以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 你要是能预测特朗普，那你本事可不小。 " 这是斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒（ Stan Druckenmiller ）在 2019 年一场小型闭门交流中半开玩笑地说的一句话。 话音落地，台下笑声一片。 而坐在他身边对话主持人正是斯科特 · 贝森特（ Scott Bessent ），六年后的今天，他是特朗普 2.0 政府 的财政部长，超级核心成员。 贝森特对德鲁肯米勒的认可是毫不掩饰的。 他在去年的一场访谈中就公开表示，"索罗斯做过最伟大的投资，就是发现了斯坦·德鲁肯米勒"。他还说， 多年来，两人保持着每周通话的习惯，彼此信任、互为镜鉴。 等贝森特出去转悠一圈回归索罗斯基金，则担任了 5 年首席投资官。 得说，两人之间的默契和交情，确实在这场对话中展露无遗。 这场谈话进行于 2019 年 6 月，也是研究斯坦·德鲁肯米勒不容错过的视频资料之一。 有意思的是，当时的话题跟当下十分相似，集中在时任总统第一任期的特朗普，他的关税政策，以及美联储 的措施等等。 一开场的问题就拉回到德鲁肯米勒最擅长的领域，即货币政策，毕竟按照他自己的说法， " ...

NOMURA Richard Koo Reasons for rise in long-term rates in Japan, US, and Europe; China's balance sheet recession Long-term interest rates have risen or remained elevated in many nations over the past few weeks, with the conspicuous exception of China. This has led some analysts to question the fiscal sustainability of these economies. n certain countries, including Japan, long-term rates have reached their highest levels in over a decade, shocking market participants accustomed to ultra-low rates. However, ...

LISA: -- THE OUTLOOK FOR CREDIT INVESTING MORE BROADLY. YOU TALKED ABOUT HOW THE U.S. IS GOING TO GO BANKRUPT AND IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE FISCAL PATH. DO WE SEE THAT PRICED IN OR IS THERE STILL A RECKONING TO COME.JEFFREY: IT'S CERTAINLY BEHAVING DIFFERENTLY THAN IT WAS FOR THE LAST FOUR DECADES. WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS IN THE LAST 15 YEARS THERE'S BEEN A NUMBER OF CORRECTIONS ON THE S&P 500 AND EVERY ONE OF THEM, THE S&P WAS DOWN MORE THAN 10%, THE DOLLAR INDEX, THE TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX GOES UP. THIS TIME ...

Day在最新研判中指出，黄金市场正迎来多重基本面支撑：全球央行购金步伐持续加速，地缘政治不确 定性推升避险需求，同时主要经济体财政可持续性担忧不断发酵。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）本周 将2024年全球经济增长预期大幅下调至1.6%，直指美国贸易保护主义政策对全球贸易体系的冲击。该 预期修正直接导致美元指数承压，为金价连续第三周上涨奠定基础。 国际贵金属市场持续走强，现货黄金价格稳守2350美元/盎司关口，白银价格突破34美元/盎司，创2012 年以来新高。知名投资管理人Adrian Day近日警示，当前市场对矿业企业的估值存在显著偏差，且全球 金融体系正面临潜在流动性危机，这或将迫使美联储于三季度重启量化宽松政策。 值得关注的是，Day提出美国财政部或将在三季度面临资金枯竭风险。他分析认为，当财政融资压力突 破临界点时，美联储将被迫通过扩大资产负债表提供流动性支持。"相较于单纯降息，重启量化宽松的 概率显著更高，市场关注焦点已从就业市场转向政府偿债能力。"这一判断与此前主流预期存在明显分 歧。 在资产配置层面，Day强调矿业板块存在显著价值洼地。以Agnico Eagle Mines为例，尽管当前利润率处 ...

Contango Ore (CTGO) Update / Briefing May 08, 2025 01:00 PM ET Speaker0 Good evening, depending on where in the world you're signing in from. Certainly, a lot of time zones on today's call, so I do appreciate you joining us. I'm on the TangoWorks talk about the recent publishing of the technical report summary on the Johnson Track project with some pretty attractive economics. So I've got on today, CEO, Rick Van Nuneheiser and CFO, Mike Clark, gentlemen. How are you today? Speaker1 Doing well. Romeo, I'm in ...

新华财经北京4月28日电 债市周一（4月28日）延续暖势，国债期货主力合约多数上涨，银行间现券收 益率震荡回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放1030亿元，月末前流动性基本无虞，资金利率普遍延续下 行。 机构认为，随着基本面走弱和货币渐趋宽松，收益率后续尚存在向下突破可能。从投资策略来看，中长 端久期仍有保持的机会、长债依然占优，长端收益率有望创新低。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍小幅下行，10年期国开债"25国开05"收益率下行0.5BP至1.709%，10年期 国债"25附息国债04"收益率下行0.85BP至1.649%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.54%，报419.91点，成交金额482.30亿元。其中，普利转债、飞凯转债、华翔 转债、京源转债、银轮转债跌幅居前，分别跌18.13%、10.18%、6.97%、6.92%、5.86%。华医转债、博 瑞转债、易瑞转债、阿拉转债、天源转债涨幅居前，分别涨2.72%、2.39%、1.86%、1.54%、1.43%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间4月25日，美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌5.94BPs报3.7377%，3年 期美债收益率跌7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war and tariffs have significantly disrupted various sectors, including the bond markets, adversely affecting mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) like AGNC Investment, which has faced a challenging operating environment recently [1] Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC Investment primarily holds a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) backed by government-sponsored agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are generally considered virtually risk-free from default [3] - The company has a current dividend yield of 17%, making it an attractive option for investors [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - AGNC's tangible net book value (TBV) per share fell from $8.41 at the end of 2024 to $8.25 in the first quarter of 2025, and further declined to between $7.75 and $7.85 as of April 9, 2025, with an additional drop of 7.5% to 8% noted during the earnings call [6][7] - The decline in TBV is attributed more to the widening spread between Treasuries and mortgages rather than an increase in interest rates, with the spread peaking at 230 basis points [6][7] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Management believes that the current wide spreads between Treasuries and mortgages are not likely to persist for long, presenting a compelling return opportunity for the company [8] - Favorable bank capital requirements are expected to increase demand for agency MBSes, which could help lower spreads and improve market conditions [9] - The potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is not seen as a significant concern by management, as they expect the government to maintain a supportive role in the mortgage market [10] Group 4: Investment Considerations - If the current wide spread between Treasuries and mortgages is temporary, it may present a good buying opportunity for AGNC stock, as the company could make attractive investments and its portfolio may recover when spreads normalize [12] - While there are elevated risks in the current environment, including the potential privatization of GSEs, investors may consider cautiously entering AGNC stock [13]