一线城市新房价格环比跌幅显著收窄，12月房价持平的城市数量增多，市场正从恐慌性调整转向买卖双方的微妙平衡。 "房企认为房价已接近底部，购房者也认为现在具有性价比。"最近，一份来自清华大学五道口金融学院的研究报告显示，超四成受访机构对宏观经济与不动 产行业的预期有所改善 今年初中央经济工作会议的表述，从去年的"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场" 这微妙的措辞变化背后，是全国房地产市场正在发生的深刻转变。根据最新数据，2025年12月全国70个城市新房价格指数环比降幅出现微弱收窄，一线城市 更是成为引领市场企稳的关键力量 最新数据显示，2025年12月全国70个城市新建商品住宅价格指数环比下降0.4%，同比下降3.0% 尽管房价仍在调整通道，但一线城市的表现成为市场亮点。12月份，一线城市新房价格环比跌幅已收窄至0.3%，这一改善幅度明显优于二线城市的0.4%和 三线城市的0.4% 市场分化特征明显，12月份全国仅有6个城市房价环比上涨。其中包括上海、长春、吉林、宜昌、韶关和三亚 值得注意的是，12月份房价环比持平的城市数量有所增加 这种变化反映了当前市场的深度博弈特征。房企认为房价已经接 ...

证券研究报告 重申全年看好港资房企，关注港资商业 运营商 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：节后楼市走向仍为板块短期走势关键。本周申万地产板块微涨0.01%，当前市场对后续板块看法及楼市走向仍存分歧。部分投 资者认为在缺乏超预期政策支持背景下，楼市企稳仍存在不确定性，但同时又担心踏空板块上涨行情。我们认为在大盘波动加大、二手 房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放等背景下，短期板块向下风险有限，对楼市企稳存担忧但又担心踏空的投资者，我们认为可适 度配置历史包袱较轻、拿地及产品力强的优质房企，若后续楼市逐步企稳回升，优质房企资金及拿地能力强亦有望率先受益，若楼市持 续底部震荡，相关企业亦具备基本面支撑。 重申全年看好港资房企，关注港资商业运营商。本周新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业上涨1.11%、2.76%、2.8%。重申全年看好港资房 企，我们在1月发布专题报告《香港商业地产逐步触底，标杆商业开发运营商梳理》，我们认为中国香港商业地产现触底信号，核心区写 字楼租金、空置率边际改善，零售物业租金降幅收窄， ...

政策层面的持续发力，是本轮市场情绪改善的重要基础。近期各地在稳楼市方面的表态更加明确，因城施策力度不断加大，核心城市在购房限制、信贷支 持、存量房消化等方面的政策工具逐步丰富。这些举措虽然难以在短期内迅速拉动销售大幅反弹，但对于稳定市场预期、改善房企现金流具有重要意义。尤 其是在融资端，房地产企业外部环境较此前明显改善，市场对系统性风险的担忧明显下降。和众汇富认为，政策目标已从单纯压降风险，转向在防风险基础 上推动行业平稳运行。 港股房地产板块的同步走强，也为市场提供了重要参照。相比A股，港股地产股此前调整幅度更深，估值长期处于历史低位。近期在全球风险偏好回暖及内 地房地产政策预期改善的共同推动下，港股地产板块出现集中反弹。这一变化不仅反映国际资金对中国房地产市场的预期边际改善，也体现出市场对行业长 期价值的重新评估。和众汇富研究发现，部分具备资产质量和现金流优势的房企，已开始获得中长期资金的关注。 值得注意的是，本轮反弹并不意味着行业已经进入全面复苏阶段。从供需结构看，房地产市场仍面临明显分化。一线及部分强二线城市，因人口吸引力和产 业支撑较强，需求韧性相对突出，而部分三四线城市仍受到库存和人口流出等因素制 ...

【导读】中信、申万等头部券商最新发声：房地产市场现积极信号！ 申万宏源：房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去 申万宏源发布研报表示，过去4年房地产行业量价持续下行，导致目前部分房企预告业绩下降或亏损。 不过我们认为，房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去。 研报解释，一方面，我们认为我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近，在行业深度调整4年多后，我国新开 工自2021年高点以来已下降75%，已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%—70%，我国二手房房价自 2021年高点以来已下降40%，也已显著超过1970年至今42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，申万宏源认为主 流房企存货减值压力逐步得到释放2019-2025H1主流房企累计资产及信用减值损失占比存货均值达8%， 其中部分房企减值占比更高。 中央强调着力稳定房地产，《求是》发文建议政策一次性给足，政策基调更趋积极。2025年12月，中央 经济工作会议指出："积极稳妥化解重点领域风险，着力稳定房地产市场"。此外，2026年1月2日，《求 是》明确房地产金融属性、强调居民资产负债表、重申房地产经济重要地位、并建议政策一次性给足， 对房地产行业政策表态更趋积极，政策进一步重视居民端和需求端发力。1月 ...

房地产在2025年供需仍在盘整、下行，但降幅有减缓趋势。近期《求是》接连发表"着力稳定房地产市 场"，显示政策面对于房地产止跌回稳，对症下药，加速房地产市场回稳，做出了有序安排。 根据华泰证券对于2025年梳理，认为在新房层面，"好信用、好城市、好产品"的"三好"地产股依然表现 坚轫，依靠运营能力在市场调整中掌握现金流生命线的房企，有商业现金流的支撑，仍然稳健，此外， 受益于稳健现金流、具备分红优势的物管企业，也发展良性。 新房市场：降幅收窄，改善需求成核心引擎 2025年全国商品房销售面积达8.8亿平方米，同比下滑9%，降幅较2024年收窄4个百分点；销售金额为 8.4万亿元，同比下滑13%，降幅收窄5个百分点，销售均价同比下降4.3%，降幅亦收窄0.5个百分点。市 场整体仍处调整通道，但下行压力显著缓释。城市能级分化持续，一线、二线、三线城市销售套数同比 分别下降11%、20%、10%，其中三线城市降幅收窄达18.3个百分点，成为全年最显著亮点。改善型需 求持续主导市场，120–144平方米户型成交占比突破30%，较2024年提升1个百分点，较2016年累计提升 11个百分点；144–200平方米大户型占 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the housing market in first-tier cities is showing signs of stabilization, with Shanghai being the only city experiencing a month-on-month price increase in December 2025 [1] - In December, six cities reported a month-on-month increase in new home prices, with Shanghai and Changchun leading at 0.2% [1] - First-tier cities saw a narrowing decline in both new and second-hand housing prices, with new homes decreasing by 0.3% and second-hand homes by 0.9%, indicating a potential positive shift in the market [1] Group 2 - In contrast, second-tier and third-tier cities continue to face pressure, with new home prices declining by 0.4% month-on-month [2] - Second-hand home prices in second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 0.7%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [3] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 7% drop in second-hand home prices, with Beijing seeing the largest decline at 8.5% [3][4] Group 3 - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 8.2788 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year, with residential investment down by 16.3% [5] - The total sales area of new commercial housing was 8.8101 trillion square meters, down 8.7%, while residential sales area fell by 9.2% [5] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing increased to 7.6632 trillion square meters, up 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a growing supply in the market [5] Group 4 - The data from December suggests a strengthening signal in the first-tier market, particularly in Shanghai, which is the only city to achieve both year-on-year and month-on-month price increases [5] - The trend of "price for volume" in the second-hand housing market continues, reflecting landlords' ongoing adjustments to pricing [5] - Recent policy measures, including lower loan rates and tax incentives, have reduced the threshold for home purchases, leading to increased buyer engagement and a shift from passive browsing to active inquiries [6]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Stabilization Logic - The current real estate market in China is characterized by a decline in both volume and price, with new home sales down 55.8% since the peak in June 2021, while second-hand home sales have increased by over 70% [3][15] - In 2025, total sales are expected to reach 1.34 billion square meters, a 32% decline from the peak of 1.95 billion square meters, with second-hand home sales accounting for over 46% [3][15] - Prices in 70 major cities have dropped by 13% for new homes and 20% for second-hand homes, with some indices showing a decline of 37% for second-hand home prices [3][15] Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - The issue in the real estate market is increasing visible inventory, with a residential vacancy rate of approximately 18.8% in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities face declining demand and significant inventory challenges [4][16] - The transformation of potential demand into effective demand is hindered by high housing prices, which affect both rigid and improved demand, relying on payment capacity [4][16] - The price-to-income ratio is approximately 6 times nationally, but remains high in tier-one cities, indicating a need for price adjustments to facilitate demand conversion [4][16] Group 3: Rental Market and Policy Implications - The rental yield across 100 cities is low at 2.36%, with major cities like Shenzhen at around 1.3%, suggesting significant room for improvement in rental yields [5][17] - The policy goal set for the end of 2024 is to stabilize the real estate market, but it remains unclear whether this refers to transaction volume or price stabilization [5][17] - A stable rental market is deemed essential for the overall stabilization of the real estate market, with the expectation that rental prices must stabilize before any significant price recovery can occur [5][17] Group 4: Renminbi Exchange Rate Appreciation Trend - Since late 2025, the Renminbi has shown signs of appreciation, driven by a significant current account surplus and a financial account deficit, indicating that the exchange rate is primarily market-driven [8][19] - The appreciation trend is influenced by the changing interest rate differential between China and the US, with the US entering a rate-cutting cycle, which has contributed to the Renminbi's strengthening [9][20] - Long-term trends suggest that the Renminbi's appreciation is inevitable, as it reflects China's economic development and transition towards a higher income status [11][22] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Relations - The Renminbi's exchange rate should be assessed against a basket of currencies rather than solely against the US dollar, as this provides a more comprehensive view of export competitiveness [10][21] - The potential for increased trade tensions due to the Renminbi's depreciation against the euro highlights the need for a balanced approach to currency valuation in the context of international trade relations [10][21] - The ongoing shift towards de-globalization may lead to a fundamental restructuring of global economic dynamics, impacting both the US and China, and necessitating a careful consideration of currency policies [12][23]

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2225.97 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策" 稳预期》 - 2025.12.09 房地产行业报告 （2025.12.29-2026.1.4） 发布时间：2026-01-06 行业投资评级 2026 年地产市场企稳值得期待 ⚫ 投资要点 根据中指院数据，2025 年 TOP100 房企权益销售总额约 25209 亿 元，24 年全年约为 30887 亿元，百强房企 25 年权益销售总 ...

Core Insights - The policy environment for the real estate sector in 2025 has been relatively subdued, with expectations for a more aggressive policy approach in 2026 to stabilize the market [5] - The central economic work conference in December outlined a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing measures such as targeted policies, inventory reduction, and encouraging the construction of quality housing [5][18] - Key policy measures anticipated for 2026 include interest rate cuts, mortgage subsidies, and reforms to the housing provident fund system to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [5][20][21] Market Overview - In 2025, new home sales continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10% to 80.77 million square meters as of December 6, reflecting a significant drop of approximately 54% compared to the same period in 2021 [11] - The price index for new homes in 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6% in October 2025, marking a continuous reduction in price for 12 months [11] - The second-hand housing market has seen a price decline of nearly 38% since 2021 in major cities, with transaction volumes showing slight growth in recent years [16] 2026 Industry Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to face continued downward pressure, with projected declines in sales area and amount of 8% and 9% respectively, alongside new construction and completion area declines of 12% and 15% [17][27] - The anticipated policy measures are expected to alleviate some of the downward pressure on prices and sales, with a focus on targeted interventions [5][18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers, commercial real estate operations, and real estate brokerage platforms as potential investment opportunities [47] - High-quality developers are characterized by low historical burdens, strategic repositioning in core cities, and sufficient impairment provisions [48] - Commercial real estate, particularly shopping centers, is expected to maintain stable growth despite economic slowdowns, while brokerage platforms are positioned to benefit from market recovery and policy implementation [48]

Core Insights - The steady growth of fiscal revenue, supported by economic recovery, provides a solid financial guarantee for high-quality development [1] Fiscal Revenue Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Central government revenue was 88,464 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while local government revenue was 112,052 billion yuan, increasing by 2.2% [1] - Tax revenue was the main driver of fiscal revenue growth, totaling 164,814 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, accounting for 82.2% of the general public budget revenue [1] Tax Revenue Performance - The domestic value-added tax, as the largest tax source, generated 63,629 billion yuan in the first 11 months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [2] - The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3%, with notable growth in the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sectors at 12.3% and 10.3% respectively [2] - Stamp duty revenue surged by 27% to 4,044 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 70.7%, indicating heightened activity in the capital market [2] Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure reached 92,124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [3] - General public budget expenditure totaled 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3] - Central government expenditure grew by 1.9 times, while local government expenditure increased by 6.6%, highlighting the government's role in driving investment [3] Focus on Key Areas - Expenditure in key areas such as education, social security, and technology received priority, with education spending at 37,856 billion yuan (up 4.4%), social security and employment at 40,721 billion yuan (up 8.1%), and science and technology at 8,892 billion yuan (up 7.9%) [3] - The fiscal revenue and expenditure trends reflect a stable economic operation and the effectiveness of fiscal policies in supporting high-quality development [3]