Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific securities Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been lowering the fixings, reaching new year-to-date lows below 7.15, indicating a potential shift in currency management strategy [4][6] - There are expectations for significant dividend payouts from Chinese companies, estimated at approximately $23 billion in July, which may create near-term resistance for the USD/CNY exchange rate [4][16] - Anticipation of domestic policy stimulus and a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi is increasing, which could impact market sentiment and currency strength [4][20] Summary by Sections Currency Management - The PBoC's recent actions to lower fixings are seen as a response to the multi-month weakness of the dollar and narrowing tariff rate differentials, allowing for a stronger CNY [4][6] - The PBoC has also relaxed capital controls, increasing the overseas investment quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) for the first time since May 2024, which may enhance capital flows [9][12] Dividend Payouts - The report highlights that heavy dividend payouts in July could exert downward pressure on the CNY, with expectations of a peak in outflows around this time [4][16] - Major companies are scheduled to make significant dividend payouts, which could influence market dynamics and currency performance [19] Market Sentiment and Policy Expectations - There is speculation regarding potential housing market support from upcoming policy meetings, which could lead to a rally in property stocks and overall market sentiment [20][25] - The report notes that while speculation-driven rallies in China can be short-lived, current market conditions may allow for further equity gains, impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate [20][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Domestic consumption in China is showing signs of improvement, particularly driven by extended sales periods and trade-in programs during shopping festivals [5][10] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations for Brent crude to stabilize around USD65 per barrel by Q4 2025 if de-escalation occurs [2][4] - The impact of oil price shocks is expected to have a mixed effect on different sectors, with a potential drag on real GDP growth and increases in CPI and PPI [4] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Approximately 18% of China's energy consumption is derived from crude oil, with about 70% of this being imported [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China's oil imports, accounting for over 40% of its crude oil shipments [3] - A 10% increase in Brent crude oil prices could reduce real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points while increasing headline CPI and PPI by around 0.3 and 1.3 percentage points respectively over a year [4] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise value (GMV), a significant recovery from a 7% decline in 2024 [5] - Trade-in programs contributed approximately RMB380 billion in sales, representing 9% of monthly retail sales in May [5][10] - Service consumption is expected to grow, with events like the Jiangsu Urban Football League driving increased spending in culture and tourism [11] Fiscal Policy and Support - Fiscal spending has focused on improving livelihoods, with social security and education spending rising by 9.2% and 6.7% year-on-year respectively in the first five months of 2025 [13] - The government plans to allocate additional subsidies for trade-in programs, with a total of RMB138 billion earmarked for localities in the coming months [10] - The Lujiazui Forum highlighted China's commitment to financial reforms, including RMB internationalization and technological innovation [15] Real Estate and Land Sales - The property sector remains weak, with property investment down 12% year-on-year in May, affecting land sales revenue which decreased by 11.9% in the first five months [14][47] - New home sales in Tier-1 cities have also seen a year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [42][52] Economic Activity Indicators - Various economic indicators such as the operating rates in the steel and chemical sectors have shown stability, while coal consumption in major provinces has increased seasonally [16][25][26] - National box office revenues rose by 12%, reflecting a recovery in entertainment consumption [32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [5]. Core Insights - Stablecoins have gained significant traction, with a market cap exceeding USD 250 billion, primarily backed by USD, and are seen as a stable store of value and a tool for low-cost global transactions [2][3] - Recent regulatory developments in jurisdictions like Hong Kong and the US aim to establish frameworks for stablecoin issuance, focusing on licensing, reserve backing, and preventing interest payments to holders [3][4] - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a testing ground for stablecoins, particularly in the context of RMB internationalization, with initiatives to pilot RMB-backed stablecoins in offshore markets [4] Summary by Sections Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has grown rapidly since the introduction of USDT in 2014, with over 95% of stablecoins being USD-backed, facilitating continuous and low-cost transactions [2] - The potential for stablecoins to disrupt cross-border payments is significant, with estimates suggesting costs could be reduced by 90% and transactions completed within 10 seconds [7] Regulatory Landscape - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Ordinance, effective August 1, 2025, mandates licensing for issuers and requires a 1:1 reserve backing with liquid assets [3] - The US Senate's GENIUS Act emphasizes similar principles, aiming to balance innovation with security in the stablecoin space [3] Implications for Traditional Finance - Stablecoins pose a potential threat to traditional financial systems, particularly in cross-border payments and deposit flows, although the immediate impact is limited given the current market size [7][8] - Major banks are proactively exploring stablecoin issuance to maintain competitiveness, with examples including Societe Generale and Standard Chartered planning to launch their own stablecoins [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets Core Insights - Uncertainty around US tariffs has intensified, with a recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs, suggesting potential risks of lower tariffs on China, but alternative authorities for tariff imposition remain [4][3] - Investor sentiment towards China remains negative despite a recent trade truce, with global investors showing interest primarily in sectors with clear earnings growth potential [9][12] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is promoting RMB internationalization as a strategy for de-dollarization, aiming to increase the RMB's share in goods trade to 40% [23][17] Summary by Sections Current Trade Recommendations - Long positions in 3-year CGB (FX-hedged) initiated on March 7, 2025, with a current yield of 1.49% and a profit of +4 basis points [2] Tariff and FX Market Dynamics - The FX market is experiencing a managed fix, with the CNY remaining stable against the dollar, tracking a narrow range of 7.18-19 [4][7] - The CNY has outperformed regional peers despite the broader dollar trend, indicating a degree of resilience in the currency [5][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Activity - Despite a normalization in export activities and a rebound in shipping prices post-trade truce, financial markets in China remain downbeat, with limited interest from local investors to repatriate dollars [9][17] - Local Chinese investors are hesitant to repatriate dollars due to weak economic fundamentals and low interest rates, with a notable shift from net buyers to net sellers of USD [17][25] RMB Internationalization Efforts - The share of CNY-denominated flows in goods trade has increased from 11% in 2018 to over 25% in 2024, driven by PBoC's policy push [23][27] - Commodity-related yuan settlement has risen significantly, indicating a growing trend towards using RMB in international trade [28][23]