CS Venkatakrishnan, the boss of Barclays, warned Rachel Reeves against ‘milking the financial sector’ - Bess Adler/Bloomberg The boss of Barclays has urged Rachel Reeves not to tax economic growth “out of existence” amid fears the Chancellor will raise levies in November’s Budget. In particular, CS Venkatakrishnan warned the Chancellor against “milking the financial sector” by introducing a new tax on banks. In an interview with CNBC, he said: “It stifles competition, stifles growth. You need to encoura ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes that America's $37.5 trillion national debt poses a significant crisis risk, with a growing gap between spending and revenue raising concerns about long-term sustainability [1][2]. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt is projected to incur an additional $1.13 trillion in interest payments for the fiscal year 2025 [1]. - Economists are more concerned about the debt-to-GDP ratio rather than the absolute amount of national debt, as borrowing that outpaces economic growth can lead to investor skepticism regarding the security of debt returns [2]. Government Spending and Economic Growth - Dalio argues that the U.S. government cannot realistically cut spending due to various reasons, indicating that spending cuts are not a viable option [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that U.S. spending will reach approximately $7 trillion in 2025, while revenues will only be around $5 trillion, leading to a widening gap over time [5]. Market Dynamics - Dalio points out a supply-demand imbalance in the market for U.S. debt, suggesting that there is insufficient global demand for this debt, which could exacerbate the crisis [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America’s mortgage-backed securities research team is analyzing the potential for U.S. mortgage rates to decrease, influenced by Federal Reserve actions and macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. Mortgage Rate Projections - The MBS team believes a path to a 5% mortgage rate exists if the Federal Reserve implements quantitative easing in mortgage-backed securities and aggressive yield-curve control, reducing 10-year Treasury yields to 3.00%-3.25% [2]. - The baseline expectation is for mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.25%, a slight decline from the current average of approximately 6.35%, which has improved from 6.9% recently [3]. Market Reactions and Affordability - Despite Wall Street's optimism regarding potential rate cuts, even a reduction to 5% may not significantly alleviate the affordability challenges faced by American homebuyers [4]. - Housing stocks have seen a rise in anticipation of rate cuts, with companies like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup being highlighted; however, the underlying demand remains sluggish despite lower rates and builder incentives [6]. Economic Scenarios - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a spike in unemployment leading to a flight to safety in financial markets, which could lower mortgage rates, or a severe recession prompting the Fed to cut rates and possibly resume purchasing mortgage-backed securities [5].

Market Overview - The current market is characterized by a split, with gold prices rising, bonds declining, and stocks fluctuating as new sectors emerge to replace technology [1] - The end of a historic yield-curve inversion and a potential Federal Reserve cutting cycle are significant for investors, particularly in precious metals and bonds [1][2] Gold and Bonds - Traditional bond benchmarks may not provide the safety that investors expect, while gold is experiencing a breakout due to renewed deflation risks [2] - Central bank gold buying and ETF flows are important factors for investors to consider when balancing inflation and deflation in their portfolios [2] Dollar and Inflation - The purchasing power of the dollar has decreased by nearly 50% over the past 25 years, while gold has increased by over 1,052% in the same period [4][5] - The dollar's decline is attributed to expansive monetary policies and rising national debt, which has grown from $5.6 trillion in 2000 to over $36.2 trillion in 2025 [8][9] Primerica Inc. (PRI) Performance - Primerica provides term life insurance and has shown strong historical performance, with earnings per share (EPS) growing at a compound annual rate of 15.6% over the past decade [10] - As of June 30, Primerica insured over 5.5 million lives and had approximately three million client investment accounts, with total adjusted operating revenue increasing by 7.4% year-over-year to $796 million [11] - The company's adjusted EPS of $5.46 grew 10.3% compared to the previous year, exceeding analyst consensus by $0.26 [12] - Primerica is expected to grow EPS at about 10% annually over the next five years, driven by sales force expansion and share repurchases [13]

We’ve seen the harshest Fed quantitative tightening in Bitcoin’s history.Yet the price still rallied from $15K to $124K.Now imagine what happens once quantitative easing begins. https://t.co/xUkAg54V3T ...

The more things change, the more things stay the same. And that is a reoccurring theme, especially over these four-year cycles. Now, me personally, I still believe the four-year cycles are intact.There may be a little slight disturbance about what's going on, but I still do think we're headed in the same direction. I'm going to tell you why. So, if you're not familiar with this concept, uh these are the four-year cycles.Everything pretty much kicks off with a havinging, which happened the first time in 2012 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war and tariffs have significantly disrupted various sectors, including the bond markets, adversely affecting mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) like AGNC Investment, which has faced a challenging operating environment recently [1] Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC Investment primarily holds a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) backed by government-sponsored agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are generally considered virtually risk-free from default [3] - The company has a current dividend yield of 17%, making it an attractive option for investors [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - AGNC's tangible net book value (TBV) per share fell from $8.41 at the end of 2024 to $8.25 in the first quarter of 2025, and further declined to between $7.75 and $7.85 as of April 9, 2025, with an additional drop of 7.5% to 8% noted during the earnings call [6][7] - The decline in TBV is attributed more to the widening spread between Treasuries and mortgages rather than an increase in interest rates, with the spread peaking at 230 basis points [6][7] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Management believes that the current wide spreads between Treasuries and mortgages are not likely to persist for long, presenting a compelling return opportunity for the company [8] - Favorable bank capital requirements are expected to increase demand for agency MBSes, which could help lower spreads and improve market conditions [9] - The potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is not seen as a significant concern by management, as they expect the government to maintain a supportive role in the mortgage market [10] Group 4: Investment Considerations - If the current wide spread between Treasuries and mortgages is temporary, it may present a good buying opportunity for AGNC stock, as the company could make attractive investments and its portfolio may recover when spreads normalize [12] - While there are elevated risks in the current environment, including the potential privatization of GSEs, investors may consider cautiously entering AGNC stock [13]