RMB Stablecoin Development - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are paving the way for RMB stablecoins [1] - Companies like Ant and JD are developing RMB stablecoins [1] Strategic Goals - RMB stablecoins aim to boost cross-border use of RMB [1] - The initiative supports RMB internationalization [1] - A key objective is to challenge the dominance of the US dollar [1] Challenges and Prospects - Trust and regulatory hurdles remain significant challenges [1] - RMB stablecoins are expected to gain traction in trade and offshore settlement [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Hong Kong's Stablecoin Shift Industry Overview - The focus is on the stablecoin industry, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as a testing ground for stablecoin operations amid increasing global regulatory scrutiny and competition [2][10][39]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Regulatory Framework**: Hong Kong's Stablecoins Bill, effective August 1, 2025, aims to enhance the stability and transparency of stablecoins, allowing for the legal issuance of CNH-pegged stablecoins [2][10][51]. 2. **Strategic Importance**: The bill positions Hong Kong as a critical player in the global stablecoin landscape, especially in light of the US GENIUS Act, which may strengthen USD dominance [2][10][19]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: Stablecoin issuers, brokers, and fintech companies with established blockchain technology are expected to benefit first from the new regulations through various fees [3][11][30]. 4. **Adoption Challenges**: The adoption of CNH stablecoins may lag due to China's capital controls and limited offshore RMB liquidity, with market acceptance expected to take time [5][20][63]. 5. **Traditional Financial Models**: Traditional banks and e-commerce platforms are likely to experience gradual transformation rather than disruption, as stablecoins serve as payment means rather than deposits [4][27][28]. 6. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Futu Holdings, ZhongAn Online, and HK Exchanges & Clearing are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the stablecoin ecosystem due to their strategic positioning [3][33][31]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Regulatory Trends**: The global trend towards stablecoin regulation is driven by concerns over financial stability and consumer protection, with various jurisdictions introducing frameworks to govern stablecoin issuance [13][42]. 2. **Market Liquidity Risks**: The early-stage nature of stablecoins presents risks related to market liquidity and volatility, which require careful monitoring [26][37]. 3. **Integration with Traditional Finance**: The integration of stablecoins into regulated financial systems is crucial for their broader adoption, which may be hindered by existing regulatory frameworks [71][72]. 4. **Real-World Use Cases**: The HKMA emphasizes the need for stablecoins to address real-world payment inefficiencies rather than fueling speculative trading [54][39]. 5. **Potential for Cross-Border Transactions**: Stablecoins could facilitate cross-border e-commerce and financial transactions, but adoption may be slow due to existing payment systems and regulatory uncertainties [34][35][36]. Conclusion - The stablecoin landscape in Hong Kong is evolving with significant regulatory developments that could enhance its status as a global financial hub. However, challenges related to adoption, market dynamics, and regulatory compliance remain critical factors to monitor as the industry progresses.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Points and Arguments 1. **PBoC's Plan for RMB**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) aims to facilitate the opening-up and internationalization of the RMB in a multipolar monetary world [4][5] 2. **Financial Measures in Shanghai**: Eight new financial measures were introduced to strengthen financial infrastructure, enhance Shanghai's role as a financial center, and promote offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance [5][7] 3. **Stablecoins Regulation**: The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing specified entities to issue stablecoins under strict regulations, including maintaining reserves and public disclosures [8][9] 4. **Market Dynamics**: USD-pegged stablecoins dominate the market, with over $120 billion backed by US Treasury bills, indicating a strong demand for US treasuries [11][12] 5. **RMB's Share in Global FX Reserves**: The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, highlighting challenges in RMB internationalization [18][19] 6. **Digital Yuan Initiatives**: The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai is planned to expand the global reach of the RMB [16] 7. **Crypto Market Growth**: The total crypto market cap reached $3.4 trillion by June 2025, showing significant growth from under $2 trillion at the beginning of 2024 [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **RMB Cross-Border Settlement Roadmap**: A detailed timeline of initiatives related to the digital yuan and cross-border settlement systems was provided, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance RMB's global presence [15] 2. **Investor Concerns**: Increased investor concerns over China's economic challenges were noted, which may impact the overall sentiment towards RMB internationalization [21] 3. **Reflation Strategy**: A "5R" reflation strategy was discussed, focusing on fiscal measures and structural reforms to stimulate the economy, with a projected GDP widening of 1.6 percentage points by the end of 2025 [25] 4. **Regulatory Framework for Crypto**: Ongoing efforts to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong were highlighted, indicating a proactive approach to managing the crypto market [30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the financial measures, regulatory developments, and market dynamics surrounding stablecoins and RMB internationalization.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid investment outlook for the China economy, with expectations of a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion in response to weaker data in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in Q2 2025, but notes a softening momentum, suggesting that a fall stimulus is likely to be implemented [2][3]. - Structural reforms are deemed essential for sustained economic reflation, with a focus on social welfare reform, debt restructuring, and improving fiscal governance [3]. - Retail sales have remained strong, particularly in the auto and home appliance sectors, although there are concerns about subdued sales in other consumer goods categories [5][7]. - Exports are expected to slow further, despite a rebound in US-bound shipping, indicating potential challenges in international trade [10][12]. - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing pressures increasing [15][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 2025 data shows solid economic performance, but momentum is softening, leading to expectations of a fall stimulus [2][3]. - Retail sales in June were strong, driven by front-loaded demand in the auto and home appliance sectors [5]. Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion to address weaker economic data in the upcoming months [3]. - Structural reforms are necessary for sustained reflation, focusing on social welfare, debt restructuring, and fiscal governance [3]. Trade and Exports - Exports are likely to slow further, with June showing a decline despite a rebound in US-bound shipping [10][12]. - Container throughput at major ports has slipped sharply, indicating challenges in trade logistics [11]. Housing Market - The housing market is under pressure, with secondary home sales weakening and local government financing facing challenges [15][20]. - Major tax revenues and land sales have underperformed, contributing to fiscal pressures [20]. Construction Activity - Weak construction activities are indicated by subdued demand for rebar and cement, suggesting a slowdown in overall construction [21][23]. RMB Internationalization - The report discusses the roadmap for RMB cross-border settlement and highlights the importance of stablecoins in reinforcing dollar dominance in the near term [27][28].

Group 1 - The world is undergoing significant changes, and the international financial governance system is facing profound restructuring, with China playing a crucial role as the world's largest trading nation and foreign exchange reserve holder [1] - Accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse is essential for achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and adapting to the contemporary global financial landscape [1] Group 2 - The concept of a financial powerhouse is based on a strong economic foundation, leading global economic strength, technological capability, and comprehensive national power, along with six key financial elements [2] - The six key financial elements include a strong currency, a capable central bank, robust financial institutions, a significant international financial center, effective financial regulation, and a talented financial workforce [2] Group 3 - Building a financial powerhouse requires a strong real economy as its support, as a robust economic foundation ensures the stable operation of the financial system and drives financial innovation and development [3] - Historical examples, such as the UK's industrial revolution and the post-World War II U.S. economic dominance, illustrate how strong economic foundations can enhance a nation's financial credibility and governance [3] Group 4 - Financial development must return to serving the real economy, as the essence of finance is to support economic growth and prevent financial risks [4] - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the dangers of financial institutions operating outside the fundamentals of the real economy, emphasizing the need for finance to support real economic development [4] Group 5 - High-quality financial services are essential for economic and social development, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [5] - Financial resources should be allocated precisely to strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing to promote structural adjustment and new economic growth points [5] Group 6 - Developing a global high-efficiency financial market and cultivating internationally competitive financial institutions are core financial elements for building a financial powerhouse [6] - The financial system must address issues of uneven capital allocation and improve financing efficiency to better serve the real economy [7] Group 7 - Steadily promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi is crucial for enhancing China's position in the international monetary system and creating a favorable external environment for building a financial powerhouse [8] - The goal is to increase the use of the Renminbi in cross-border trade and attract international investors to participate in China's financial markets [8] Group 8 - Participating in and leading reforms of the international financial governance system is necessary for transitioning from being a rule taker to a rule maker in the global financial landscape [9] - The need for a more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable financial governance system is emphasized, along with the importance of reforming multilateral financial institutions [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins and the internationalization of the RMB, emphasizing the long-term strategies being implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to enhance the RMB's global presence [17][21] - It highlights the increasing dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market, which has led to a rise in demand for US treasuries [23][24] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The PBoC is focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services in Shanghai to facilitate RMB internationalization [18] - New financial measures include promoting offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance and optimizing cross-border trade and investment [19] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, with over USD 120 billion backed by US T-bills, indicating a strong reliance on USD [24] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins has been rising, with a notable increase compared to traditional payment systems like Visa and MasterCard [22] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [20] - The report outlines the licensing requirements and operational standards for stablecoin issuers in both Hong Kong and the US [20] RMB's Global Position - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, indicating challenges in its international acceptance [31] - The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai aims to expand the RMB's global reach [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - China's interest in stablecoins is driven by concerns over US legislation that could reinforce dollar dominance, with the PBoC exploring Hong Kong as a testing ground for future payment alternatives [1][2] - The development of RMB stablecoins is seen as a potential building block for cross-border RMB settlement, but significant reforms are needed for true internationalization [10][12] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The US GENIUS Act's passage marks a pivotal moment for stablecoins, potentially transforming USD-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars, which could enhance demand for US Treasuries [2] - Stablecoins are viewed as distribution channels for existing currencies rather than new currencies, extending the US dollar's reach into crypto and emerging markets [3] PBoC's Strategy - The PBoC has shifted from banning cryptocurrencies to advocating for a multi-polar global currency system, emphasizing the need for efficient digital payment alternatives [4] - Digital RMB and stablecoins are proposed as viable options for cross-border transactions, addressing weaknesses in traditional payment systems [4] RMB Stablecoins: Opportunities and Challenges - Current cross-border digital RMB transactions are limited in scale, primarily utilizing Project mBridge, with only five central banks involved [5] - The potential for RMB stablecoins is hindered by domestic usage bans, capital controls, and the dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins [5] Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong is the first jurisdiction to pass stablecoin legislation, effective August 1, 2025, which mandates 100% high-quality reserves for stablecoins [9] - The legislation aims to promote USD and HKD pegged stablecoins initially, with plans to introduce CNH pegged stablecoins later, leveraging Hong Kong's liquidity pool [9] Long-term Outlook for RMB Internationalization - Despite efforts to enhance cross-border settlement infrastructure, the RMB's share in global reserve currencies has declined from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024 [11][13] - Restoring global confidence in China's growth potential is crucial for increasing RMB usage, necessitating structural reforms in the economy [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the RMB internationalization efforts Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is advocating for the internationalization of the RMB and a multipolar global financial system, emphasizing the need for securing international transactions over enjoying the benefits of a reserve currency [2][8] - Eight new financial policies have been announced to facilitate the opening of China's financial system and promote the use of RMB internationally [3][8] Summary by Sections PBoC's Remarks - PBoC Governor highlighted the tension between self-interest and global public goods, the spillover of domestic policy, and the weaponization of currency in geopolitical competition [2] - The focus is on securing cross-border settlements rather than the "exorbitant privilege" of a reserve currency [2] Financial Policies - The PBoC announced eight financial measures aimed at enhancing RMB internationalization, which include establishing a trade reporting system, setting up an international digital RMB operation center, and promoting RMB FX futures trading [5][6] - The measures also aim to enrich financial products and services in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and enhance Shanghai's role as a financial center [6][8] Economic Context - The wider international use of RMB is contingent upon a robust economy and progress in capital account convertibility [3] - To restore global confidence in growth, Beijing needs to address deflation and increase the supply of central government bonds [3]