2025 年 12 月 24 日 REITs 分红拆解，配置价值如何？ ——低利率环境下的 REITs 价值再审视系列二 相关研究 《 见微知著，把握 REITs 产品脉络 ——公募 REITs 投资指南系列一：从 发行到上市》 2025/10/22 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 | 1．REITs 分红的制度基础 5 | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 可供分配金额如何计算？ 5 | | | 1.2 分红税制对比：REITs vs 股票 vs 其他公募基金 7 | | | 2．已上市 REITs 分红全景 9 | | | 2.1 季节性节奏清晰 | 10 | | 2.2 分红率筑底企稳 | 12 | | 3．REITs 分红拆解的三条思路 14 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of public REITs, highlighting the need for patience in improvement, with various sectors showing distinct performance trends [2][3][4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamentals of the REIT sector remain divided, with resilient performance in consumer and rental housing sectors, while industrial parks and logistics face short-term pressures [7][8][10]. - The consumer REITs benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, showing improved foot traffic and sales [10]. - The rental housing sector maintains stability, with some market-oriented projects exploring diversified income streams [9][10]. - Industrial parks are under significant operational challenges due to increased supply and weakened leasing demand, with no immediate signs of improvement [7][8]. - Logistics REITs show manageable operational pressures, with regional performance varying significantly [8][9]. - Municipal environmental projects exhibit relative stability, but competition and cash flow recovery need monitoring [12]. - Energy projects, particularly hydropower and offshore wind, performed better than peers, but the impact of new energy market transactions remains to be seen [13]. Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a phase of fluctuation, with several concerns including the "stock-bond seesaw," valuation, fundamentals, and lock-up expirations [14][15]. - The current market valuation of public REITs is high, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.28, indicating a need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities [15][16]. - The article suggests that potential catalysts for market recovery include declining long-term interest rates, improved macroeconomic expectations, and favorable policy changes [17]. Distribution Performance - The distribution performance across sectors is increasingly divergent, with most projects experiencing a year-on-year decline in available distribution amounts [19][20]. - Consumer REITs showed an average year-on-year increase of 4.0% in available distribution amounts, while industrial parks and logistics faced declines of 9.5% and 4.3%, respectively [19]. - The article breaks down the adjustments from EBITDA to available distributions into five key components, highlighting the importance of cash adjustments and the sustainability of certain adjustments [20].