to 4%. Comparable EPS is anticipated to decrease by 16% to 18% [10][11]. - Analysts predict a decline in revenue and comparable EPS for fiscal 2026 by 11% and 17%, respectively, but expect a slight recovery in fiscal 2027 with revenue and EPS growth of 1% and 10% [12][13]. Market Sentiment - Despite the stock appearing cheap at 12 times next year's earnings, ongoing declines in sales and profits may hinder its ability to achieve a higher valuation [12]. - The CEO indicated that the challenging macroeconomic environment has dampened consumer demand, suggesting that the downturn may persist [11].

Core Insights - The financial results for the first half of 2025 show a slight improvement in net income, with a reduction in losses compared to the same period in 2024 [2][8] - The company aims to return to growth in the second half of 2025, supported by a strong harvest and strategic initiatives [13] Financial Performance - Consolidated turnover for H1 2025 was €109.3 million, a decrease of 0.2% compared to H1 2024 [3][7] - Recurring operating income fell to €13.8 million, down 8.0% from €15.1 million in H1 2024 [3] - Operating income decreased to €13.7 million, a decline of 7.2% from the previous year [3] - The financial result improved by €1.0 million, reaching -€15.3 million [3] - Net income improved by €0.5 million, resulting in a loss of -€1.4 million for H1 2025 [3][8] Commercial Activity - Sales remained stable in a slightly declining Champagne market, with a notable increase in international revenue, which accounted for 57% of total revenue [4] - Champagne Pommery saw a turnover increase of 4.7% due to new product offerings [4] Financial Structure - Shareholders' equity decreased to €396.5 million, representing 30% of the total balance sheet [9] - Net financial debt rose by €26.7 million to €756.2 million, reflecting seasonal sales patterns [9][10] Harvest and Outlook - The 2025 harvest is expected to exceed the yield of 9000 kg/ha, with exceptional quality anticipated [11] - The company is focused on debt reduction and has secured new financing to manage upcoming bond maturities [12] Strategic Developments - The company will adopt the name Maison Pommery & Associés in 2026 to align with its premiumization strategy [14] - Ongoing efforts in sustainable practices and environmental certifications are part of the company's long-term strategy [12]

Core Viewpoint - Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) is expected to report a decline in earnings per share by 9.8% year-over-year for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, despite a projected revenue increase of 4.2% to $911 million [1][2][8]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is $911 million, reflecting a 4.2% increase from the previous year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 37 cents, indicating a decrease of 9.8% from the prior year's reported figure [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates that Brown-Forman is unlikely to achieve an earnings beat, with an Earnings ESP of -3.62% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - The company benefits from a premiumization strategy and strong brand investments, particularly in its premium and super-premium brands [4]. - Brown-Forman is focusing on pricing strategy, global expansion, and revenue-growth management initiatives, which are expected to positively impact top-line results [5]. Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The company aims to optimize its wood supply-chain strategy and improve operating costs, with expected annualized savings of approximately $70-$80 million from strategic workforce initiatives [6]. - Management anticipates a modest reduction in SG&A expenses, which should support key marketing and innovation programs [6]. Market Challenges - Brown-Forman faces a challenging operating environment due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to softened consumer demand and discretionary spending [7]. - The company expects margin pressures from the decline in high-margin used barrel sales and the transition to new U.S. distributors [8][9]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Brown-Forman's shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 18.61X, higher than the industry average of 15.24X [10]. - Over the past three months, BF.B's shares have decreased by 7.9%, compared to a 5.5% decline in the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is expected to report strong 2Q25 results with revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 32% and 66% YoY, respectively, driven by solid smartphone performance, strong EV demand, robust IoT growth, and stable gross profit margins across all segments [1] Group 1: Smartphone Performance - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipment for 2Q25 is reported at 42.4 million units, remaining flat YoY, while its market share stands at 15%, ranking No.3 globally [2] - In China, Xiaomi's smartphone shipment grew by 3% YoY, outperforming the overall market which declined by 4% YoY [2] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase by 6% YoY in 2Q25 due to a higher mix of mid-to-low-end smartphone shipments [2] - Gross profit margin (GPM) for smartphones is estimated at 11.5%, impacted by BOM cost pressures and competition from Apple and Samsung [2] - Forecasted shipments for FY25-27E are 178 million, 190 million, and 200 million units, reflecting growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 5% YoY, respectively [2] Group 2: Smart EV Segment - The EV segment is expected to see strong demand with a backlog of orders and capacity ramp-up, estimating 81,000 shipments in 2Q25 with an ASP of RMB250,000, reflecting a 9% YoY increase [3] - For FY25E, the forecast for EV shipments is 396,000 units, exceeding the guidance of 350,000 units, supported by strong YU7 orders and rapid capacity growth [3] Group 3: IoT and Internet Services - IoT and Internet revenue is projected to grow by 36% and 10% YoY, reaching RMB36.4 billion and RMB9.1 billion in 2Q25E, driven by favorable China subsidies and seasonal demand [3] - The GPM for IoT and Internet is expected to slightly decline QoQ to 23% and 75% in 2Q25E, respectively, due to seasonality and product mix shifts [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a remarkable 46% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $59.4 million, marking the first quarter of year-over-year revenue growth since 2021 [6][20] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 36.2%, consistent with Q1 2025 but slightly down year-over-year due to a higher proportion of lower-margin entry-level products [21][22] - Adjusted operating loss narrowed to $4.9 million, an improvement of 42% compared to the previous year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Amazfit brand contributed all revenue, with strong demand for the Big Six and Active Two series, as well as the T Rex Three series [20] - The Balance Two smartwatch and Helios Stripe were introduced, with the latter receiving acclaim for its heart rate monitoring capabilities [9][10] - Entry-level products like the BIP Six and Active Two continued to see steady growth, supported by retail and Amazon partnerships [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., Amazfit ranked as the second most improved wearable brand year-over-year, with significant sales growth in the EMEA region, particularly in Germany, Italy, and France [19][15] - Sales surged by approximately 60% in the EMEA region during Amazon Prime Day compared to the previous year [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a multi-layered global marketing strategy leveraging partnerships with athletes and influencers to enhance brand recognition [12][14] - A commitment to expanding the premium product portfolio is evident, with plans for new product launches to capture additional market share [16][28] - The operational strategy includes diversifying manufacturing across China and Vietnam to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance resilience [12][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of product competitiveness and brand awareness [6][17] - The outlook for Q3 2025 anticipates revenue in the range of $72 million to $76 million, representing 70% to 79% year-over-year growth [28] - Management noted that the upcoming peak season for the industry will drive continued growth and value creation for stakeholders [17][28] Other Important Information - The company has cumulatively retired $8 million of debt since 2023, enhancing its capital structure [27] - Research and development expenses increased by 4.2% year-over-year to $10.3 million, reflecting investments in new technologies [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the recent spike in share price? - Management noted strong product reception and brand visibility, along with a value discovery journey in the market, leading to a revaluation of the company's stock [31][32] Question: How many more product launches are expected in the second half of the year? - Management indicated that there will be exciting new products in the pipeline for Q3 and Q4, matching or exceeding the previous year's launches [33][34] Question: What gross margin expectations are there for the full year? - Management expects gross margins to improve in the second half of the year, potentially reaching closer to 40% as new products are launched [35][36] Question: What percentage of imports to the U.S. comes from Vietnam, and what are the current tariffs? - Management stated that tariffs on products shipped from China to the U.S. are just below 25%, while those from Vietnam are close to zero due to tariff waivers [38] Question: What sales contribution is expected from the new Helios Stripe launch? - Management highlighted that the Helios Stripe has received positive customer feedback and carries a healthy gross margin, with expectations for strong sales performance [44][45] Question: What are the main drivers for the strong guidance for Q3? - Management cited strong performance from entry-level products, successful new product launches, and seasonal trends as key drivers for anticipated growth in Q3 [53][56]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with earnings estimated at $3.34 per share, reflecting a 6.4% decrease year-over-year, and revenues projected at $2.6 billion, indicating a 3.5% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is $3.34, down 6.4% from the same quarter last year, with a 1.5% downward revision in the past week [2] - Revenue expectations are set at $2.6 billion, which is a 3.5% decline compared to the prior-year quarter [2] - The company experienced a negative earnings surprise of 15.4% in the last reported quarter, but has historically beaten estimates by an average of 5.2% over the last four quarters [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Constellation Brands, with an Earnings ESP of -1.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] Segment Performance Insights - The beer segment is expected to show resilience, benefiting from cost-saving measures and efficiency initiatives, with growth driven by brands like Modelo Especial and Corona Extra [4] - The wine and spirits segment returned to growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with expected sales growth supported by increased shipment volumes and a favorable product mix [5] - Premiumization strategies and capacity expansion in Mexico are contributing positively to the beer segment's performance [6] Market Environment and Challenges - The company faces inflationary pressures, including higher packaging and raw material costs, which are impacting margins [7] - The operating environment is challenging due to cautious consumer spending and potential tariff changes, which may further affect profitability [8] Valuation Perspective - Constellation Brands is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.38X, which is below its five-year high of 23.57X and the industry average of 15.27X, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [9][10] - The stock has declined by 37.1% over the past year, compared to an 8.8% decline in the industry [11]

Summary of Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd - **Industry**: Consumer (Beer) - **Market Cap**: Rmb87,933.7 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: HK$50.00 - **Current Price**: HK$55.00 - **52-Week Range**: HK$67.00 - HK$40.00 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$238 million [5][10] Key Financial Results - **2024 Core Sales**: Rmb31.6 billion, down 5% year-over-year (yoy) [8] - **Net Profit**: Rmb4.3 billion, up 2% yoy [8] - **Sales Volume**: 7.5 million KL, down 6% yoy, compared to industry decline of 1% [8] - **Gross Margin**: Expanded by 1.4 percentage points to 32.7% [4] - **Operating Margin**: Increased by 1 percentage point to 14.2% [8] - **Dividend Payout**: Rmb2.2 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% [8] Volume and Market Performance - **Main Brand Volume**: Dropped 4.8% yoy to 4.34 million KL in 2024; medium- to high-end volume down 3% to 3.15 million KL [3] - **4Q24 Volume Recovery**: Tsingtao brand volume up 7.4% yoy, other brands up 2.1% yoy; industry production volume up 9.8% yoy [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Flattish yoy in 2024, with volume growth of 5.6% and ASP growth of 1.7% in 4Q24 [8] Cost and Expense Management - **SG&A Ratio**: Increased by 0.4 percentage points in 2024; S&D expense ratio up 0.5 percentage points [4] - **Net Cash Position**: Rmb20.0 billion at the end of 2024, down from Rmb21.2 billion in 2023 [4] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Tsingtao holds a 21.4% market share, with a slight decline of 1.1% yoy [10] - **Comparison with Competitors**: Tsingtao's sales and volume performance compared to CRB and Budweiser APAC, with Tsingtao's sales down 5.5% yoy [10] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Successful premiumization strategy, favorable weather conditions, and better-than-expected cost control efficiencies [13] - **Downside Risks**: Increased competition leading to market share loss, slow capacity closure plans, and rising raw material prices [13] Conclusion - Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd has shown resilience with a slight increase in net profit and recovery in volume towards the end of 2024. However, challenges remain in maintaining market share and managing costs effectively in a competitive landscape. The company's strategic focus on premiumization and cost efficiencies will be crucial for future growth.