证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2225.97 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策" 稳预期》 - 2025.12.09 房地产行业报告 （2025.12.29-2026.1.4） 发布时间：2026-01-06 行业投资评级 2026 年地产市场企稳值得期待 ⚫ 投资要点 根据中指院数据，2025 年 TOP100 房企权益销售总额约 25209 亿 元，24 年全年约为 30887 亿元，百强房企 25 年权益销售总 ...

日期：2025年12月19日 核心观点： ➢ 25年政策力度整体平淡，26年可能迎来政策组合拳。自去年9.24至今，已经持续五个季度没有出现强刺激的地产政策。我们理解主要是因为 今年的出口较为强劲，全年的经济增长任务完成情况较好，地产端的宽松政策可能延后。在此背景下，今年下半年以来房价，尤其是二手房 价加速下行，亟需等待政策托底。 而就在近期举行的12月中央经济工作会议，明确了对26年房地产工作的要求是"着力稳定房地产市场"；并提出房 地产政策方向，包括因城 施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收储、深化公积金制度改革、推动"好房子"建设；此外，在货币政策工具方面，提到"灵活高效运用 降准降息"。 26年政策重点关注：1）降息、房贷贴息。其本质是降低购房者实际利率，收敛与净租金回报率的差距以重塑房价的底部支撑，阻断下行螺旋。 26年降息预期提升，但"灵活高效运用"也可能预示下降空间较为有限；房贷贴息的关键则在于幅度与周期长度。2）深化公积金改革。在商 贷收缩的情况下，公积金作为另一重要购房资金渠道，若能更在使用用途、资金管理等方面突破，并更大范围推广，公积金池剩余资金或可 撬动房地产市场加速企稳回升。3）核心城市 ...

中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 在经济回升向好态势支撑下，财政收入的稳步增长为高质量发展提供坚实财力保障。 和税收收入同比增长形成对比的是，2025年1—11月，非税收入35702亿元，同比下降3.7%。"临近年 底，非税收入同比下降主要受部分行政事业性收费规范调整影响，总体看，税收和非税收入一升一降说 明财政收入结构不断优化，未来发展也更趋健康可持续。"中国政法大学财税法研究中心主任施正文 说。 在税收收入项目中，主要税种表现呈现结构性亮点。国内增值税作为第一大税种，2025年前11个月收入 为63629亿元，同比增长3.9%。 《中国经营报》记者从国家税务总局获悉，今年以来，在减税降费等相关政策有力推动下，我国制造业 高质量发展态势良好。发票数据显示，1—11月，装备制造业销售收入同比增长8.3%，特别是计算机通 信设备制造业、仪器仪表制造业销售收入同比分别增长12.3%和10.3%，反映了制造业高端化加速推 进，也印证了实体经济复苏动能增强。 今年以来，财政支出保持适度增长，聚焦重点领域，保障民生与发展。1—11月全国一般公共预算支出 248538亿元，同比增长1.4%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets showed mixed trends on November 18, 2025. Major stock indices in the US declined, while some commodities like CBOT soybeans and domestic metals such as gold and silver had positive movements. In the macro - economic aspect, various events including diplomatic responses, financial dialogues, and policy - related decisions influenced market sentiment. Different sectors in the commodities market had their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the A - share market continued its high - level adjustment [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On November 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped to 46590.24, a decrease of 1.182% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index fell to 22708.07, down 0.841%; the S&P 500 decreased to 6672.41, a decline of 0.916%; and the Hang Seng Index dropped to 26384.28, down 0.708% [2]. - **Other Macro Indicators**: SHIBOR overnight increased to 1.51, up 10.638%; the dollar index slightly decreased to 99.53, down 0.004%; the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.10 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold decreased to 4045.10, down 0.962%; COMEX silver dropped to 50.05, down 0.694%; LME copper decreased to 10766.50, down 0.733%. In the domestic market, gold increased to 931.24, up 0.192%; silver rose to 11983.00, up 0.419%; copper decreased to 86320.00, down 0.150% [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Diplomatic and International Relations**: China has and will continue to lodge solemn representations and strong protests against Japan's Prime Minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. During the G20 Summit, there is no arrangement for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders. China and Germany held the fourth high - level financial and economic dialogue, and both sides welcomed cross - listing of depositary receipts [7]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased [7][8]. - **Industrial Policies**: China will conduct a final review of anti - dumping and counter - vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US. The real estate market is showing a trend of being dominated by second - hand housing transactions and gradually stabilizing [8]. - **International Monetary Policy**: The Fed's vice - chairperson believes that the downward risk of employment has increased, and the upward risk of inflation may have slightly decreased recently. A Fed governor advocates another interest rate cut in December [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On November 17, peanut futures closed at 7958 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.20%. Short - term trading can be long at low prices near the 7900 - yuan support level, but beware of price drops due to increased supply [11]. - **Sugar**: On November 17, sugar futures closed at 5458 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The supply - side pressure is obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Corn**: On November 17, the corn main contract closed at 2182 yuan/ton, flat. The market lacks a strong driver, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of other agricultural products such as eggs, cotton, etc. also showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on supply - demand fundamentals [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Pay attention to the support at the annual low [13]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to run in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with coking coal in the 1100 - 1300 yuan range and coke in the 1600 - 1800 yuan range [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The supply - demand is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 5450 - 5350 yuan support. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [13][15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market macro - sentiment has cooled, and copper and aluminum are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro - risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [15]. - **Steel Products**: The steel prices have rebounded at a low level, but the upward height is limited. The pressure on rebar is around 3150 yuan, and that on hot - rolled coils is around 3350 yuan [15]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: They mainly follow the macro and black - series fluctuations. The alloy's own supply - demand drive is not strong [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term strong pattern continues. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and beware of downstream procurement caution and import pressure [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market continues its high - level adjustment. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, reduce positions, and use options to sell straddle strategies [16][17].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with second-hand housing transactions becoming dominant due to various policy adjustments and incentives [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Local governments have been continuously optimizing real estate policies, including the implementation of home purchase subsidies and housing consumption vouchers [1][2] - Over 60 cities have introduced policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, such as purchase subsidies and "old-for-new" exchange programs [2] Market Trends - From January to October, the area of second-hand housing transactions increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand homes accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [1] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes has remained stable, indicating the effectiveness of various measures to stabilize the market [2] Land Supply and Urban Development - Cities are controlling land supply and optimizing land allocation to enhance urban development, with examples including Shenzhen and Hangzhou [3] - The transition from new home sales to second-hand home transactions reflects a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development [3] Consumer Preferences - In the current market, second-hand homes are favored due to their better locations, established amenities, and immediate occupancy advantages, particularly among young people and new residents [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is stabilizing with a dominant trend in second-hand housing transactions, driven by various policy adjustments and incentives [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Various cities have implemented measures such as home purchase subsidies and optimized housing credit policies to support housing demand [2] - Over 60 cities have introduced policies aimed at supporting rigid and improved housing needs, including "old-for-new" exchange policies [2] - The national housing fund policies have been adjusted in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to facilitate home purchases [2] Market Performance - From January to October, the net signed area for second-hand housing transactions increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand homes accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [1] - The total sales area and sales volume of new residential properties have shown a narrowing decline compared to the previous year, indicating a gradual recovery [2] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased for eight consecutive months, reflecting steady progress in destocking [2] City-Level Insights - Cities such as Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Xiamen have reported year-on-year growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions [3] - Cities with over 10% year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transaction area include Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chongqing [3] Market Transition - The real estate market is transitioning from a focus on new housing to a dominance of second-hand housing transactions, reflecting a shift in urbanization and housing demand [3] - The emphasis on the living attributes of homes is becoming increasingly important, particularly for younger and migrant populations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with second-hand housing transactions becoming dominant due to various policy adjustments and incentives [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Various cities have implemented measures such as purchasing subsidies, housing consumption vouchers, and optimized land supply to support the real estate market [1][2] - Over 60 cities have introduced policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, including adjustments to housing credit policies [2][3] Market Trends - From January to October, the transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand houses accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [1] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has remained stable, indicating the effectiveness of local policies [2] Land Supply - Cities are controlling new land supply while optimizing existing land use, with examples including Shenzhen and Hangzhou focusing on quality residential land [3] - Cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan have seen significant year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions [3] Shift in Market Dynamics - The real estate market is transitioning from a focus on new housing to second-hand housing as urbanization stabilizes [3] - The demand for second-hand housing is driven by young people and new residents, who prefer properties that are well-located and ready for immediate occupancy [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][66] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing pressure in real estate sales and anticipates policy support in the future [3][12] - The Central Committee's recent announcements focus on promoting high-quality development in real estate and addressing market fragmentation [3][12] - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate investment and sales, with a 13.9% year-on-year drop in development investment and a 5.5% decrease in new housing sales area from January to September [3][12] - The report suggests that the construction materials sector may benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in demand as monetary policies ease [5][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes that the real estate market is expected to stabilize due to anticipated policy measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions [3][5] - It identifies four key factors that could support the market: easing monetary policy, demand-side policy measures, sensitivity to policy changes, and supply-side reforms [3][12] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 342.1 RMB/ton, showing a 0.5% decrease from the previous week and a 15.3% decline year-on-year [4][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1184.3 RMB/ton, reflecting a 4.9% decrease from the previous week and a 3.9% year-on-year decline [4][21] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 3.94%, with the construction materials index up by 1.6% [4][53] - Sub-sectors such as fiberglass manufacturing and pipe manufacturing showed significant gains, while cement manufacturing experienced a slight decline [4][53] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued companies with long-term growth potential, and leading cyclical construction material firms [5][12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index testing the 3900-point support level, while the Shenzhen Component Index consolidated around 13000 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index fluctuated around 1400 points, with stable market turnover [1] Oil and Gas Industry - The oil and petrochemical industry chain saw a strong performance, with oil service engineering leading the gains, and the sector index opened significantly higher, reaching a nearly 3% increase, marking a new high for the year [2] - The successful drilling of the "super project" deep well in Sichuan, which surpassed the 10,000-meter mark, set a new record for deep well exploration in the Sichuan oil and gas field [4] - The Tarim Oilfield's successful drilling of the 502-H3 well at a depth of 8380 meters marks a significant advancement in deep oil and gas extraction, with the completion of 223 ultra-deep wells during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - China Oilfield Services announced a contract with Qatar Energy for a project worth approximately $4 billion (about 28.5 billion RMB), expected to positively impact the company's operating performance [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation's subsidiary signed a contract for a seawater pipeline project in Iraq worth $2.524 billion (approximately 18.03 billion RMB) [5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks rose against the market trend, with the sector index initially surging nearly 2%, and several companies, including Yingxin Development and Zhuhai Mian Group, hitting the daily limit [6] - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices reported by the National Bureau of Statistics for September [8] - Yingxin Development announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Changxing Semiconductor, indicating a strategic shift towards technology and enhancing competitiveness [8] - Zhuhai Mian Group plans to transfer its 100% stake in Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd., accelerating its focus on the duty-free business and consumer sectors [9]