外地国企加码投资广州土地市场，是对广州信心的印证。 进入传统的"金九银十"，广州土地市场开始活跃。 9月2日上午，厦门国贸（600755）地产以5.06亿元底价成功竞得广州荔湾区一宗地块，成交楼面价约 2.15万元/平方米，是今年9月广州首宗成交的住宅用地。这是一宗小型地块，宗地面积仅9007.07平方 米，出让宗地面积7840.89平方米，计容建筑面积约2.35万平方米，容积率为3。 这宗地块成交的亮点体现在，广州土地市场出现了今年的又一个"新"面孔。今年以来，广州出让的住宅 用地多由城投系公司、本地国企以及深耕广州的央企拿下，厦门国贸地产作为外地国企加码投资广州土 地市场，也是对广州信心的印证。 9月以来，广州土地市场也在加快推地的步伐。9月1日，广州市海珠区广州大道南788号二期地块正式挂 牌；9月3日，广州白云新城也有多宗地块发布出让公告。多宗优质地块来袭，广州土地市场翘盼丰收。 国贸地产近年来在广州择机投资。 2023年5月，厦门国贸在经过18轮报价后，通过摇号竞得白云区嘉禾望岗东北侧的一宗地块，成交价 24.82亿元，溢价率15%，折合楼面价2.47万元/平方米。这宗地块就是后来的国贸云上项目，目 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greentown China anticipates a slowdown in land acquisition in the second half of the year, with a target land value of between 120 billion to 130 billion yuan for the year, while sales for 2025 are expected to remain comparable to the previous year [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Greentown achieved total contract sales of approximately 122.2 billion yuan, ranking second nationally; revenue was about 53.368 billion yuan, with a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 210 million yuan [1] - The company added 35 new projects with a total construction area of about 3.55 million square meters, expected to have a saleable value of approximately 90.7 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the company's bank deposits and cash amounted to approximately 66.795 billion yuan, which is 2.9 times the balance of short-term borrowings due within one year, marking a historical high [1] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company plans to adopt a more cautious and precise strategy for land acquisition in the second half of the year, focusing on high-quality land parcels that have scarcity and development potential [2][3] - The land acquisition pace will be slowed due to the significant amount of land acquired in the first half of the year, with a dynamic adjustment of the annual land value target based on sales and cash flow conditions [2] Market Outlook - The high-end residential market is expected to maintain its heat due to previously suppressed demand and the recent supply of quality low-density and core land [3] - The company foresees a potential local recovery in the real estate market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a gradual stabilization expected in the overall market [4] - The recovery process is anticipated to be uneven, with first-tier and core second-tier cities likely to stabilize first, while non-core second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities may take longer to recover [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Phoenix Property Investment Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by the delivery of key real estate projects, despite a challenging market environment [2][5][11]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company achieved an operating income of approximately 291 million yuan, a 200.78% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - The total profit reached approximately 17.48 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of over 12 million yuan in the previous year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 11.04 million yuan, compared to a loss of over 12 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The company's total assets were approximately 7.28 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 1.92% from the end of the previous year [2]. Industry and Main Business Situation - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a focus on high-quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives [3]. - National real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in housing supply [3]. - The company primarily engages in real estate development and sales, focusing on residential and commercial properties in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces [3]. Project Development and Sales - The Nanjing Zijin and Xufu projects have been successfully delivered, contributing significantly to the company's revenue [5][11]. - The company has ongoing projects with substantial remaining saleable areas, indicating potential for future revenue generation [6]. Financial Performance Analysis - The operating costs increased to approximately 242 million yuan, reflecting the higher volume of project deliveries [10]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was approximately 62.67 million yuan, a decrease of 31.15% compared to the previous year, primarily due to reduced cash inflows from pre-sold properties [10]. - The company maintained a low debt ratio compared to peers, supported by a borrowing limit of 3 billion yuan from its controlling shareholder [9]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from being a state-controlled entity, receiving strong support from its parent group in financing and operational strategies [9]. - The brand recognition of its real estate projects has been enhanced, particularly in the Jiangsu region, contributing to its competitive positioning [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to 5% compared to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies in China achieved a sales turnover of 211.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1]. - The overall real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization from January to July 2025, with the cumulative sales turnover for the top 100 companies reaching 211.6 billion yuan [1]. - The sales threshold for the top 20 real estate companies has slightly decreased, with varying sales scale changes among different tiers of companies [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales turnover for the top 100 real estate companies in July 2025 was 211.6 billion yuan, down 24.3% year-on-year and 37.7% month-on-month [1]. - The cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to July 2025 was 211.6 billion yuan, indicating a continued trend of stabilization in the market [1]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that new home transaction volumes in August may continue to fluctuate at low levels, with increasing differentiation between cities and projects [4]. - Core first and second-tier cities may experience a temporary decline in market activity due to a lack of quality supply and previous demand surges, unless favorable policies are introduced [4]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Wuhan, and Nanjing, may see a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new housing regulations and products [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is stabilizing, with effective measures implemented by various regions and departments in accordance with central government policies [1] Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun stated that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization after a period of decline [1] - Measures tailored to local conditions have shown significant results in promoting market recovery [1] - Overall, the real estate sector is making progress towards halting the decline and achieving stability [1]

Group 1 - The A-share real estate sector experienced a strong rally near the market close, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Huaxia Happiness and Shenzhen Deep Housing A [1] - Hong Kong's property stocks also saw significant gains, with Oceanwide Holdings rising over 27% and Longfor Group increasing nearly 21% [1] - Real estate ETFs, such as Huaxia Real Estate ETF and Yinhua Real Estate ETF, rose over 3% [1] Group 2 - The real estate ETFs track the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Poly Developments, Vanke A, and China Merchants Shekou [5] - The real estate sector is benefiting from positive news, particularly regarding debt restructuring progress among several real estate companies [5][6] - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline of 21%, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - The overall market is stabilizing due to policy support and debt restructuring, but there is significant regional differentiation, with core cities and high-quality projects being favored [7] - The sales figures for the top 100 real estate companies showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11% in the first half of the year, indicating a seasonal drop in the second quarter [7] - Market participants are cautious about the real estate sector's recovery, with concerns about the sustainability of policy effects and the timing of new supportive measures [7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization phase in the first half of 2025, supported by a series of government policies aimed at boosting demand and managing risks [2][3][4]. Policy Measures - Approximately 170 provinces and cities have introduced over 340 policies in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high frequency of policy implementation [2][4]. - Key policy areas include inventory reduction, demand expansion, new models, and risk mitigation, with a focus on supporting housing demand through various measures such as lowering mortgage rates and promoting urban renewal [4][5]. - The central government has consistently emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with significant policy announcements made in March, April, and June [3][4]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance in core cities, with new residential sales in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by approximately 4%, while Guangzhou experienced a 16% increase and Shenzhen saw over 30% growth [7]. - In Shenzhen, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [7]. - The sales performance of major real estate companies indicates that 47.8% of their sales came from second-tier cities, while first-tier cities contributed 40% of sales, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.97% from January to May 2025, indicating a structural price increase driven by improved housing quality [9]. - The second-hand housing market has shown a decline in prices, with a cumulative drop of 2.88% from January to May 2025, as the market continues to adjust [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sales volume in the real estate market is expected to remain under pressure, with an estimated total of 900 million square meters of new residential sales for the year [10][11]. - The market is likely to continue experiencing a divergence in performance across different cities and projects, influenced by policy measures, supply-demand dynamics, and urban effects [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate development investment in China from January to May 2025 was 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The new construction area was 230 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year, and the completed area was 180 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.6% year-on-year. The sales amount of new commercial housing was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.8% year-on-year [2][12] - The report highlights that various cities are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including loan issuance for urban renewal projects and adjustments to housing policies to ease purchasing conditions. These measures are expected to enhance market expectations and stabilize the real estate sector [2][12] - In the short term, the report emphasizes the pressure for stable growth and the need for stronger policy support for the real estate market. In the medium to long term, it suggests that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. may provide more room for China's monetary and fiscal policies, which could further stabilize the real estate market [2][12] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Data - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 367.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% week-on-week, and down 3.5% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1180.0 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, and down 28.6% year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 1.6%. The building materials sector index decreased by 1.42%. Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 2.23%, while cement manufacturing fell by 2.2% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with new home prices in major cities showing signs of recovery, although some cities continue to experience price declines [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, new home prices in Hangzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month, leading the 70 cities surveyed, while Shanghai followed with a 0.7% increase [3][10]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached a historical high of 90,691 yuan per square meter in May, driven by the introduction of high-end properties [11]. - The overall sales area of new homes in May was 70.53 million square meters, with a sales value of 70.56 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and 13% respectively [4]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In Hangzhou, the average price of new homes has surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing [3]. - The real estate market in South China, particularly in Nanning, is primarily driven by "just demand," with a significant portion of sales focused on affordable and improvement-type housing [14][15]. - The market in Nanning has seen a continuous increase in new home prices for six months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May [13]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need for policy optimization to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market differentiation is a norm, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities face ongoing price declines [3][9]. - Future developments in Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to push new home prices higher, with several high-end projects set to enter the market [8][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][67] Core Views - The report highlights that the downward trend in cement and glass prices continues, while urban renewal initiatives are actively promoted. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that 5,679 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation from January to April, with over 50% opening rates in six regions [2][11] - Central government financial support for urban renewal is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate real estate market demand [2][11] - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market amid growth pressures and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [2][11] - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize real estate transactions and prices [2][11] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 372.6 yuan/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year [3][12] - The average factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1,205.7 yuan/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 27.3% year-on-year [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [4] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [4] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.82%. The building materials index increased by 0.63% [3][55] - Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with fiberglass manufacturing up by 2.08% and cement manufacturing down by 0.97% [3][55]