五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-04-30 【重要资讯】 1、ITS 及 AMSPEC 预计马棕 4 月前 10 日出口增加约 20%-50%，预计 4 月前 15 日环增 13.5%-17%，前 20 日出口环增 11.9%，前 25 日预计环增 14.75%。SPPOMA 高频数据显示马棕 4 月前 15 日产量环增 3.97%， 前 20 日产量环增 9.11%，UOB 及 MPOA 则给出前 20 日环增 16%以上预估。 2、新闻报道先进生物燃料协会与 EPA 官员会面，敦促 EPA 将 2026 年的 RVO 提高至 57.5 亿加仑，而目 前的义务量为 33.5 亿加仑。2024 年美国生产了近 49 亿加仑先进生物燃料。 马棕受美国关税 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of soybean arrivals in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress the prices of soy - based products [3]. - The valuation of short - term US soybeans is low, and the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to be stable with a mid - term upward trend. Domestic spot soybean meal is likely to decline, while far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The valuation of oils and fats may be suppressed by the decline of the crude oil center. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils and fats will be bearish. However, mid - term factors may support the market [9]. - Short - term sugar prices are volatile, with a tendency to be strong in the short - term but showing signs of weakness in the price structure [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, presenting a pattern of weak supply and demand [15]. - Egg prices may be stable in some areas and have a slight downward risk in others. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then sell short [17]. - The short - term fluctuation of hog prices is limited, and it is advisable to short after the short - term rebound of futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Monday, domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped significantly. The lowest national quotation remained at a high level of 3,400 yuan/ton. The estimated soybean arrivals in the next three months are 9.1975 million tons in May, 11 million tons in June, and 10.5 million tons in July. The inventory of soybean meal and soybeans is expected to increase. The current inventory of soybean meal has dropped to a low level of 74,800 tons, and downstream buyers are still cautious. The trading volume of soybean meal today is 14,800 tons, the current opening rate is 43.98%, and the expected opening rate of soybean oil mills this week is 41.3%, with a planned crushing volume of 1.4693 million tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of the 05 soybean meal contract is 2,750 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and that of far - month contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Short - term US soybeans are under pressure due to the trade war, but are strongly supported. The cost of soybean arrivals is expected to be stable and has a mid - term upward trend. Domestic spot soybean meal is likely to decline, while far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The exports of Malaysian palm oil in April are expected to increase. The production of Malaysian palm oil has recovered both year - on - year and month - on - month. The industry association in the US has requested a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The decline of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils and fats will be bearish. In the short - term, the rebound of oils and fats may be weak, but mid - term factors may support the market [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different trends. The estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of April decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although Brazil has entered the new sugar - crushing season, the shipping volume is still low, and the price difference between raw and white sugar remains high, which is not bearish for raw sugar. In China, short - term sugar prices are strong, but there are signs of weakness in the price structure. Overall, short - term sugar prices are volatile [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers for planting this year has increased [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The news of potential tariff reduction has a limited impact on domestic cotton prices. The domestic cotton market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg prices are stable or declining. The supply is sufficient, the market demand is tepid, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in some areas [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the previous rebound of egg prices, the support is insufficient, and the supply may increase again. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then sell short [17]. Hog - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog prices mainly declined yesterday, with partial increases. The supply in the northern market may decrease, and the prices may be strong; the southern market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, and the prices are stable [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term fluctuation of hog prices is limited, and the pressure is accumulating. It is advisable to short after the short - term rebound of futures and spot prices [19].