Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the worst period for the real estate industry is gradually passing, with positive signals emerging from the market and policy support in place for recovery [1][4] - According to CITIC Securities, 58 out of 78 listed real estate companies reported losses, with total net losses estimated between 206.04 billion and 239.75 billion yuan for 2025, while the net loss for 2024 was 161.4 billion yuan [1][2] - The average decline in new and second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities is 12.6% and 21.3% respectively from their peak, indicating a significant market adjustment [2][4] Group 2 - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that the fundamental bottom of the real estate market is approaching, with new construction down 75% since the peak in 2021, exceeding declines in the US, Japan, and Germany [4][6] - The pressure from inventory impairment for mainstream real estate companies is gradually being released, with cumulative asset and credit impairment losses reaching 8% of average inventory from 2019 to the first half of 2025 [4][6] - The central government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy shifts indicating a more proactive approach to support the sector [5][6] Group 3 - The cash flow situation for households remains healthy, which supports the potential for continued recovery in corporate operating cash flow [3] - The shift in financing from credit bonds to project financing, such as REITs and property operation loans, is helping to resolve the mismatch between assets and liabilities for companies [3] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to enhance the efficiency of issuance and accelerate the securitization of quality assets, benefiting the overall real estate sector [2][3]

中信证券：房地产市场呈现了一些积极信号 2026年初，A股及AH主流上市房企密集披露2025年业绩预告，引发市场关注。在这个关键时刻，中信 证券、申万宏源等头部机构同步发声，认为房地产行业最差时期已逐步过去，政策托底发力叠加行业基 本面调整到位，优质房企有望率先迎来盈利修复，行业将逐步企稳回升。 申万宏源发布研报表示，过去4年房地产行业量价持续下行，导致目前部分房企预告业绩下降或亏损。 不过我们认为，房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去。 研报解释，一方面，我们认为我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近，在行业深度调整4年多后，我国新开 工自2021年高点以来已下降75%，已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%—70%，我国二手房房价自 2021年高点以来已下降40%，也已显著超过1970年至今42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，申万宏源认为主 流房企存货减值压力逐步得到释放2019-2025H1主流房企累计资产及信用减值损失占比存货均值达8%， 其中部分房企减值占比更高。 中央强调着力稳定房地产，《求是》发文建议政策一次性给足，政策基调更趋积极。2025年12月，中央 经济工作会议指出："积极稳妥化解重点领域风险，着力稳定房地产市 ...

【导读】中信、申万等头部券商最新发声：房地产市场现积极信号！ 申万宏源：房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去 申万宏源发布研报表示，过去4年房地产行业量价持续下行，导致目前部分房企预告业绩下降或亏损。 不过我们认为，房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去。 研报解释，一方面，我们认为我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近，在行业深度调整4年多后，我国新开 工自2021年高点以来已下降75%，已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%—70%，我国二手房房价自 2021年高点以来已下降40%，也已显著超过1970年至今42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，申万宏源认为主 流房企存货减值压力逐步得到释放2019-2025H1主流房企累计资产及信用减值损失占比存货均值达8%， 其中部分房企减值占比更高。 中央强调着力稳定房地产，《求是》发文建议政策一次性给足，政策基调更趋积极。2025年12月，中央 经济工作会议指出："积极稳妥化解重点领域风险，着力稳定房地产市场"。此外，2026年1月2日，《求 是》明确房地产金融属性、强调居民资产负债表、重申房地产经济重要地位、并建议政策一次性给足， 对房地产行业政策表态更趋积极，政策进一步重视居民端和需求端发力。1月 ...